Brothers, tonight the non-farm payroll data will shake the market, and the situation is about to change! Have you noticed that the market has been so stagnant these past two days that it's unsettling? It's not that there’s no movement; it's waiting for the U.S. non-farm payroll data at 21:30 tonight, waiting for a trigger to break the deadlock.
The market expects an addition of 70,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.4%, but a bunch of economists have secretly poured cold water: the real data is likely much lower than expected, even close to zero growth, and annual revisions may wipe out millions of jobs in one go.
If the data is weak, the dollar will have to kneel, gold will rebound, and calls for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates will be louder. Additionally, with new chairman Kevin Warsh taking office, pressured to cut rates, it wouldn’t be surprising if the dollar falls by 10% this year.
Apart from the explosive data, geopolitical risks are also at a high, with the U.S. wanting to seize Iranian oil tankers; if Iran gets anxious, it may close the strait. The U.S. stock market is also struggling, with the AI sector panicking collectively; the S&P 500 could drop by 20% at worst, while global risk assets are shivering.
To sum it up in one sentence: the macro environment is filled with thunder, and it's hard for crypto to stand out on its own.
Speaking of the crypto market, what is Bitcoin doing right now? Is it in a shallow bear market or is it going to fall into a deep bear market?
These past two days, after Bitcoin broke through a critical channel, it has been fluctuating around 65k. This level is not just an arbitrary support.
To put it simply, this is the real average holding cost of the market after excluding those dormant coins that haven't moved at all. If 65k holds, it's still just a consolidation at the bottom; if it doesn't hold, it will drop straight from a shallow bear into a deep bear, making it difficult to climb back up.
My personal view is that the 6.5k-70k range is a crucial support area, with 66k-68k being leveraged chips that the main players love to liquidate, while the upper range of 72k-75k needs to reclaim in the short term to avoid a drop towards 60k.
Many brothers will ask: where exactly is the bottom?
Some say 60k is the bottom, others say if the RSI breaks 37, it will drop to 52k or even 42k, with some extreme views seeing it drop to 40k-50k.
I believe that enough leverage has been liquidated, with no one buying in the spot market, and volume isn't picking up. Saying it's a bottom isn’t wrong, but expecting a significant rise right now is essentially impossible. We must wait for ETF funds to return, premiums to turn positive, and the basis to stabilize for a real trend to emerge.
Apart from Bitcoin, everyone is also concerned about Ethereum dropping like this. Can we buy the dip now?
Indeed, Ethereum has been much weaker than Bitcoin, having dropped below 2000 dollars for several days, swirling below it, with confidence shattered. But brothers, let me tell you a truth: the more it falls, the more opportunities are hidden within.
The 1890 dollar mark is a "perfect bottom" on the technical front, and the MVRV indicator clearly shows: now is the golden window of "others' fear is my greed." Chain data can also be misleading: ETH withdrawals from exchanges have surged, in the 1800-2000 dollar range, the main players are secretly accumulating. However, the only thing to note is that it hasn't dropped to the extreme position of a bear market yet. Historically, it's normal for it to consolidate between 1300-2000 dollars for months. So what we need to do is: don't panic when it drops, and don't rush in when it rebounds. Ethereum is currently in a bottoming phase; there's no need to rush.
One could say at this stage that being anxious is of no use. From the beginning of the year until now, Bitcoin has dropped by 23.43%, Ethereum has dropped by 34.32%, and the market fear index has reached 11, indicating extreme fear, almost leading to psychological trauma. The altcoin sector is also on a downward trend, with meme coins leading the drop by over 4.5%. It can be said that no real bottom signal has emerged yet, which is the most frustrating phase.
I know if brothers are just looking at the K-line, they're definitely feeling anxious. So, let's see what institutional players are doing; perhaps you’ll feel more grounded.
As of February 10, ETF fund flows show: Bitcoin had a net inflow of 167 million, buying for three consecutive days, while Ethereum ETF saw a slight outflow, but Grayscale's ETH still has net inflow. XRP and SOL ETFs also had small inflows.
Got it?
Institutions haven't run away; they are still slowly accumulating at lower levels. This drop is killing leverage, emotions, and retail investors, not the fundamentals. What is the scariest thing about a bear market? It's not the crash; it's slowly losing everything!
In a bear market, you must stretch your sense of time! Stretch! Stretch some more! Many people have it wrong: losing in a bull market happens in an instant, FOMO gets you to all-in, and it goes to zero right away; but losing in a bear market is like a frog in boiling water, you play with small positions every day, losing a little each day, and after ten or a hundred times, your principal is unknowingly gone. Do you think small losses are no big deal? The most dangerous thing in a bear market is not a crash; it’s frequent trading, slowly grinding you down.
So, brothers, take my advice: reduce the frequency of your trades. Change from three times a day to three times a week, and ideally to three times a month. If there are no absolutely certain opportunities, then just do nothing! If you don’t understand or aren’t confident, keep your hands off; that’s how to profit.
As for how the short term will unfold and how much room Bitcoin has, I personally believe that if Bitcoin fails to reclaim 70,000, the price will continue to drop, possibly hitting a low of around 66,000. Strong support is at 64,700. Some think it will keep dropping, but I believe the probability of dropping below 60,000 in the short term is very, very low!
If there’s a big drop in the U.S. stock market tonight, yet Bitcoin can hold above 64,000 without dropping, and show divergence, then that would be a short-term money-making opportunity to go long.
As for tonight's non-farm payroll data, I think there are two situations that could occur. One is a second washout, which is a commonly used tactic by the main players: first a sharp drop to clear leverage, then a pump to entice more long positions, causing retail investors to jump in, and then a slow decline to shake off the weak hands, before the main players accumulate enough positions to launch a violent rally.
The second situation is that the main players remain inactive, opting for sideways accumulation. While everyone is waiting for a second dip to buy the bottom, the main players might not give that chance, instead accumulating sideways in the 67,000-72,000 range, once they have enough positions, they’ll just shoot up, leaving retail investors behind, missing the bus.
Based on my recent observations of how the main players operate, I think the likelihood of the first scenario is quite high. If the market spikes back to 70k but fails to hold, I recommend going short. If it holds above 70k and rebounds to above 71k, then decisively close short positions and switch to long.
The market is changing, and the main players are performing, but human nature remains unchanged. Brothers, no matter how you operate, I think it’s wise to make plans in advance; no matter how the main players try to wash you out, they won't catch you.
With the non-farm data approaching, volatility will increase. Don’t chase the rise, don’t panic sell, don’t open trades recklessly, and don’t hold onto losing positions. If you can’t understand the current market conditions, just stay in cash; if there’s no certainty, don’t act. Doing less is winning; surviving will allow you to benefit from the next bull market.
The Spring Festival is just around the corner. Instead of staring at the market all day making trades, it’s better to spend more time with family and kids during the holiday. The goal of making money is to improve the lives of yourself and your family. If the market isn’t performing, just stop and take a good rest. In the cryptocurrency space, there will always be opportunities to make money; sometimes, a step back is to prepare for a higher leap next time. #U.S. Retail Data Falls Short of Expectations #U.S. Tech Fund Net Flow #Yi Lihua Cuts Losses and Liquidates #When to Buy the Dip? #Non-Farm Data
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