Event Review 🔍

Recently, the ETH market experienced a wave of intense fluctuations. The event review shows that multiple signals appeared in the market starting from early morning:

• At 02:30, a large limit order was placed on the Binance ETH/USDT trading pair, with an order amount as high as $14.4338 million, and it remained on the order book for over two and a half hours, demonstrating the main force's determination to support the market.
• At 02:40, the large holder "BTC OG Insider" deposited 20,000 ETH into Binance, valued at approximately $44.96 million. This move was seen as an important signal to strengthen the market's bottom support.
• At 02:44, the U.S. House of Representatives passed a funding bill to end part of the government shutdown, improving the macro policy environment and boosting some institutional interest in crypto assets.
• Subsequently, starting from 03:00, the market was influenced by the main limit orders, large holders entering the market, and policy boosts, with ETH gradually stabilizing around $2,100 and quickly rising.

Timeline ⏰

• 02:30: A large limit order appeared on the Binance trading pair at a price of about $2,100, indicating the main force's intention to support the market.
• 02:40: A large holder entered the market, depositing 20,000 ETH into the exchange, injecting liquidity into the market.
• 02:44: The U.S. House of Representatives passed a funding bill, ending part of the government shutdown, improving the macro policy environment.
• 03:00: The ETH price stabilized in the range of approximately $2,111 to $2,119, with signs of market recovery beginning to show.
• 03:00–03:31: The ETH price rapidly rose from about $2,111 to $2,219, an increase of 5.10%, reflecting quick capital entry and a technical stop-loss recovery effect.
• 03:00–04:25: The ETH price further climbed from the starting price of $2,119 to $2,255 (an increase of 6.40%), ultimately closing at $2,247.92 at 04:25.

Reason Analysis 🔎

The recent rebound in ETH can be attributed to several influencing factors:

1. Improvement in Macroeconomic and Policy Environment
   The issue of the U.S. government shutdown has eased, and the House of Representatives passing the funding bill has reduced market concerns about policy uncertainty. This has led institutional funds, which were originally inclined towards cross-asset allocation, to refocus on crypto assets, improving capital flow.

2. Main Force Intervention and Large Holder Entry
   The main limit orders and large holders injecting significant amounts of ETH into the exchange have effectively stabilized the market bottom. Such capital actions not only directly provide liquidity but also trigger stop-loss recoveries from some short-term investors, promoting a rapid price increase.

3. Market Technical Stop-Loss Effect
   Data shows that the "90-day profit and loss ratio" indicator has been continuously declining and is close to 1, reflecting the current state of weak market liquidity and widespread selling. This has led to some long-term losing positions triggering stop-losses, forming a technical recovery effect that accelerated the price rebound.

Technical Analysis 📊

Based on the 45-minute K-line data of Binance ETH/USDT, the technical aspects of this round of market activity exhibit multi-dimensional characteristics:

• Indicator Divergence and Buy Signals

• The KDJ indicator shows significant divergence, with buying power gradually increasing.

• The OBV (On-Balance Volume) has crossed above its moving average, indicating that buy signals are becoming clearer.

• Increased Trading Volume

• Recent trading volume has increased by 31.97% compared to usual, with market activity significantly enhanced. The 10-day average volume has risen by about 91.51%, and the mid-term average volume has also increased by 49.61%, indicating concentrated buying power in the short and medium term.

• K-line Patterns and Moving Average Arrangement

• A "red three soldiers" pattern has emerged, which consists of three or more consecutive bullish candles, each closing higher than the previous one, indicating a strong bullish signal.

• However, short-term moving averages such as MA5, MA10, and MA20 are in a bearish arrangement, and the price encounters resistance near MA20, indicating that there is still some short-term pressure during the rebound.

• In the long term, the price is below the EMA20/50/120 and EMA24/52 moving averages, which are in a perfect bearish arrangement, showing strong downward trend momentum.

• Currently, the TD Sequential is in a bullish Setup phase (counting 8/9). Although there is some rebound logic, the setup being canceled indicates that the reversal signal has not fully formed.

Based on the technical data from the 45-minute cycle, although the short-term rebound is quite evident, the overall moving average structure still maintains a downward trend.

Market Outlook 🔮

After experiencing a series of policy benefits and short-term rebounds driven by main force adjustments, the future market trend remains full of uncertainty. From the current situation, we need to pay attention to the following aspects:

• Short-term Breakthrough and Technical Correction
  The short-term rebound may bring more stop-loss capital recovery, but considering the trading volume and moving average structure, if the rebound cannot sustain a breakthrough above the MA20 resistance zone, a correction and consolidation may occur in the future.

• Institutional Funds and Market Sentiment
  If the main force can continue to intervene and institutional fund layouts remain stable, it is expected to drive prices higher; conversely, if there is capital outflow or a macroeconomic reversal, the market still faces downside risks.

• Attention to Risk Indicators
  The "90-day profit and loss ratio" continues to decline, indicating that the market is generally under pressure from losses. From a cyclical perspective, market liquidity is weak, and short-term volatility risks are increasing. In this context, it is particularly important to remain cautiously observant and closely monitor key support and resistance changes.

Overall, ETH currently shows signs of a rebound driven by technical stop-loss recovery and policy improvements. However, due to the long-term moving averages being in a bearish arrangement and liquidity tightening still existing, the possibility of significant short-term volatility and adjustments after the rebound cannot be ruled out. Investors are advised to closely monitor macro policy trends, on-chain capital changes, and key technical indicators, manage positions prudently, and maintain a cautiously optimistic attitude.

This article provides an in-depth analysis of recent market events, capital flows, and technical indicators, aiming to offer investors valuable market insights. The market is ever-changing, with risks and opportunities coexisting; rational decision-making is always paramount.

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