Author: Biteye

In a bull market, "prophets" are mass-produced; in a bear market, it’s the "lie detector."

The date is February 6, 2026. Bitcoin has plunged from last year's high of $120,000, and this morning it even broke through the $60,000 mark, with contracts briefly seeing the "50s." Six months ago, those shouting "eternal bull market" and "must break $250,000 in 2026" are mostly silent now.

We tracked the public statements and on-chain behavior of six major KOLs and institutions during this round of plummet. Data doesn’t lie; it brutally reveals who the true believers are and who are just fair-weather friends.

The only "true tough guy": Michael Saylor's madness and purity

If there’s only one person in the crypto circle truly practicing "unity of knowledge and action," it must be @saylor.

At the peak in October 2025, he was buying; during the plunge in January-February 2026, he was still buying.

When the market panicked after dropping below $80,000, MicroStrategy's buying record was practically a "suicidal" tough guy declaration:

• January 12: Invested $1.25 billion, average price $91,519
• January 26: Added $264 million, average price $90,061
• February 2: Bought another $75.3 million, average price $87,974

In just one month, he increased his holdings by tens of thousands of BTC, raising his total holding cost to around $76,000. This means that at the current price of $64,500, Saylor is showing a massive unrealized loss. But he didn’t wait for "bottom confirmation" like the technical analysts, nor did he worry about "recession risks" like the macro analysts.

For Saylor, a drop only means one thing: it’s on sale, keep going all in.

Rating: Solid (unity of knowledge and action, the only true god)

Real money: Binance; the honest "big short": Peter Brandt

Binance @binance announced at the end of January that it would convert its $1 billion SAFU fund into Bitcoin, completing its first purchase (about $100 million) on February 2. While battling rumors with bots, it’s the real money buying Bitcoin that shows the responsibility of a leading exchange.

Rating: Top-tier (real money supporting the market)

Although you might not like him as a bull, @PeterLBrandt has earned respect with his views. He warned of a "50% correction risk" during the frenzy in October 2025. Now, he’s not being an armchair critic but logically reinforcing his bearish stance. He may not be buying (and might even be shorting), but his loyalty to his trading system is very high.

Compared to those who only turn bearish after the drop, this "hardcore" stance based on technical logic deserves respect.

Rating: Top-tier (logical closure, honest bear)

The observing "theorist": Robert Kiyosaki

Robert Kiyosaki @theRealKiyosaki is still tirelessly promoting his "anti-fiat" philosophy. Although his logic hasn’t changed, his actions are too slow.

He talks about "rich dad" thinking while holding cash, fantasizing about bottoming out at extreme points like gold at $4,000 and silver at $74. In this highly volatile market, excessive waiting often means missing out or being passive. Perfect theory, zero practical execution.

Rating: Above average (valid views, too slow to act)

The fallen "model faction": PlanB and Benjamin Cowen

This round of decline marks another collapse of "model superstition."

PlanB @100trillionUSD's S2F model has once again been disproven by the market. The firm promise that "BTC will never drop below $100,000" has now become a joke. His recent tweets discuss "shallow bears" and "weak bull markets," but there’s no evidence of personal bottom fishing.

Benjamin Cowen @intocryptoverse has also undergone a drastic logical shift. From expecting "new highs" in Q4 last year to suddenly confirming "the bear market has arrived" in February this year, predicting a drop to the 200-week moving average (around $58,000). This huge directional correction caught many investors who followed his cycles off guard.

Rating: NPC (predictions collapsed, for entertainment only)

"Being brothers in heart, but can't get through on the phone": Arthur Hayes

Once the "call king," Arthur Hayes @CryptoHayes, after shouting a target of "one million dollars," has recently fallen into a strange state.

He hasn’t bought like Saylor, nor has he shorted like Brandt, but has started to talk around the subject, discussing macroeconomics, yen exchange rates, and the Federal Reserve printing money, while remaining silent about whether he is bottom fishing.

Rating: Out of touch (come on, say something, don’t play dead)

In conclusion

The ratings are over, and the conclusion is harsh: in this market, only two types of people are worth paying attention to.

1. Like Saylor, who dares to publicly disclose wallet addresses and continues to buy more even with billions in unrealized losses.

2. Like Brandt, who ignores emotions and strictly adheres to discipline as a trader.

As for other predictions, models, and macro analyses? In front of the $65,000 candlestick, they are just noise.

The current price is still below Saylor's cost line. Will you choose to believe those KOLs who have changed their tune, or trust the real money buying on-chain?

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