This week, Bitcoin prices have repeatedly fluctuated around 65,000 USD, a level regarded by the market as the psychological and cost defense line for bulls in this round of market. Amidst this price stagnation, institutional funds have been continuously withdrawn from investment products, while the positions and leverage in derivatives have cooled down simultaneously. The liquidity at both the spot and futures ends has significantly weakened, making the gain and loss of this defense line full of uncertainty. This article will revolve around the three clues of the selling off by treasury companies, the outflow of funds from investment products, and the contraction of futures leverage, interweaving to present who is retreating, who is still holding firm behind the current "65,000 defense battle," and what this means for the upcoming market structure.
Sixty-five thousand as the battleground midpoint: The price level bulls most unwilling to lose
● Overlapping psychology and cost: Market analyst Murphy points out that the vicinity of 65,000 USD is an important psychological and cost zone for bulls. This view currently remains a single-source opinion. The price has oscillated multiple times in this range, indicating that many medium and short-term bulls have their positions and breakeven points concentrated here; once it is completely breached, it will swiftly touch their risk tolerance bottom line.
● Extended fluctuations reflect divergence: Bitcoin's oscillation around the 65,000 USD mark has been prolonged, with prices neither swiftly rebounding to new highs nor experiencing a liquidity-induced collapse. This resembles a sustained tug-of-war. Buyers are unwilling to significantly increase their positions under the current macro and funding environment, while sellers have not formed a unified panic exit; the widening divergence has replaced a unidirectional trend, resulting in a "time for space" stalemate.
● Confidence anchoring effect: The gains and losses at this price level are being simultaneously observed by both external and internal parties. For external observing funds, whether 65,000 USD can be maintained will affect whether they view this adjustment as a "reasonable correction" or a "trend reversal"; for internal bulls leveraging, this is a critical watershed for adding margin, passive reductions, or complete withdrawals. Once the defense line is confirmed to be breached, bulls' confidence may experience a chain collapse effect.
Treasury companies' continuous selling: Long-term faith choosing to reduce exposure
● Long-term holders turning into net sellers: According to research briefs citing a single statistical source, Bitcoin treasury companies have experienced net selling for three consecutive weeks, shifting from accumulating at low levels in past cycles to gradually reducing positions in the current phase. This change is not a short-term high-frequency trader's emotional fluctuation but rather a conscious decision by long-term holders to reduce exposure when prices are in the mid-to-high range.
● Signal of cost-performance concerns: Treasury companies are typically seen as classic long-term holders, with slower adjustment rhythms and decisions more inclined towards asset-liability matching and business operation safety. When this group chooses to reduce positions over three consecutive weeks rather than viewing the current fluctuations as mere opportunities to add positions, the market naturally interprets this as their hesitation regarding Bitcoin's cost-performance at the current price level, thereby weakening the traditional narrative of "unconditional buying based on long-term faith."
● Boundaries of a single metric: It is important to emphasize that the aforementioned net selling data from treasury companies is sourced from a single channel and has not been cross-verified by multiple independent data providers. Therefore, it is more suitable as a sample for observing long-term group sentiment tendencies rather than a definitive conclusion on the overall industry direction. Simplistically extrapolating this signal as "a comprehensive retreat of corporate treasuries" would amplify panic sentiment and does not fully align with the ongoing on-chain construction and institutional layouts.
Investment products bleeding for five consecutive weeks: Institutions voting with their subscriptions
● Continuous net outflow from investment products: According to data from a single source, digital asset investment products have recorded approximately 288 million USD in net outflows for five consecutive weeks, indicating that funds entering the market through channels like funds, trusts, and ETPs have chosen net redemptions rather than subscriptions for five consecutive weeks. This directional change on the redemption front clearly shows that certain institutions and high-net-worth funds are withdrawing risk exposure from standardized products.
● Passive weakening of spot buying: Continuous fund outflows directly suppress the new buying power on the spot side. When new funds are no longer flowing in continuously while old funds choose to retreat in batches, maintaining prices around 65,000 USD must increasingly rely on the game between existing on-chain funds. Bulls find it difficult to secure clear incremental firepower, and the defense line's sustainability relies more on whether there is a willingness to absorb selling pressure with limited funds rather than relying on "external assistance" to push prices up.
● Comparison of risk-averse allocations: Meanwhile, research briefs indicate that traditional financial funds are increasing their allocation to gold and other safe-haven assets. In the context of rising macro uncertainties, highly volatile crypto assets have naturally become prioritized risk exposures to reduce. The relative favor of assets like gold, combined with the continuous net outflows from digital asset products, creates a contrast of "crypto assets gradually cooling down, safe-haven assets returning to the center stage," further compressing Bitcoin's marginal space in institutional asset allocation.
Futures open interest slips below one trillion: Leverage funds actively contracting
● Overall contraction of leveraged positions: According to data from a single source, the total open interest in crypto futures has been below 100 billion USD for two consecutive weeks, a scale lower than the intensity levels observed during previous high-volatility phases, indicating that both bulls and bears have shown a general decrease in willingness to use leverage. As the critical support around 65,000 USD is repeatedly tested, the futures market has not seen extreme bets for increased leverage but has leaned more towards risk contraction.
● Dual effects of risk and elasticity: Leverage contraction, on one hand, indeed lowers the probability of extreme liquidation events, weakening the amplification harm from "cascading liquidations," thus reducing the chained footstep risks during market volatility; but on the other hand, the lack of large-scale leveraged positions also means insufficient "elastic fuel" needed for rapid upward price pulls. In an environment where long and short fights tend toward caution, good news catalysts are more likely to evolve into gradual rises rather than breakthrough surges leading to linear explosions.
● Amplifier under thin liquidity: Under the backdrop of insufficient incremental funds in the spot market and contraction of futures leverage scales, price fluctuations around the 65,000 USD line are more easily amplified by individual large orders or emotional eruptions. When depth is lacking, even a not-extreme sell order can breach critical price levels, triggering a chain reaction of technical selling and programmatic liquidations; conversely, a concentrated buy might temporarily prop up the price, creating the illusion of "defense line holding." This vulnerability induced by weak liquidity renders each spike or rebound particularly striking.
From Wall Street to on-chain: Misalignment of risk-averse sentiment and construction rhythm
● Macroeconomic concerns intensify risk-averse preferences: Concerns in traditional markets over macro uncertainties and geopolitical risks are rising, prompting funds to increase allocations to gold and other safe-haven assets, while reducing exposure to volatile crypto assets still burdened by regulatory uncertainties. For institutions needing to explain to clients about drawdowns and the origins of volatility, reducing crypto positions and increasing gold allocations during this phase aligns better with risk control paradigms, which also reinforces the collective sense of "crypto cooling" on the emotional level.
● Long-term layouts have not halted: In contrast to the short-term capital wait-and-see stance, institutions' mid-to-long-term structures and product layouts are still progressing. Research briefs mention that Fidelity is hiring DeFi product managers, illustrating that large traditional institutions still view on-chain finance as part of their future business mix, but currently place more emphasis on infrastructure and product line development rather than engaging in short-term pricing games through high-frequency trading. The ongoing investments in long-term capital and engineering resources form another timeline that diverges from market adjustments.
● A parallel world of on-chain builders: On the on-chain side, advancements like the Fluid protocol initiating foundation governance proposals indicate that developers and project parties are still advancing mid-to-long-term topics like decentralized governance, protocol upgrades, and ecosystem expansion. These actions starkly contrast with Bitcoin's repeated entanglement around the 65,000 USD line: while price pressures mount in real-world capital games, on-chain builders are laying the framework for future narratives. The misalignment of these two narrative lines serves as a reminder to the market that short-term price fluctuations are but a mirror of the crypto ecosystem, not the entirety.
The tug-of-war between bulls and bears is not over: Whether the defense line holds will determine the narrative direction
The signals of treasury companies net reducing positions for three consecutive weeks, digital asset investment products experiencing approximately 288 million USD in net outflow for five consecutive weeks, and crypto futures open interest remaining below 100 billion USD for two consecutive weeks combine to make 65,000 USD evolve from a mere technical support level into a touchstone for testing bulls' confidence. This level carries not just the accumulated cost zones of early bulls but also reflects the true attitudes of long-term holders, institutional funds, and leveraged players towards the current risk-reward ratio.
If this price range can be effectively maintained after multiple testing rounds, then under the backdrop of overall leverage contraction and relatively manageable liquidation risks, a limited but determined bull position, combined with potential external observing funds, may be passively turned into "upward chips" when macro sentiments stabilize, accumulatively building firepower for the next attempt to challenge higher ranges. Conversely, if 65,000 USD is clearly breached and confirmed lost over time, the narratives of "institutional retreat" and "long-term holders loosening" will be further reinforced, leading more funds to choose to vote with their feet, viewing this as a signal of deteriorating trend rather than a normal correction.
During this stage of the key defense line being continuously tested, investors need to consciously distinguish between short-term liquidity fluctuations and long-term institutional layout rhythms. A single data indicator—be it the inflow and outflow of funds for a certain week, or an on-chain statistic with incomplete origins—cannot provide a definitive answer to market direction. A more pragmatic approach acknowledges the reality of liquidity contraction and rising risk-averse sentiment, while considering one's own cycle, risk tolerance, and level of trust in long-term narratives to cautiously adjust position structures, rather than being led through an entire emotional cycle by a single number or headline.
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