1. Federal Reserve Leadership Change Restructures Expectations, Risk Assets Under Pressure

The core trigger for the recent global market turbulence is the nomination of Kevin Warsh, a hawkish figure, by former U.S. President Trump to replace the Federal Reserve Chair. Following the announcement, global risk asset prices experienced collective fluctuations, with precious metals, U.S. stocks, and some cryptocurrencies being affected to varying degrees.

From the market's perspective, there was a general expectation that U.S. policy would lean towards easing to boost the economy, but Warsh's hawkish stance shattered this expectation. According to reports from Yicai, market analysts believe that while Warsh is likely to push for interest rate cuts, the extent of policy easing will fall far short of the previously anticipated aggressive levels. Federal funds futures pricing indicates that the market expects the Fed's first interest rate cut in 2026 to occur in July, rather than the previously speculated June.

This expectation gap directly triggered a wave of selling in risk assets. Market participants pointed out that the Federal Reserve's leadership change is a systemic project, and a policy shift requires time to advance. The short-term market volatility is more a result of adjustments in expectations rather than substantive policy impacts. Relevant analysis can be referenced in "Bitcoin Tests Key Support at 82000-80000, Structural Analysis Indicates Future Trends" (https://www.qinglan.org/31063)..)

2. Precious Metals Face Epic Sell-off, Bitcoin Shows Resilience

Under the impact of the Federal Reserve leadership change expectations, the precious metals market experienced a "roller coaster"行情. Data shows that silver prices reversed from a historical high to a sharp decline within a single trading day, having surged to a historical peak of $120 per ounce in the morning, only to plummet to $75 in the afternoon, with a single-day drop of up to 35%. Gold prices also faced downward pressure, retreating from a recent high of $5600 per ounce to $4718, a decline of 12%. Additionally, platinum and palladium prices fell by 24% and 20%, respectively, leading to a collective downturn in the entire precious metals sector.

The U.S. stock market was not spared either, with the Nasdaq index dropping by 1.25% and the S&P 500 index falling by 0.9%, as market risk aversion intensified.

Notably, Bitcoin, another risk asset, exhibited a divergent trend from precious metals. After experiencing a sharp decline earlier this week, Bitcoin's price quickly stabilized, maintaining recent trading levels around $83,000, above the overnight low of $81,000.

Regarding this divergent trend, market views suggest that global liquidity is undergoing a structural replacement. As the appeal of traditional safe-haven assets diminishes, some risk capital is beginning to reassess Bitcoin's asset attributes, and subtle changes in capital flows are supporting Bitcoin's resilient performance. Paul Howard, a director at trading firm Wincent, pointed out that the cryptocurrency market had previously been pressured due to capital flows into commodities, but current market sentiment indicates a potential for valuation recovery in the cryptocurrency sector.

3. Nubank Secures U.S. Banking License, Accelerating Fintech and Crypto Compliance

Amidst market volatility, a significant development has emerged in the fintech sector, adding a new variable to the evolution of the global financial market landscape. Brazilian fintech giant Nubank has received conditional approval from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency to establish a national bank in the United States.

As the largest digital bank in Latin America, Nubank boasts over 127 million customers, and its entry into the U.S. market is symbolically significant. According to Sohu, Nubank plans to officially launch its U.S. market operations within the next 18 months, and once fully approved, it will be able to offer a range of financial services, including deposit accounts, credit cards, loans, and digital asset custody under the federal framework. The company is currently planning to complete institutional capital raising within 12 months to meet regulatory requirements.

Market analysis indicates that Nubank's expansion is not only a reflection of the globalization of fintech companies but also sends a positive signal for the compliance development of crypto assets. Leveraging its vast customer base and compliance qualifications, Nubank is expected to facilitate the compliant integration of traditional funds with the crypto market, injecting new vitality into the industry.

4. Market Outlook: Multiple Variables Intertwined, Focus on Policy and Capital Trends

Looking ahead, the global financial market will remain in a pattern of intertwined multiple variables. On one hand, the direction of Federal Reserve policy will continue to be a core focus for the market, with the pace of policy implementation and the actual extent of easing directly impacting the price trends of risk assets; on the other hand, whether Bitcoin can hold key price levels will depend on the sustainability of capital flows and the recovery of market sentiment.

Additionally, the globalization efforts of fintech companies like Nubank will also bring new possibilities for the compliant development of the crypto market. Market participants suggest that future attention should be paid to the Federal Reserve's policy direction, global capital flow trends, and the business advancement of fintech companies.

Overall, the market turbulence at the beginning of 2026 is a concentrated reflection of adjustments in the global economic landscape and policy expectations. Under the influence of multiple factors, the asset pricing logic of the global financial market may undergo a new round of restructuring.

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