From January 24 to 26, in the East 8 Time Zone, Bitcoin once again fell sharply, breaking below the $87,000 mark after a cumulative decline of over 10% since January 14. This downward pressure has drawn significant market attention. On one hand, a Coinbase survey shows that over 70% of participating institutions believe Bitcoin is undervalued in the $85,000–$95,000 range; on the other hand, the Coinbase Bitcoin negative premium index has widened, reflecting the reality of U.S. investors selling at a discount. During the same period, the Solana chain meme coin clawd surged over 110% in a single day, with a latest market cap of approximately $13.09 million. Coupled with Bitget upgrading its VIP system and launching the "Million Club" plan aimed at users with tens of millions in funds, this paints a picture of a market where risk appetite remains alive, and capital is further stratified by size and preference.

Bitcoin's Ten-Day Retracement and the Defense of the $87,000 Mark

● Retracement Timeline: Since the high on January 14 in the East 8 Time Zone, Bitcoin has seen a cumulative decline of over 10% within nearly two weeks. During this period, multiple rebounds have failed to effectively recover lost ground, with the overall trend showing a gradual decline interspersed with occasional accelerated drops. By January 26, the retracement had reached a certain scale on both daily and weekly levels, indicating that bulls are gradually losing key support levels at high prices.

● Key Price Levels and Trading Characteristics: During the concentrated volatility period from January 24 to 26, Bitcoin briefly fell below the $87,000 mark, piercing through previous integer support levels, triggering technical sell-offs and passive liquidation. Compared to the previous high-level consolidation phase, the trading volume near the current price level is primarily driven by active selling, with relatively weak buying interest, reflecting a trading sentiment that leans more towards defense rather than actively accumulating on dips.

● Impact on Bullish Sentiment and Leverage: In the context of a retracement exceeding 10% and a lack of clear recovery signals, the confidence of bullish positions has been significantly weakened. Some high-leverage funds have chosen to reduce leverage or passively liquidate, diminishing the market's upward momentum. Observing the breach of key levels without a strong rebound, off-market funds are more inclined to wait for new price and sentiment stabilization signals, leading to a temporary contraction in overall risk appetite.

Discrepancy Between Institutional Underestimation Range and Real Selling Pressure

● Underestimation Consensus and Data Source: According to the Coinbase survey, over 70% of participating institutional investors believe Bitcoin is in an "undervalued" state within the $85,000–$95,000 range, a conclusion directly derived from the official survey results. For these institutions, the current price range holds certain attractiveness within a medium to long-term allocation framework, reflecting their recognition of Bitcoin's long-term value and scarcity.

● Survey and Negative Premium Contrast: However, within the same time window, the Coinbase Bitcoin negative premium index has continued to widen, currently around -0.169%, indicating that Bitcoin prices on Coinbase are trading at a discount relative to other mainstream markets. The institutional view of "undervaluation" sharply contrasts with the behavior of U.S. investors selling at a discount without actively absorbing the decline, revealing a significant misalignment between medium to long-term valuation perspectives and short-term trading decisions.

● Differences in Long and Short Cycles and Macro Pricing: This misalignment partly stems from differences in assessment cycles and drawdown tolerances among different funds. Institutions often evaluate asset value on a quarterly or even annual basis in surveys, while actual market trading is constrained by intraday volatility, capital costs, and risk budgets. Additionally, there are differing perspectives on pricing macro uncertainties and policy environments; short-term funds are more sensitive to potential risks and tend to clear positions first, while institutions may gradually position themselves over longer cycles.

● Boundaries of Survey Conclusions: It is important to emphasize that Coinbase did not disclose the specific sample size, types of institutions, or detailed methods of this institutional survey in its public briefing. Therefore, the result that "over 70% of institutions believe it is undervalued" should be interpreted with caution. In the absence of a complete statistical framework, extrapolating this view as "overall institutional consensus" carries a risk of bias. Investors are better off viewing it as part of sentiment and expectations rather than a hard indicator that can be directly converted into trading signals.

Deepening Negative Premium Index: Discount Liquidation Dominated by U.S. Markets

● Meaning of -0.169: The Coinbase Bitcoin negative premium index is approximately -0.169%, meaning that at the same point in time, Bitcoin prices on the Coinbase platform are about 0.169% lower than prices in other major markets. In other words, U.S. market participants are willing to sell their holdings at prices slightly below the global average, reflecting a certain degree of active price concession and liquidation pressure.

● Preference for Selling Pressure Rather Than Absorption: Against the backdrop of the index continuing to deepen, this discount is not a temporary liquidity mismatch but rather reflects a preference choice among U.S. investors during continuous retracements—preferring to exchange for quicker liquidity at lower prices rather than taking on absorption risk during declines. The continuation of the discount state inversely indicates insufficient local buying power, with no significant capital seen aggressively absorbing the downturn.

● Multiple Factors of Sentiment and Reallocation: The formation of the negative premium often combines various factors, including emotional responses to uncertainties in the U.S. regulatory environment, and some funds rebalancing or reducing allocations in their asset portfolios. The current briefing does not provide specific policy events and details, so it does not attribute causality to individual policies. However, it is certain that this discount signal reflects a phase adjustment in U.S. investors' risk appetite, position structure, and liquidity needs.

● Impact of Global Price Transmission: As an important U.S. dollar spot trading platform, Coinbase's price discount will, to some extent, transmit to other exchanges and trading time zones through arbitrage and emotional diffusion. In the short term, the negative premium may suppress Bitcoin's rebound elasticity after U.S. market hours and prompt global markets to be more cautious in pricing, with participants on other platforms also adjusting their position strategies based on the selling pressure from the U.S. market.

Clawd's Surge: A Split Between Risk Appetite and Hedging Sentiment

● Surge Data and Volume: On the same trading day that Bitcoin fell below $87,000 and mainstream assets faced pressure, the Solana chain meme coin clawd surged over 110% in a single day, with a latest market cap of approximately $13.09 million. Amid heightened overall market volatility, the doubling performance of this small-cap asset starkly contrasts with Bitcoin's retracement, highlighting the high volatility characteristics of specific on-chain sectors.

● Speculative Preference Not Exiting: From the perspective of capital behavior, even as Bitcoin is in a phase of retracement and rising hedging sentiment, some funds still choose to flow into the high-volatility meme sector, attempting to seek higher returns in short-term trends. The performance of clawd indicates that the market is not in a singular "risk-averse" state, but rather a complex structure where mainstream assets are under pressure while high-risk fringe assets are being speculated upon.

● Volatility and Risk Education Significance: Multiple media outlets have reported that meme coin prices are highly volatile and have explicitly warned investors to be aware of related risks. The current doubling trend of clawd does not constitute an endorsement of investment value; its extreme surge is more suitable as a risk education sample for ordinary investors, reminding them that in the pursuit of high returns, they must fully recognize that potential drawdowns can also amplify exponentially, and assets lacking fundamental support often decline more rapidly when sentiment reverses.

● Signal of Capital Migration from Mainstream to High Risk: The coexistence of Bitcoin's weakness and the amplified trend of meme coins may reflect a reallocation of some internal funds within the same ecosystem—from mainstream targets lacking short-term trend elasticity to high-risk sectors with "story" and high leverage effects. However, the current briefing does not provide complete on-chain flow data, making it difficult to qualitatively define this as large-scale migration. A more reasonable interpretation is that local funds are utilizing hot topics to amplify short-term speculation during mainstream volatility.

Bitget's Million Club and the Stratified Competition Among Leading Platforms

● High Net Worth Club and Client Competition: During this round of market volatility, Bitget upgraded its VIP system and launched the "Million Club" plan aimed at users with tens of millions in funds, further highlighting the competition for high net worth and institutional clients. This move signals that during market volatility and intensified competition, exchanges are placing greater emphasis on retaining large existing funds and enhancing service depth, attempting to stabilize their core customer base through customized solutions.

● Binance Delisting Long Tail Trading Pairs: In response to Bitget's strengthening of high net worth services, Binance simultaneously announced the removal of multiple spot trading pairs, reflecting the leading platforms' tendency to actively reduce exposure to long-tail assets during market corrections as a risk management strategy. By reducing liquidity-thin and extremely volatile trading pairs, exchanges can, to some extent, control risk transmission and compliance pressure during extreme market conditions.

● Acceleration of Capital Polarization: On one end, exchanges are providing more refined services to large funds through mechanisms like the "Million Club," while on the other end, there is a compression and cleanup of marginal trading pairs. This combined strategy may objectively exacerbate the polarization of capital between leading mainstream assets and niche high-risk assets. Large funds are more likely to obtain deep liquidity in mainstream assets and derivatives, while smaller funds may be attracted to the remaining high-volatility trading pairs and on-chain meme sectors, forming structural stratification.

● Impact on Liquidity and Retail Paths: With the adjustment of exchange strategies, overall market liquidity will become more concentrated in a few mainstream targets and higher compliance products, while ordinary retail investors' paths between participating in mainstream coins and meme coins will also change. On one hand, the depth and service enhancement of mainstream trading pairs facilitate low-cost execution; on the other hand, after some high-risk trading pairs are removed, retail investors chasing extreme returns may turn to on-chain or other platforms, further driving the accumulation of risk in off-market or fringe sectors.

The Next Step Amid Price Declines and Speculative Frenzy

At this stage, the over 10% retracement of Bitcoin since January 14, the deepening of the Coinbase Bitcoin negative premium index at approximately -0.169%, and the contradiction with the long-term valuation perspective of "over 70% believe it is undervalued at $85,000–$95,000" constitute the core tension in the market. On one side is the visible selling pressure at a discount in the U.S. market, and on the other side is the optimistic judgment of medium to long-term value in the report, which is unlikely to converge quickly in the short term.

Meanwhile, the doubling of the Solana chain meme coin clawd and its $13.09 million market cap, along with Bitget's service upgrades for tens of millions in funds, indicate that risk appetite has not cooled unilaterally but is intertwined with capital stratification and platform strategy adjustments, forming a complex situation of "mainstream hedging + fringe speculation." Without making predictions about any specific price paths, it is essential to focus on three major variables moving forward: first, whether the selling pressure in the U.S. market will continue or ease; second, the direction of liquidity migration between mainstream assets and high-risk sectors; and third, further strategic changes among leading exchanges in managing trading pairs and high net worth services.

In a phase where valuation judgments and emotional expressions are clearly misaligned, investors need to enhance their discipline in position and leverage management to avoid passively enduring unexpected drawdowns within amplified volatility ranges. For short-term surging meme assets like clawd, it is crucial to fully recognize their tail risks and downside elasticity, treating the high volatility behind them with caution, and prioritizing risk control over return expectations.

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