Gold’s surge is drawing renewed attention as forecasts point to dramatically higher price levels ahead. A bullish outlook suggests the precious metal could reach unprecedented territory, according to a report by JPMorgan on Jan. 29, 2026, which examined how shifting investor behavior may drive long-term gains.

The report outlined a scenario in which private investors raise gold allocations to 4.6% of an average portfolio from roughly 3%, a change that could support prices between $8,000 and $8,500 per ounce. JPMorgan managing director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote:

“The allocations to gold by both private investors and central banks continue to grind higher. We continue to see more upside over the coming years.”

Gold has experienced a historic and highly volatile start to 2026. After a parabolic surge that saw spot prices cross the $5,000 psychological barrier for the first time in January—briefly peaking near $5,586—the market faced a spectacular fall this past weekend. As of Feb. 1, gold is trading near $4,894, a sharp decline of roughly 11% from its recent highs. This correction was triggered by a stronger U.S. Dollar following a government funding deal and the nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair, which stoked hawkish sentiment. Despite the recent crash, gold remains up significantly over the last year, supported by central bank buying and geopolitical tensions. The projected range implies upside of more than 40% from current levels if portfolio rebalancing accelerates.

Read more: Cathie Wood Warns Gold Bubble as M2 Ratio Hits Extremes

Several structural forces underpin the forecast. Households have increasingly replaced long-duration bond exposure with gold, a trend the analysis expects to persist as investors seek protection against volatility and geopolitical risk. Central banks worldwide have also continued accumulating gold to diversify dollar-heavy reserves, reinforcing demand.

The report noted that retail traders have recently favored gold over bitcoin, even as both assets benefit from risk-off sentiment. However, momentum-driven buying has pushed gold and silver into overbought territory, raising the possibility of near-term profit taking or mean reversion. Despite that risk, gold has shown stronger liquidity and broader market participation than silver or bitcoin, supporting its role as a primary hedge within diversified portfolios.

• Why does JPMorgan see higher long-term gold prices?
  Because rising household and central bank allocations are creating sustained structural demand for gold.
• What portfolio shift is driving the gold outlook?
  Households are gradually replacing long-duration bonds with higher gold exposure.
• How high could gold prices reach under JPMorgan’s scenario?
  The analysis suggests prices between $8,000 and $8,500 an ounce.
• How does gold compare with bitcoin during market stress?
  Gold is showing broader liquidity and participation than bitcoin despite both attracting investor interest.

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