Event Review 🔍

Recently, the Bitcoin market experienced a severe fluctuation. In just a few minutes, the BTC price plummeted from nearly $66,000 to below $63,000, and then continued to slide down to around $62,200, a key support area. The forced liquidation of a large number of leveraged positions dampened market sentiment and intensified systemic tremors. Institutional funds withdrew, and a chain of stop-loss orders were triggered, leading to panic selling across the market. External macroeconomic and policy uncertainties, such as partial government shutdowns, international political dynamics, and central bank policy divergences, further colored this storm.

Timeline ⏱️

• 03:35: The market showed initial abnormalities, with BTC price hovering between $66,141 and $65,533, revealing initial risk signals and exposing long leveraged positions.
• 03:35—04:21 (within 46 minutes): BTC price sharply dropped from about $66,141 to $63,825, a decrease of approximately 3.51%. During this period, a large number of leveraged positions were forcibly liquidated, triggering stop-loss orders and rapidly increasing sell pressure.
• 03:35—04:55: Another data record showed the price fell from $65,533 to $62,233, a decline of 5.03%, further escalating market panic.
• 04:26: Some reports indicated BTC dropped to $63,902, further triggering panic among retail investors and market attention.
• 04:52: Multiple news agencies confirmed BTC fell below the $64,000 mark, strongly validating the downward price trend.
• 04:55: The price reached around $62,233, revealing a chain liquidation effect with intense selling pressure.
• 04:58—05:05: Multiple reports indicated further price declines, with some stating it dropped to around $62,634 or even below $62,500.
• 06:20: The latest data showed BTC slightly rebounded to about $62,884.8, but overall volatility remained high, and market sentiment was still cautious.

Cause Analysis 💡

This round of severe volatility was mainly driven by the following two factors:

• Macroeconomic and Policy Uncertainty
  International geopolitical tensions, rumors of a partial U.S. government shutdown, and policy actions from Trump and other high-level officials have weakened market confidence to some extent. Meanwhile, the divergence in attitudes among some central bank officials in the U.S. and Europe regarding interest rate cuts and liquidity tightening has led the overall market to lean towards risk aversion, with noticeable capital outflows.

• Amplified Leverage Positions and Chain Liquidation Effects
  Market data shows that a large number of investors adopted high-leverage positions, and under tight liquidity conditions, stop-loss and forced liquidation mechanisms were quickly triggered, forming a chain liquidation effect. The total liquidation across the network reached several million dollars, with large transaction data indicating a net outflow of nearly $50 million from major funds, accelerating the overall downward pressure on prices.

Technical Analysis 📊

Based on [BTC/USDT Binance USDT Perpetual 45-minute] K-line data, the technical performance is as follows:

• Price Trend and Moving Average Status
  The current price is running along the lower Bollinger Band, overall in a bearish trend; the price remains below the MA5, MA10, MA20, MA50, and EMA5/10/20/50/120 moving averages, which are perfectly arranged in a bearish formation. Among them, the slope of EMA20 is -2.52%, and the slope of EMA120 is -0.93%, indicating strong downward momentum in both the short and long term.

• Indicator Signals

• The KDJ indicator is in the oversold area, indicating a potential short-term rebound signal;

• The RSI has also entered the oversold zone, suggesting that some buying may intervene to form technical support;

• OBV (On-Balance Volume) has been continuously declining, indicating that sellers continue to dominate.

• The MACD histogram is shrinking, further confirming increased selling pressure.

• Special Patterns and Liquidation Situations

• The K-line chart shows a "Three Black Crows" pattern, with multiple consecutive bearish candles forming a strong bearish signal;

• At the same time, a TD Sequential bullish Setup (9) signal has appeared, suggesting a potential reversal after extreme overselling, but the overall bearish tone has not changed;

• In the past hour, the total liquidation amount across the network reached $6 million, with long positions accounting for about 60%, while the net outflow of major funds totaled about $50 million, indicating a relatively sluggish market transaction and shrinking liquidity.

Market Outlook 🔮

Looking ahead, there are two possible directions for market development:

• Short-term Rebound—Consolidation
  Technical indicators (such as the oversold RSI and TD Sequential bullish Setup) suggest a potential local rebound in the short term. If the price can attract some buying in the $62,000–$64,000 range, it is possible that the market will enter a short-term consolidation phase, waiting for clearer fundamentals before gradually stabilizing.

• Continued Downward—Risk Persists
  Macroeconomic and policy uncertainties remain the main downside risks, and ongoing leveraged liquidations may lead to further intensification of selling pressure, making it difficult for market panic to dissipate quickly. If key support levels are breached, the market may face deeper adjustments, and investors need to remain highly vigilant.

In the current environment of severe volatility, it is recommended that investors implement strict stop-loss and position management, while also paying attention to changes in key moving averages and trading volumes. Overall, although there are some short-term rebound signals from a technical perspective, macro risks and market panic remain uncertain factors for the future market, making prudent investment and risk control particularly important.

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