On Monday, the market sentiment was relatively good, mainly because Trump's increase in tariffs on Canada did not provoke countermeasures from Canada and China. On the contrary, Canada showed signs of retreat, and China also did not make any clear statements, which slightly eased the market. However, the Supreme Court's ruling on Trump's IEEPA is still pending, especially since the Supreme Court is currently in recess, with the earliest decision expected by February 20. Before that, tariffs remain one of Trump's strongest weapons.

Aside from tariffs, the intervention in the yen exchange rate and the potential government shutdown at the end of the month do not seem to have a significant impact for now. Of course, the most important factor is still the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. The interest rate meeting early Thursday morning is highly likely to leave rates unchanged. We'll see what Powell has to say. The next meeting will be in March, and hopefully, Trump can announce a candidate for the Federal Reserve Chair before then.

Looking back at Bitcoin's data, although there was a price drop over the weekend, there was a slight rebound starting Monday. At the very least, the bearish sentiment did not continue to expand, and the trading volume was not very high, indicating a noticeable turnover among short-term investors. Other data still looks healthy, with no obvious signs of panic.

The current chip structure is also relatively normal, with a dense area for $BTC forming between $83,000 and $90,000. However, due to the changes among short-term investors, it is still not possible to clearly determine the bottom area. From recent observations, unless there is a systemic risk, the probability of falling below $83,000 is not high.

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