Event Review 🔍

On the morning of February 6, 2026, the BTC market experienced a severe fluctuation. Warnings emerged early in the market about the lack of "whale" accumulation, followed by a rapid decline in price from its peak, and then large long positions were liquidated, with panic selling pressure continuously increasing. Various signs indicated that this drop was not merely a market adjustment. There were constant reports of funds transferring across chains, leveraged positions being closed, liquidation alerts, and institutional account losses exploding, leading to a deterioration in overall sentiment, with investors facing immense pressure both emotionally and technically.

Timeline ⏰

• 07:01 – Initial market fluctuations appeared, with some investors pointing out that under strong selling pressure, there was a lack of "whale" accumulation, warning that the market might remain sluggish for an extended period.
• 07:30 – Selling pressure began to manifest. The BTC price plummeted from about $64,469 to $61,666, with a short-term drop of 4.35%, indicating signs of technical liquidity exhaustion.
• 07:30–08:15 – During this rapid decline phase, the BTC price further dropped from about $64,367 to $59,800, a decrease of 7.10%, triggering a large number of stop-loss orders and leveraged liquidations, rapidly amplifying market panic.
• 08:02–08:14 – Key levels were continuously breached. The BTC price fell below $62,000 and subsequently touched key support levels around $61,000, leading to numerous liquidation and forced liquidation events.
• 08:19 – The market further exposed the liquidation effect, while large accounts faced explosive losses, with well-known institutions facing billions of dollars in paper losses.
• 08:35 – Although there was a brief rebound to about $62,459, overall market risk remained high, and panic sentiment and technical weakness had not yet dissipated.

Cause Analysis 💡

Two core factors lie behind this BTC crash:

1. Technical Liquidity Exhaustion and High Leverage Risk
   High leveraged positions were concentrated in the market, coupled with insufficient buying liquidity, leading to a series of triggered stop-loss orders as prices fell. The effects of liquidation and cascading liquidations continuously amplified, causing prices to drop rapidly. Especially near key support levels, the lack of long lower shadows indicated that buying was slow to enter, further validating the fact of liquidity exhaustion.

2. Dual Uncertainty of Macroeconomic and Geopolitical Factors
   Internal policy friction in the U.S., disputes over fiscal allocations, and adjustments in Federal Reserve strategy, combined with tensions in the Middle East and heightened global risk aversion, created an environment full of uncertainty. The continuous outflow of risk-averse funds also forced investors to abandon risk assets, further exacerbating downward pressure on the market.

Technical Analysis 📊

Based on Binance USDT perpetual 45-minute candlestick data, we can derive the following technical insights:

• Price Movement and Moving Average Arrangement
  The BTC price is currently running along the lower Bollinger Band and is below multiple moving averages such as MA5, MA10, MA20, and MA50, forming a bearish arrangement, indicating that short, medium, and long-term trends are all in a downward state.
• Indicator Signals
  • The KDJ indicator is converging, indicating that short-term volatility is stabilizing, but the overall trend has not improved.
  • The OBV indicator has broken below previous lows, with selling pressure significantly increasing.
  • The RSI is in the oversold region, suggesting a potential short-term rebound technically, but this is more of a technical stop-loss signal rather than a guarantee of a trend reversal.
• Trading Volume and Liquidation Situation
  In a short period, trading volume suddenly surged by 182.18%, while prices continued to decline, reflecting intensified panic selling. Statistics show that in the past hour, total liquidations across the network reached $30 million, with long positions accounting for as much as 87%, and net outflows of tens of millions of dollars from major funds further corroborated the dominance of selling pressure.
• Moving Average Slope and Momentum
  EMA5/10/20/50/120 are all positioned below the price, and both EMA20 and EMA120 show a steep downward trend, indicating that the current downward momentum is strong, making a rebound difficult in the short term.

Market Outlook 🔮

The current BTC market is in a phase of technical weakness intertwined with macro risks. Although the RSI has entered the oversold zone and the TD Sequential has shown a bullish Setup (9), indicating that some market participants may be waiting for a technical reversal, the lack of whale accumulation and liquidity exhaustion makes it difficult to confirm a short-term bottom. Looking ahead:

• Consolidation and Further Liquidation May Coexist
  Under the effects of stop-loss liquidations and passive exposure of positions, the market may undergo a period of sideways consolidation at low levels, waiting for new large funds to enter for accumulation or for deeper bottom formation signals.
• Pay Attention to Macroeconomic Policies and Risk Events
  U.S. policy trends and geopolitical risks will continue to affect market sentiment, and investors need to closely monitor changes in these external factors.
• Strategy Suggestions
  For large institutional funds, a strategy of placing buy orders in batches at lower prices may be more appropriate; while retail investors should remain cautious, avoiding blind bottom-fishing, and it is advisable to patiently wait for market clarity before making entry plans. Additionally, seeking risk hedging and adjusting positions can help reduce the impact of cascading liquidations.

Overall, this severe fluctuation in BTC serves as a reminder to the market: in an environment of liquidity exhaustion and macro uncertainty, investors need to pay more attention to risk control, reasonably allocate positions, and avoid blindly entering the market in pursuit of short-term rebounds. Only through prudent operations can one preserve capital in this volatile storm and wait for potential opportunities in the future.

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