Market volatility is reshaping bitcoin forecasts as macroeconomic risks evolve. Bitmex co-founder and Maelstrom CIO Arthur Hayes published an essay on Feb. 17 detailing BTC’s conditional downside risk below $60K and a potential surge tied to future Federal Reserve intervention.
The Bitmex co-founder identified bitcoin’s drop from its October 2025 high of $126K to around $60K as a key inflection point and outlined two possible paths for price action. He detailed:
“There are two scenarios for bitcoin and shitcoins. Either bitcoin’s dump from $126,000 to $60,000 was the entire downward move and stonks will catch up, or bitcoin will dump further as stocks meet their maker.”
“It behooves punters to limit the use of leverage and wait for the all-clear from the Fed that it’s time to dump filthy fiat and ape into risky assets with wanton abandon,” he added.
Hayes also described bitcoin as a “fiat liquidity fire alarm,” arguing that its divergence from the Nasdaq reflects mounting credit stress linked to AI-driven job displacement. Addressing the broader liquidity cycle, he stated:
“The surge in fiat credit creation pumps bitcoin decisively off its lows, and the future expectation of increased fiat creation to save the banking system propels bitcoin to a new all-time high.”
Beyond price levels, the essay projected significant labor disruption from artificial intelligence and its spillover into credit markets and bank balance sheets. Hayes wrote:
“Shit is getting real, and millions of knowledge workers will swallow their pride and apply for a government handout like a welfare king or queen from the hood.”
He contended that rising defaults at smaller, non-systemic banks would eventually compel policymakers to introduce emergency liquidity measures, emphasizing: “This AI financial crisis will restart the money printing machine for realz.” In that environment, he anticipates bitcoin moving above its prior $126,000 peak following a formal announcement of coordinated monetary support.
- What are Arthur Hayes’ key bitcoin price scenarios amid current market volatility?
Arthur Hayes outlines two investor-focused scenarios: either bitcoin’s drop from $126K to $60K marked the cycle low before equities catch up, or BTC could fall further below $60K if stock markets deteriorate alongside tightening macro conditions. - Why does Hayes warn investors to limit leverage in crypto markets?
Hayes advises reducing leverage until the Federal Reserve signals renewed liquidity support, as premature risk-taking before monetary easing could expose investors to deeper downside volatility. - How could Federal Reserve intervention impact bitcoin’s next bull cycle?
According to Hayes, a restart of large-scale fiat liquidity and coordinated monetary support to stabilize banks could drive bitcoin above its previous $126K all-time high as capital rotates into scarce digital assets. - What macroeconomic risks does Hayes link to bitcoin’s outlook?
Hayes connects AI-driven job displacement, rising credit stress at smaller banks, and potential defaults to a broader liquidity crisis that may initially pressure BTC but ultimately trigger money printing that benefits long-term crypto investors.
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