The January ADP employment report in the United States shows a significant slowdown in private sector job growth, far below market expectations, reflecting the reality of a cooling labor market and declining corporate hiring intentions. According to the ADP report released on February 4, 2026, the U.S. private sector added only 22,000 jobs in January, well below the market expectation of 45,000 to 48,000 jobs. The revised figure for December was 37,000, indicating a noticeable slowdown in growth.
Regarding the market's focus on interest rate cuts, it is still highly likely that the Federal Reserve will not restart rate cuts before June this year. However, for the June meeting, the market estimates the probability of maintaining the current interest rate at about 44.7%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is around 44.8%, nearly a tie. The weak ADP employment data may enhance some investors' expectations for an early rate cut. However, whether specific policies need further easing requires more data for validation.
In the cryptocurrency sector, following the release of the ADP report, Bitcoin briefly dropped from the $76,000 level to around $75,000, with Ethereum showing a similar trend, quickly rebounding after briefly falling below $2,200. However, around 2 AM and 6 AM, the cryptocurrency market experienced two sharp declines, with Bitcoin breaking below the psychological level of $72,000, hitting a low of $71,723, and as of the time of writing, it was quoted at $70,780. Ethereum's movement was close to that of Bitcoin, dipping to a low of $2,075 at 2 AM, and as of the time of writing, it was quoted at $2,090.
Observing the market and gold prices, it is not difficult to find that the current liquidity of cryptocurrencies is highly correlated with that of precious metals. Many positions in precious metals may have taken profits, but the order book continues to replenish, so the cryptocurrency market is likely to be siphoned off liquidity under these circumstances, resulting in market fluctuations due to insufficient liquidity. Recent geopolitical and liquidity-related risks need to be closely monitored.
This week, the focus is on the initial jobless claims data to be released this evening and the non-farm payroll report to be released on Friday evening.
Bitcoin Four-Hour Chart
From the Fibonacci retracement perspective, the retracement levels from the 90,600 to 70,140 movement include 0.236 at 74,962, 0.382 at 77,951, 0.5 at 80,366, 0.618 at 82,781, and 0.786 at 86,219. Observing the chart, it is clear that each time the price rebounds close to these Fibonacci resistance levels, it is immediately suppressed and falls back. This indicates that all these retracement levels have become pressure points, with none being effectively sustained. This phenomenon is a typical characteristic of a weak bearish structure.
Looking at the Bollinger Bands indicator, the price has been running long-term close to the lower band, with the middle band continuously exerting downward pressure, while the upper band is far from the current price range. This Bollinger Band shape clearly tells us that the downtrend is still ongoing, and the process of decline has not yet ended. A true bottom formation requires the price to no longer cling to the lower band and begin to consolidate horizontally, which has clearly not occurred yet.
The MACD indicator also shows a bearish-dominated pattern. The MACD is deeply below the zero axis, and the red bars that appeared during the rebound were very brief, while the green bars have started to expand again. This means that each rebound is an opportunity for bears to add positions, rather than the main force accumulating at the bottom. The current market trend is the main force operating in accordance with the trend.
The KDJ indicator has been running at low levels for a long time but has not formed an effective bottom divergence structure, with the J value repeatedly probing the bottom. In a downtrend, the low-level stagnation of the KDJ indicator is a norm and should not be simply viewed as a bottom-fishing opportunity. Many novice traders are most likely to misjudge and suffer losses at this point.
In summary, the current market is neither a consolidation nor a false breakdown, but a standard continuation of the bearish trend. This wave of decline is not driven by sentiment but by the structure itself speaking. In short: all rebounds are opportunities provided to bears, and bulls can only patiently wait for the market to truly reach a low point. From the trend line perspective, the descending trend line in the chart remains very intact. Each price rebound has been suppressed below this trend line, with no effective breakthrough formed. This further indicates that the bearish rhythm is well maintained, and the main funds have no intention of stopping the current downtrend.
For the upcoming market, two key positions need to be monitored. The first is the short-term rebound resistance zone, roughly between 73,500 and 75,000, as well as the 0.382 Fibonacci level near 78,000. If the rebound does not come with increased volume and cannot be sustained, it should only be viewed as a weak rebound. The second noteworthy position is the 70,000-69,000 range, where the market may show signs of horizontal consolidation, shrinking trading volume, and technical structure repair, thus gaining a brief respite. However, it must be clear that this does not mean a trend reversal, but merely a pause in the downtrend.
Finally, here are some practical suggestions: do not easily bottom-fish, do not bet on trend reversals, and do not get excited just because you see a bullish candle. The most likely market movement currently is a rebound that entices longs, followed by continued declines. Patience is required in operations, waiting for clearer signals to appear.
Giving you a 100% accurate suggestion is not as good as providing you with the correct mindset and trend; teaching a man to fish is better than giving him a fish, suggesting a way to earn for a moment, while learning the mindset can earn for a lifetime!
Writing time: (2026-02-05, 14:45)
(Written by - Master Says Coin) Disclaimer: Online publication has delays, and the above suggestions are for reference only. Investment carries risks; proceed with caution!
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