Spot gold surged again during the day due to the FOMC interest rate announcement, reaching an astonishing $5,400 per ounce. Don't be surprised; this is a natural phenomenon resulting from market turbulence combined with the flow of capital.
Take this round of BTC and ETH as an example; it is still Wall Street investment banks working behind the scenes. However, this time the push is clearly more rational. This group of capital did not choose to go ALL IN on CRYPTO but instead rotated their investments. For instance, BlackRock and Morgan Stanley manage ETFs that include gold and silver among other assets. When other categories surge, money will not remain idle in CRYPTO, and similarly, when the next round of capital rotation occurs, funds will flow to where they need to go.
One should not overly trust market trends. As mentioned before, for example, U.S. stocks and the U.S. dollar can exhibit high correlation with CRYPTO under certain conditions, but ultimately, they are different products. They primarily amplify emotions, and their fundamental reliance is on the flow of capital within their respective categories. So, don’t complain that U.S. stocks are rising while CRYPTO seems stagnant; after all, there is only so much money in the pool.
Currently, it is already quite good that Wall Street can provide a safety net for CRYPTO. The timing of this intervention can be seen as inevitable, as market depth has reached this point. The fact that investment banks have not allowed prices to fall through indicates they are prepared for the next round of capital flow, and there are no significant macroeconomic headwinds. Once the sentiment passes, there will be more opportunities for rotation.
Finally, let’s discuss the recent strategy. Previously, it was clarified that BTC and ETH were bottoming out around 86,000/2,800. Currently, the returns from holding are already quite substantial. For short-term high-yield players, it is essential to consider reducing positions or taking profits, as this area is likely to experience selling pressure and consolidation due to being a continuation point from the previous downtrend. Although the weekly structure has found support and reversed within the channel, the lack of a downward pull structure still makes me uneasy. It is best to wait for the weekly chart to stabilize next week before making decisions. The future market has two possible scenarios:
- If a bullish candle forms within the week, it will be seen as effective support, and the remaining holdings can be safely viewed as upward, targeting around 100,000/3,500.
- If the week dips to a lower point, wait for the major coin to hold around 80,500-81,000, and if the market quickly corrects to around 85,000, it will be considered a bottom, still looking upward.
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