The world is bustling, all for profit; the world is bustling, all for profit! Hello everyone, I am your friend Lao Cui, focusing on digital currency market analysis, striving to convey the most valuable cryptocurrency information to a wide array of coin friends. Welcome to all coin friends' attention and likes, rejecting any market smokescreens!

Bitcoin is once again in a structural correction phase, having broken below seventy thousand and deeply retracing to the position of 68459. From an overall structural perspective, it is still in a bear phase, which is consistent with our previous analysis. Recently, there have also been several major news items, the earlier correction in gold is starting to recover, and the crux of this correction is attributed by many to the nomination of Waller, leading to fears that Waller may not choose to lower interest rates once in office. There is no need for everyone to worry; Trump's choice was based on the conclusion after the closed-door talks between the two, don't focus on what others are saying, but rather on the policies that come after they take office; perhaps these two have already reached an agreement. After the panic of this phase, gold is returning to the right track, which presents a strong contrast to the cryptocurrency market. As the year-end approaches, Lao Cui may also be making the last article before the Spring Festival, so in this article, Lao Cui will systematically explain several currencies; as the pace gets busier, let’s all cherish each other.

Let's first talk about thoughts on Bitcoin. The technical aspects of Bitcoin are quite interesting, with almost all indicators leaning towards a bearish phase, continuous negative values in the MACD, and the RSI also trending downwards. The Bollinger Bands are fully opening downwards, and the KDJ golden cross situation has basically been digested, with the recent trend showing a parallel state. In terms of technical analysis, there are almost no reversal signals visible. From a news perspective, there are rumors in the United States that the cryptocurrency bill may pass within this year, or even in the first half of the year, but it's reiterated that this bill is not necessarily positive; we still need to look at the details to see if it places a golden hoop on cryptocurrency. If regulation can pinpoint details and bring fundamental changes in other aspects, directly eliminating the concept of decentralization, then a market crash could happen afterward, which is highly likely. Therefore, we should not be overly blindly optimistic; the bill may not necessarily promote the cryptocurrency space; it is primarily necessary to observe the intent behind the promotion.

Lao Cui has the most confidence in one thing: the views of institutions. Although the current round of selling has basically ended, the largest sellers are not from the cryptocurrency sector (and cannot be elaborated), whether they will sell again afterward is a difficult question to answer. In Lao Cui's view, opinions are not unified; this should be a sale conducted on an annual basis, with previous stocks no longer being sold off. It can be seen that the giants in the cryptocurrency space still remain optimistic about the growth in the future, thus we can only define this current decline as a handover process among the giants. Overall, there’s no need for everyone to find reasons for short-term rises; it’s highly likely to maintain a sideways fluctuation range. From a technical perspective, I need to wait for the emergence of a strong bullish candle, which corresponds to O'Neill's pattern. We are in a phase of shrinking corrections, and the volatility will become smaller and smaller until a strong bullish breakout candle with increased volume breaks through the resistance level. This also aligns with the need for some story in the news to prompt action; once a story surfaces, the market will completely reverse.

Lao Cui also mentioned earlier that a long bearish candle must appear, and it must be significantly long. Although the bottom level at the sixty thousand mark has formed, the bearish candle has not yet arrived. At first glance, there seems to be room for a retracement, but at this stage, we must confirm whether the downtrend's bottom still exists. The conditions for confirmation are also very clear: it must hold the bottom price steadily higher, as the bottom price reflects the dealer's mentality. They must start to cherish their holdings for a rebounding signal to emerge. The confirmation of an outbreak is when the price breaks through the resistance line with sufficient transaction volume, indicating the establishment of a new upward trend. Based on this current setup for Bitcoin, there’s feedback from dealers cherishing their holdings; the sixty thousand mark has not allowed any retail investors to enter, and this is also the level Trump desires, making the confirmation at sixty thousand extremely important. The depth will not exceed five thousand points, and the feedback from the transaction volume is very clear; at the moment sixty thousand is established, Bitcoin inflows reach over a billion.

Having discussed so much about Bitcoin, I just hope everyone doesn’t speculate recklessly. Contraction is meant for better rises; this current trend may just be to connect with some giants who haven't boarded the train, in order to arrive at a higher position. Returning to the comparison with Ethereum, the patterns of both Ethereum and Bitcoin are nearly identical, so Lao Cui will not elaborate on the technical aspects. Instead, Lao Cui will discuss the news aspect; everyone should be clear that currently, the most stable cryptocurrency in the space, which can handle substantial amounts of funds, is only Ethereum. It balances the characteristics of security and fast computation. If you believe that cryptocurrency is the future, then Ethereum will definitely occupy an irreplaceable role in that future. It has multiple identities and will survive long-term. Its future, in some respects, will not be weaker than Bitcoin, though its founder is indeed rather unreliable.

This current correction in Ethereum is more directed at giants like Yi Lihua and similar retail investors. As mentioned in Lao Cui's previous article, selling hundreds of thousands of Ethereum surprisingly led to an upward market trend. Perhaps this trap has long been prepared to end; Ethereum's rebound may very well come before Bitcoin, and the growth potential of Ethereum will certainly be greater than that of Bitcoin. There’s no need for everyone to worry too much; both of these currently belong to the trading range within the cryptocurrency market. To achieve explosive growth, a significant story connection is needed; perhaps it only requires a rate cut, or it could just be one word from Trump, and that’s all. Therefore, for those holding spot positions, do not over-worry about short-term trends; just look at the trends for the second half of the year. As for the SOL token, it has some taboos; this is the cryptocurrency Lao Cui has highly esteemed for the past three years, and I also hold a large amount of it. This token started from single-digit price points, all the way up to around 300, and I haven't liquidated, still holding it; however, just as a horse stumbles, the last wave of losses was so severe. In the 25-year spot market, as long as you enter, you will be stuck.

This is the cryptocurrency in which Lao Cui has more confidence than Bitcoin and Ethereum. The top global bank, Standard Chartered, lowered the end-of-year target price for SOL from 310 to 250 this year, citing that SOL relies too heavily on the MEME series and is transitioning too slowly. Institutions are basically bearish on SOL, which ironically makes Lao Cui more confident in SOL’s reversal. Lao Cui has seen data showing that more SOL has been withdrawn from exchanges; within just a week, 1.5 million have moved to private wallets, and the number of active SOL addresses is continuing to double, which also provides Lao Cui with insights into the movements. The entire SOL ecosystem is operating extremely well, and it is even the only cryptocurrency in the entire market that is experiencing an increase in users. Nearly ten billion have been issued through the SOL channel using USDC, and the sign Lao Cui sees is that there will be new highs this year. Within the downward space, any data cannot lie; downturns also represent opportunities. As long as one holds onto the year-end position, feedback will certainly be given.

Lao Cui summarizes: Many friends hope that Lao Cui provides a specific price point. From the current market analysis, the bottom position of the cryptocurrency market is essentially clear. However, the sideways fluctuations will sustain for a period, and it’s possible for lower positions to still appear, so Lao Cui hasn't given a price point recently; many issues still lie with oneself. Lao Cui's entry price is much higher than everyone else's; the only advantage is a slightly better mindset. Lao Cui also sees many analyses that are priced lower than Lao Cui's psychological price, perhaps due to counterproductive psychology at play. The current clues don’t let Lao Cui see lower prices. For example, SOL at 20-30 USD, Lao Cui feels it cannot hold. Of course, dangerous tokens like BNB and Dogecoin, Lao Cui does not recommend holding. For those of you looking to trade spot, pay more attention to Bitcoin and Ethereum. Previously, I advised against buying because I thought the price was too high and lacked sufficient returns; these two tokens have the potential to double in the new year, so for those with the need for cash to buy spot, it should be prioritized for SOL. Providing a psychological price point from a linear perspective, Bitcoin at 67 is a short-term support, Ethereum at 1950 is relatively stable, and SOL at 80 is stable (for contract users), these three points all have the potential for a rebound. Keep returns controlled at 50%, do not hold long positions; long-term can only be spot purchases!

Original content created by WeChat Official Account: Lao Cui Talks Coins. For help, please contact directly.

Lao Cui's Message: Investing is like playing chess; a master can foresee five moves, seven moves, or even a dozen moves, while a novice can only see two or three moves. A master pays attention to the overall situation, strategizes for the grand trend, not focusing on individual pieces and places, with the ultimate goal of winning the game; while a novice fights for every inch, frequently switches between bullish and bearish, only fighting for short-term lines, resulting in frequent entrapments.

This material is for educational reference only and does not constitute buy/sell advice. Trading based on it is at your own risk!

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