Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Although the market plummeted last weekend, the number of trades in the prediction market reached a historic high last week. According to Dune data, the number of trades in the prediction market last week reached 26.39 million, with Polymarket leading at 13.34 million trades; Kalshi had 11.88 million trades, ranking second; and Opinion had 379,300 trades, ranking third.
Data on the number of trades in the prediction market last week
Next, Odaily Planet Daily reviews the recent developments of leading projects in the prediction market.
Two Major Leaders: Polymarket and Kalshi
According to DeFi Rate data, in addition to the historic high in the number of trades in the prediction market, the trading volume of the two major leaders, Polymarket and Kalshi, has also remained high recently.
Last week, Polymarket's trading volume reached $2 billion, an increase of 18.4% week-on-week, ranking first among similar platforms; Kalshi's trading volume was $1.4 billion, with a weekly increase of 8.5%, ranking second.
Looking at a longer time frame, the trading data over the past 30 days shows a clear divergence: Polymarket's trading volume has generally maintained an upward trend, possibly related to the market's increasing expectations for its potential token issuance; in contrast, Kalshi's trading volume has continued to decline over the past 30 days, showing a noticeable downward trend.
In addition to trading volume data, recent noteworthy developments for the two major leaders include:
Polymarket
1. Polymarket has begun charging a maximum trading fee of 3% on the 15-minute crypto price fluctuation market. According to data, Polymarket's official documentation has added a "trading fees" page, clearly stating that the 15-minute crypto price fluctuation market will incur fees. This adjustment indicates that Polymarket has started charging a maximum of 3% in taker fees for these short-term markets.
2. Polymarket has launched a real estate prediction market, allowing users to bet on housing price trends. The on-chain real estate platform Parcl has announced a partnership with Polymarket, aiming to bring Parcl's daily housing price index into Polymarket's new real estate prediction market, where users can predict the rise and fall of housing price indices in specific cities on a monthly, quarterly, or annual basis. Each market will reference a dedicated Parcl analysis page to display the final settlement value, historical index background, and calculation methods.
3. Polymarket has been designated as the prediction market partner for the Golden Globe Awards and has launched a Polymarket Golden Globe prediction market dashboard at the event. Polymarket announced on the X platform that it has been designated as the exclusive prediction market partner for the Golden Globe Awards. Additionally, the official Golden Globe Awards account stated: "The Golden Globe Awards season coincides with Polymarket's prediction season," accompanied by an image of the Polymarket Golden Globe prediction market dashboard.
4. Jupiter has announced the integration of the prediction market Polymarket. Jupiter announced on the X platform that it will integrate the prediction market Polymarket, making Jupiter an innovative prediction platform on Solana, allowing users to directly use Polymarket through the built-in "prediction" feature in the Jupiter App.
5. Polymarket has reached an exclusive licensing partnership with Major League Soccer (MLS). Polymarket announced that it has signed a multi-year exclusive licensing agreement with Major League Soccer (MLS), becoming the only prediction market partner for MLS. According to the agreement, the partnership covers the MLS Cup, major division events, and the All-Star Game, and both parties will launch new fan experiences, including "second screen interaction" during matches to enhance viewer engagement.
Kalshi
Trading on the Kalshi platform requires passing U.S. KYC identity verification, making it difficult for most users to participate, and the noteworthy developments are mostly at the macro level.
1. Kalshi will host its first prediction market conference in March. Kalshi co-founder and CEO Tarek Mansour posted on the X platform that they plan to hold the first Prediction Market Conference in March. Researchers, economists, policymakers, and traders will discuss core issues surrounding prediction markets and knowledge aggregation.
2. Coinbase's prediction market is fully launched in all 50 states in the U.S. through Kalshi. Coinbase recently announced that its prediction market has officially opened to users in all 50 states in the U.S. through its partnership with Kalshi, marking the product's transition from a limited testing phase to a nationwide rollout. This service allows users to trade on the outcomes of real-world events related to politics, sports, entertainment, culture, and macroeconomic indicators.
Coinbase stated that all prediction market contracts are currently provided by Kalshi, which is a compliant prediction market platform regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and more platform contracts may be integrated in the coming months. The prices of prediction market contracts reflect the market's collective probability judgment on event outcomes, and users can manage related trades alongside crypto assets, stocks, and cash positions on the same Coinbase interface, with a minimum trade amount of $1 (USD or USDC).
Opinion: Delay in TGE Likely Due to Market Plunge
Opinion is the first prediction market platform in the BNB Chain ecosystem. According to ROOTDATA, Opinion announced the completion of a $5 million seed round financing on March 18 this year, led by YZi Labs, with participation from echo, Animoca Ventures, Manifold, Amber Group, and others. Additionally, Opinion was one of the top four performing projects in the previous Binance Labs MVB program.
According to official information, on January 26, Opinion's official website added an airdrop binding interface, supporting up to 5 wallets for allocation binding. This move may indicate that Opinion will release a token airdrop.
New airdrop binding interface on Opinion's official website
Furthermore, Opinion's founder Forrest mentioned in an interaction on the official Discord at the end of last year that "the TGE is not expected to be later than February 17 (the Spring Festival)."
Response from Opinion's founder regarding TGE-related content
However, due to the market plunge last week, community members generally believe that Opinion will delay the TGE timing. According to Polymarket data, the probability of the event “Will Opinion officially launch a governance token before February 17?” has continuously declined from over 70% at the end of January, dropping below 15% at its lowest point, and has currently rebounded to 35%.
The probability of the event “Will Opinion officially launch a governance token before February 17?” has significantly decreased
predict.fun: The points activity has reached the 7th week, and the platform's liquidity has improved after launching the Boost points activity
predict.fun is a prediction market platform launched on the BNB Chain, founded by the well-known figure in the NFT space, dingaling. Unlike traditional prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi, predict.fun has achieved a key innovation: the funds users participate with in predictions are no longer idle but can generate additional returns during the prediction period.
On January 20, predict.fun announced the launch of the Boost points enhancement activity, where events marked with the Boosted gold badge will earn more points (the specific enhancement multiplier has not been disclosed), primarily for sports events.
predict.fun launches Boost activity
In addition, to enrich the variety of launched events, predict.fun has introduced the "Number of Tweets by CZ" event, increasing community discussion about the platform.
predict.fun launches the "Number of Tweets by CZ" event
Probable: Liquidity Points Rewards Launching on February 2
Probable is a fully on-chain prediction market platform incubated by PancakeSwap (the platform language can be switched to Simplified Chinese), supported jointly by PancakeSwap and YZi Labs, and will be exclusively deployed on the BNB Chain.
Community users mock the platform for giving points to users who inflate trading volume. Currently, the platform still offers zero transaction fees (including market orders), allowing for risk-free point inflation, or there may be users inflating volume through "self-trading." Apart from the first event having a significant trading volume (previously the first event was whether the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates in February, which has now changed to whether Satoshi Nakamoto will transfer Bitcoin this year), other events have low trading volumes and extremely poor liquidity.
Probable homepage display
Notably, today (February 2), Probable officially announced that liquidity points rewards will be launched starting this week. Perhaps after the launch of liquidity points rewards, the platform's points will be distributed more to users engaging in real trading. Odaily Planet Daily will continue to report on community feedback regarding point distribution.
Probable launches liquidity points rewards
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