Daily market key data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.
1. Market Observation
On February 6, the global financial market experienced a "Black Friday," with mainstream assets briefly turning positive across the board. The sell-off on Wall Street intensified, affecting nearly all sectors, with only 200 stocks in the S&P 500 index rising. Weak employment market data raised investor concerns about economic resilience, with U.S. job openings in December falling to the lowest level since 2020, and January layoffs reaching the highest level since 2009, causing all three major indices to drop over 1%. Technology stocks were hit hard, with the software sector declining for the eighth consecutive day, related ETFs plummeting 5%, and SaaS software stocks falling to their lowest level since November 2023. UBS analysts warned that the software sector faces existential threats, with large tech companies like Microsoft and Google under pressure due to capital expenditure expectations. (Related reading: The Most Popular Trades on Wall Street Retreating)
In precious metals, the CME announced this morning another increase in margin requirements for gold and silver futures, raising gold from 8% to 9% and silver from 15% to 18%. This move led to a continuation of the sharp decline in spot silver, which briefly fell to $64 but has since rebounded to $73, while gold also saw a slight drop before rebounding. UBS stated that the monthly volatility in the silver market has reached 100%, and there may be severe price fluctuations in the short term. Kitco reported that both gold and silver futures prices have formed bearish patterns, with gold shorts targeting a support level of $4423, and silver shorts potentially dropping below $70. Despite Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC) still predicting an average gold price of $6000 and silver at $105 by 2026, the short-term safe-haven properties have failed.
Meanwhile, the Asian markets are also under pressure, with the Nikkei 225 index dropping 1.57% during the day before rising 0.81%; the KOSPI index in South Korea plummeted 5% and triggered a circuit breaker. Analysts believe that the yield on Japan's 40-year government bonds has surpassed 4% for the first time in over 30 years, which may trigger the unwinding of "yen carry trades" worth trillions of dollars, thereby draining liquidity from global markets. In terms of geopolitics, although U.S.-Iran negotiations are confirmed to take place on Friday, potentially providing some relief to the market, Trump's call for a new agreement with Russia regarding the expiration of the New START treaty, along with Putin's suspension of participation in the treaty, adds uncertainty to the global situation.
Bitcoin has experienced a real halving, but it is the price that has halved, dropping from a high of $126,200 to a low of $60,000, a decline of over 52%. In the past 24 hours, over 570,000 people in the crypto market have been liquidated, totaling $2.561 billion. Formula's founder Vida pointed out that Binance's USD1 financial product attracted about $2-3 billion in arbitrage funds, warning of a potential decoupling if BTC falls to $55,000; regarding future price predictions, pessimistic voices dominate: financial services company Stifel predicts that Bitcoin's price may drop to around $38,000 based on long-term trend lines; analysts from Modern Rock, Butcher, JaguarAnalytics, and GEM DETECTER analyzed data on the maximum declines in previous Bitcoin bear markets (93% in November 2011, 84% in January 2015, 83% in December 2018, and 76% in November 2022) and pointed out that the maximum decline in each bear market is gradually decreasing. Based on this trend, it is predicted that Bitcoin's price in this cycle may drop about 70% from the peak, potentially falling in the range of $34,000 to $38,000. GEM DETECTER believes that Bitcoin's price may attract buying around $50,000, but will ultimately fall below $40,000. Gem Detecter noted that if it loses the $60,000-$64,000 range, it could see $45,000 or even $30,000. Crypto Painter pointed out that BTC has reached the oversold line, and if it does not rebound, it may go to $55,000; he also mentioned that the minimum shutdown price for mining machines is $38,000. (Related reading: No Black Swan, Four Atypical Speculations on Bitcoin's Oversold "Culprit")
The entire crypto market is in a state of extreme panic, with the Fear and Greed Index dropping to 9, the lowest level since June 2022, and market sentiment has reached a freezing point. Ethereum has also been severely impacted, with its price briefly falling below $1800, down over 60% from its historical high of $4950. Cyrili analyzed that ETH has fallen below the main demand zone, and if it cannot quickly recover the $2200-$2400 range, it will further decline. Solana also did not escape, briefly falling below $70, hitting a new low since December 2023. Cyrili pointed out that it has fallen below the main oscillation range, and if it does not quickly recover, the next support level will be seen at $50-$30. The altcoin market is even more dismal, with Delphi Digital reporting that since January 2025, 97% of altcoins are in a downtrend, with an average drawdown of 78%, with only HYPE, SYRUP, and BCH showing gains.
2. Key Data (as of February 6, 13:00 HKT)
(Data source: Coinglass, Upbit, SoSoValue, CoinMarketCap)
Bitcoin: $65,341 (YTD -25.51%), daily spot trading volume $162.27 billion
Ethereum: $1,911 (YTD -35.77%), daily spot trading volume $71.9 billion
Fear and Greed Index: 9 (Extreme Fear)
Average GAS: BTC: 10.06 sat/vB, ETH: 0.35 Gwei
Market share: BTC 58.2%, ETH 10.3%
Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: XRP, BTC, ETH, SOL, DOGE
24-hour BTC long/short ratio: 48.72%/51.28%
Sector performance: The crypto sector suffered heavy losses across the board, with the PayFi sector leading the decline by nearly 14%.
24-hour liquidation data: A total of 571,371 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $2.561 billion, including $1.315 billion in BTC liquidations, $562 million in ETH liquidations, and $188 million in SOL liquidations.
3. ETF Flows (as of February 5)
Bitcoin ETF: -$434 million, continuing three days of net outflows
Ethereum ETF: -$80.7923 million
SOL ETF: +$2.82 million
4. Today's Outlook
Strategy will announce its Q4 2025 financial report and hold a video conference on February 6
Partial U.S. government shutdown, non-farm payroll report not released
The largest declines among the top 100 cryptocurrencies today: Stable down 25.3%, Official Trump down 19.9%, Optimism down 19.1%, LEO Token down 18%, Jupiter down 16.2%.
5. Hot News
Trend Research Deposits 20,000 ETH into Binance, Suspected to Sell 47,000 ETH Within 6 Hours
Glassnode: Over 9.3 Million Bitcoins Are in a Loss State, Hitting a New High Since January 2023
Delphi Digital: 97% of Altcoins Have Been in a Downtrend Since Last January, Average Drawdown of 78%
Santiment: Whale Holdings of BTC Reach a 9-Month Low, Retail Holdings Rise to a 20-Month High
Cryptocurrency Market Loses $1 Trillion in 22 Days, Average Daily Loss of $45 Billion
Yilihua Transfers 8,000 ETH to Binance Again, Liquidation Range Between $1,523 and $1,681
MSTR Reports a Net Loss of $12.4 Billion for Q4 2025, Stock Price Drops 17% on the Day
Saylor's Unrealized Loss Exceeds $10.1 Billion, Tom Lee's Unrealized Loss Exceeds $8.65 Billion
Binance Platform's USDT OTC Price Rises to 7.1 Yuan, Selling Price Rises to 7.03 Yuan
Bitcoin Plummets 15.48% in a Single Day, Marking the Largest Single-Day Drop Since the FTX Collapse
Deribit: Over $2.5 Billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum Options Will Expire This Friday
Suspected Multicoin Capital-Related Wallet Converts Large Amounts of ETH to HYPE Tokens
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