Many traders' growth paths start from wanting to do everything and move towards knowing what not to do. The market offers infinite possibilities, but traders are limited; they should only participate in trends they are familiar with and can understand. Trading ultimately serves as a mirror, reflecting how one faces uncertainty, pressure, and oneself.
Hello everyone, I am trader Gege. Let's review the thoughts from the previous article, which was updated on the 13th. At that time, the price of Bitcoin was around 92,000, and the strategy suggested that although the 95,000 level was previous resistance, it had been tested multiple times without going short. Instead, it was recommended to short in the 97,500-98,300 range, and the market indeed reached a peak around 97,900 before pulling back. Previous articles have consistently emphasized a boundary, which is the turning point of the rising trend line, and this has been adjusted upwards in line with market fluctuations. The prediction of this high point was quite successful.
After several days, discussing this again may seem a bit like hindsight, but the recent update speed has indeed been slow, and since previous articles have emphasized this point, I wanted to review it today. Getting back to the main topic, let's briefly talk about the cycles and then discuss the short-term trends from a technical perspective.
From a historical cycle perspective, we are currently in a bear market phase, as analyzed in the November article. To put it metaphorically, looking for a sword in a boat, historically, Bitcoin has almost always started to explode a year after the halving. For example, in the last cycle, the halving was in May 2020, and the peak was around November 2021. This time, the halving is in April 2024, with a peak expected around October 2025. History does not simply repeat itself, but it does have striking similarities.
Recently, the investment market, apart from the crypto space, seems to be bustling, especially in precious metals. Money tends to flow to lively places, which is quite normal. To make a joke, precious metals are like Britney Spears now, while the crypto space has become like Mrs. Bull. There’s no need to be disheartened; I also transitioned from the gold and oil commodity market to the crypto space. Every change in asset status occurs when people least believe in it.
In the short term, macro factors are indeed unfavorable for crypto bulls. The conflict in S, the risk of a government shutdown in the U.S., hawkish expectations from Japan, outflows from ETFs, and geopolitical conflicts all present significant uncertainties. Bloodied chips are not easy to pick up; the market is changing beliefs in the most brutal way. The true bottom will be when despair is widespread. In the long term, borrowing a phrase similar to what CZ said to recharge our faith, artificial intelligence is the future. It may not understand the traditional financial system, but it will certainly understand cryptocurrencies.
From a technical perspective, there isn't much to say about Bitcoin because its structure hasn't undergone substantial changes; it remains within a large range. As seen in the recent articles, the lines drawn in the accompanying charts have not changed. There is a probability of forming a doji on the monthly chart. If the weekly candlestick breaks below 90,000 again, we should continue to focus on the previous minor resistance at 90,000-92,000, followed by the 95,000 level. The turning point of the rising trend line now needs to be monitored at around 99,000. This week, there is a chance of forming a lower wick on the weekly chart, so the first support to watch is around 85,000-84,000, followed by the 80,000 level. If a break occurs, refer to previous mid to long-term buying points; friends who don't remember can review previous articles. That's all for today's article; there are no specific strategies, just reference support and resistance for entry.
The suggestions are for reference only. Please manage your risk when entering the market, and control your profit and stop-loss space accordingly. Specific strategies should be consulted in real-time.
Alright, friends, we will say goodbye until next time. I wish everyone success and smooth sailing in the crypto space! More real-time advice will be sent internally. Today's brief update ends here. For more real-time advice, find Gege.
Written by / I am trader Gege, a friend willing to accompany you in your resurgence.
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