What to know : Bitcoin rebounded to about $65,400 as a weaker U.S. dollar and a risk-on rally in Asian equities gave crypto markets their first solid bounce in weeks. The broader crypto market is testing a potential double-bottom pattern that could imply roughly 10% upside if it holds, but a failure to rebound could trigger a further decline of about 25%, according to FxPro's Alex Kuptsikevich. Despite gains in major tokens such as ether, solana and XRP, analysts describe a crisis of confidence in bitcoin after its nearly 50% slide from record highs and warn that real capitulation may still lie ahead.
Bitcoin reclaimed $65,400 in early Wednesday trading as a weaker U.S. dollar and a risk-on tone across Asian equities gave crypto markets their first clean bounce in weeks.
The broader crypto market cap had slipped to $2.19 trillion earlier this week, practically retesting the lows hit during the Feb. 5 crash. That proximity is what makes the current move interesting.
If the level holds, the market is looking at a textbook double bottom with roughly 10% upside, according to Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro. If it doesn't, he warned, "a failure to rebound will signal the end of the recovery, opening the potential for a further 25% decline."
Major tokens tracked the bounce. Ether rose 4.2% over the past day, solana gained 7%, and XRP added 3%. The moves came as MSCI's gauge for Asian equities climbed 1.4% to a record, led by South Korea and Taiwan, where AI-linked chipmakers hit all-time highs ahead of Nvidia's earnings report later Wednesday.
The dollar provided a tailwind for risk assets. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index edged lower after President Trump's State of the Union address, in which he doubled down on tariff plans despite the Supreme Court striking down his global import taxes.
He further suggested tariffs could eventually replace the income tax system entirely.
A weaker dollar has historically been constructive for bitcoin, though the relationship has been inconsistent during this drawdown cycle.
But conviction remains thin despite the bounce notwithstanding. Bloomberg reported that analysts it surveyed described a "crisis of confidence" in bitcoin after its nearly 50% decline from all-time highs, with no obvious new catalysts for growth.
FxPro's Kuptsikevich went further, saying the market likely hasn't bottomed yet and that "real capitulation is still ahead."
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