Author: Blockchain Knight
Yesterday, gold broke through the psychological barrier of $5,000 per ounce, soaring to over $5,100 at one point, with a projected increase of 64% by 2025, marking the largest annual gain since 1979.
This trend stems from investors' responses to three major anxieties: geopolitical tensions, policy uncertainty, and the weakening stability of financial systems.
In contrast, Bitcoin, dubbed "digital gold," has shown a completely different performance, currently trading at around $88,000, down 2% year-to-date.
This divergence is not due to a failure of the assets themselves, but rather a difference in maturity; gold has a millennia-long history as a store of value, while Bitcoin is less than twenty years old, making it difficult to replicate the former's performance during a global crisis.
The core driving force behind gold's rise is the flow of funds and institutional inertia, rather than retail panic. Central banks continue to buy, with significant inflows into gold ETFs, combined with a weakening dollar and reduced reliance on the U.S. by central banks, supporting sustained demand.
Analysts predict that gold prices may exceed $6,000 by 2026, potentially reaching $7,150 during times of heightened uncertainty; JPMorgan expects an average price of $5,055 in the fourth quarter of 2026, with a long-term target of $6,000 by 2028.
The gold market is mature, allowing buyers such as central banks and traditional asset allocators to efficiently respond to pressure signals, showcasing its attributes as a neutral reserve asset.
The risk-hedging transmission mechanisms of Bitcoin and gold are significantly different. The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of $1.2 billion in the first two trading days of the year, but by the week of January 23, it experienced a net outflow of $1.33 billion, marking the worst weekly performance since February 2025, exhibiting typical de-risking characteristics.
The derivatives market has also shifted from bullish to defensive hedging, with a 7-day price spread premium of 2.8% above out-of-the-money put options, reflecting traders' demand for hedging.
Essentially, Bitcoin remains a liquidity release valve; its attributes of being traded around the clock and easily sellable make it a tool for quickly raising funds in a crisis, while gold serves as a safe haven for cash.
For Bitcoin to truly match the "digital gold" designation, several measurable transformations are needed: ETFs must achieve counter-cyclical operations, flowing in during stock market declines and macro panic; the skew in the options market must normalize, reducing the demand for crash insurance; volatility structures must compress rather than temporarily ease; and the buyer composition must transcend opportunistic risk capital to attract long-term allocators like reserve managers.
There are three potential scenarios for the future relationship between the two:
Gold continues to dominate as a safe haven, with Bitcoin only slowly rising in line with its own cycle, making it unreliable during panic periods;
Looser policies drive a rebound in Bitcoin, but the driving force is risk appetite rather than capital preservation;
A credibility shock combined with regulatory maturity allows Bitcoin to capture some safe-haven demand.
Standard Chartered has lowered its 2026 Bitcoin forecast from $300,000 to $150,000, primarily due to a slowdown in institutional buying through ETFs.
Currently, gold serves as a risk-hedging tool for institutions, while Bitcoin remains an institutional investment bet; only when Bitcoin attracts stable funds amid negative news and options do not require a hedging premium can "digital gold" truly materialize.
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