What to know : Coinbase shares rose 12% even as the company missed fourth-quarter revenue and profit expectations and reported a significant hit from unrealized crypto and strategic investment losses. Several analysts cut their price targets and flagged near-term earnings and consumer monetization pressures. However, analysts highlighted the company's growing derivatives business, stablecoin footprint and subscription offerings as signs of a more diversified model.
Shares of Coinbase (COIN) jumped 12% Friday despite the crypto exchange missing fourth-quarter earnings expectations, as analysts reacted to the report with a mix of caution on short-term pressures and optimism about the company’s evolving business model.
The company posted net revenue of $1.71 billion, below Wall Street estimates of $1.81 billion, while its core operating profit (adjusted EBITDA) came in at $566 million, missing the consensus of around $653 million.
Coinbase reported a net loss of $667 million under generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP), primarily due to a $718 million unrealized loss on its crypto investment portfolio and a $395 million loss on strategic investments.
Barclays analyst Benjamin Budish called Q4 “a miss across the board,” citing weak transaction and subscription revenues alongside higher-than-expected operating expenses. Budish lowered his price target to $149 from $258, writing that trading activity, stablecoin-related interest income and crypto asset prices still account for most of Coinbase’s performance.
Still, he acknowledged encouraging trends, including a rise in Coinbase’s share of the USDC market cap, a growing subscriber base for Coinbase One and continued share buybacks, which reduced the share count by roughly 8% quarter-over-quarter.
Benchmark’s Mark Palmer echoed a more bullish long-term view. While headline results missed, Palmer pointed to Coinbase’s growing derivatives business, expanding product suite and stablecoin adoption as signs that the company is becoming more “diversified and durable.” He maintained a buy rating on the stock but cut his price target in half to $267 from $421.
Clear Street’s Owen Lau noted that Coinbase’s consumer monetization is under pressure, with the retail take rate falling from 1.43% in Q3 to 1.31% in Q4. That decline, driven by a shift to advanced trading tools and the Coinbase One subscription model, reduced per-trade revenue but was partially offset by stronger engagement and cross-sell. He cut his price target to $277 from $344, citing a prolonged crypto downturn, weak retail participation and a more hawkish macro backdrop.
Despite the weak print, Lau said Coinbase’s longer-term positioning looks stronger. The company now has 12 business lines generating over $100 million in annualized revenue, including two at more than $1 billion. Its base-layer network, derivatives platform and growing stablecoin infrastructure show signs of broader utility beyond trading, he indicated.
JPMorgan also lowered its price target on COIN after the report, citing near-term earnings pressure.
Still, Coinbase reiterated its commitment to remaining adjusted EBITDA positive across market cycles, supported by $14.1 billion in total available resources. Management said it continues to buy back stock and accumulate bitcoin using a portion of operating income.
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