From the actual situation, the recent progress on these three issues is as follows:
- Canada and China have not issued any countermeasures. At the same time, Canada has stated that it will not pursue a comprehensive free trade agreement with China. The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded on January 26, stating that the China-Canada trade agreement does not target any third party, including the United States, and did not directly counter Trump's threats.
The market believes that the probability of the U.S. imposing additional tariffs on Canada is relatively low, and Trump's tariff weapon is currently in a state of victory.
Currency intervention may continue, but its impact on the market is not significant.
The probability of a U.S. government shutdown on January 31 has slightly decreased to 76.9%. The market remains concerned about a government shutdown, but since some departments have already received their annual budgets, even if a shutdown occurs, it is expected to be limited to certain departments.
From the ETF inflow data released today, investor sentiment for buying U.S. ETFs, especially those related to the S&P 500, is strong. After a slight decline in the morning, there has been a continuous rise, and the amount of funds flowing into ETFs in January has already set a significant historical high.
Link: https://x.com/Phyrex_Ni/status/2015860822845841632?s=20
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