This analysis mainly focuses on the one-hour level structure. It was clearly mentioned yesterday that the price was running around 79,000, and it was advisable to consider shorting at high levels, with the stop-loss set above 80,000, aiming for a short position at 80,000. Although no specific target was given at that time, once the previous low was broken, it could serve as a signal to exit the short position.

From the actual trend, the market dropped from above 79,000 all the way down to around 73,000, resulting in a decline of nearly 6,000 points. If one could keep up with this, at least a profit space of around 5,000 points could have been captured.

1. Core Judgment at the One-Hour Level

To look for a reversal at the one-hour level, two conditions must be met simultaneously, and there is a clear order of precedence.

The first condition is that the key resistance level must be effectively broken and held. When the price merely tests the resistance level, it is not suitable to rashly place long positions, whether looking for a rebound or a reversal.

The second condition is that after the breakout, the price needs to form a bullish structure, which is a two-phase rise of "upward—pullback—upward."

Only when both conditions are met can a reversal signal be considered at the one-hour level. Until then, the trading strategy remains unchanged, still favoring short positions at high levels. The position around 79,000 yesterday was indeed an ideal shorting range, with the stop-loss set above 80,000.

2. Review of the Larger Cycle

When the price reached the range of 97,000 to 98,000 and broke through the previous high of 94,000, I had already provided a warning of a potential peak. Subsequently, the market entered a two-phase decline structure at the daily level:
The first phase dropped from 126,000 to 80,500;
The second phase continued to decline from around 98,000 and broke below 70,000.

As of yesterday, the price had dropped to around 73,000. This round of decline signals was shared in mid-last month, and in just over half a month, the market fell from 97,000 to around 70,000, accumulating a decline of nearly 20,000 points.

3. Current Market Perspective

Returning to the current market, the key resistance at the one-hour level has still not been broken, so the trading strategy remains—shorting at high levels is currently the only trading signal.

It is important to note that even if the price forms a bullish structure below the resistance, as long as the key resistance level has not been broken, it cannot be considered a reversal signal. The prerequisite for a reversal must be a breakout of the resistance followed by the formation of a bullish structure.

Therefore, below the resistance, the focus remains on shorting at high levels, with the stop-loss continuing to be set in the range of 79,000 to 80,000.

4. Extension Logic at the Daily Level

From the daily structure perspective, the current decline is very similar to the previous drop from 107,000 to 80,500, belonging to an equidistant decline structure. According to calculations, the lower equidistant low is roughly around 73,000.

Is it possible for 73,000 to become a potential reversal zone? There is a possibility, but no subjective predictions will be made. Its effectiveness still needs to be confirmed by a breakout of the key resistance at the one-hour level and the formation of a bullish structure.

Additionally, at the daily level, the previous low has clearly broken, and according to the previous structural logic, a further extension of about 15% is still needed, with the target roughly around 63,000. The previous important adjustment range is exactly between 70,000 and 50,000, which is also the area I have consistently emphasized as more focused on spot trading.

5. Summary

The overall thinking remains unchanged:

One-hour level:

As long as the key resistance is not broken, continue to focus on shorting at high levels; only consider a reversal after breaking the resistance and forming a bullish structure.

Daily level:
A two-phase decline has already occurred, with 73,000 being a potential reversal zone, but structural confirmation is needed; after breaking the low, further downward extension and bottom formation are still required.

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