Author: Blockworks

Translator: Deep Tide TechFlow

Deep Tide Introduction: Strategy holds nearly 680,000 bitcoins, but its financing model is quietly shifting. From zero-interest convertible bonds in 2024 to high-cost preferred stocks and dilutive equity issuances in 2026, the bitcoin content per share is being diluted. This article breaks down the actual impact of this structural change on BTC prices—worth noting is that its buying will shift from continuous to intermittent.

Strategy has once again become a visible treasury buyer in the bitcoin market, but the financing background is vastly different compared to 2024-2025.

At the end of December last year, Strategy completed a round of financing but deployed almost no funds into bitcoin. From December 29 to 31, the company sold 1,255,911 shares of MSTR, raising a net of $195.9 million, yet only purchased 3 bitcoins. Entering January, deployments resumed: from January 1 to 4, they sold an additional 735,000 shares, netting $116.3 million, and purchased 1,283 bitcoins at an average price of $90,391 per coin, costing $116 million, thus increasing total holdings to 673,783 bitcoins.

The more critical signal lies in the change in financing structure. From 2024 to early 2025, Strategy financed at low costs through convertible bonds—cash coupon rates only ranged from 0.625% to 2.25%, after which several zero-interest convertible bonds were issued. This strategy works best when MSTR trades at a premium to bitcoin NAV (mNAV > 1), as the equity option value itself is appealing.

Looking at a longer timeframe, the marginal buying in 2025 essentially comes from two sources: spot ETFs and Strategy. From the cumulative increase chart, Strategy consistently matched ETF fund inflows for a considerable period throughout the year, indicating that at certain stages, its influence on prices could rival that of the ETF group.

The conditions for 2026 are clearly weaker. As mNAV narrows, the financing approach shifts to preferred stocks with costs reaching double digits and ATM common stock issuances that have a dilutive effect, making it challenging for Strategy to continue large-scale purchases without worsening the bitcoin content per share. Strategy remains a barometer for market sentiment, but its buying pressure will be more moderate and intermittent, with ETF fund flows and overall cryptocurrency market risk appetite becoming more reliable price-determining forces.

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