Original video title: Haseeb on AI, AGI Timeline, 10/11 & the Only Rule That Matters in Crypto
Original source: 168x
Original translation: TechFlow Shen Chao
“Surviving in the crypto world is the greatest Alpha. As long as you are still at the table, you are eligible to enjoy the feast.”
Haseeb Qureshi, managing partner at Dragonfly Capital, analyzed the symbiotic relationship between AI and cryptocurrency, survival rules during bear markets, and the historic turning point of the industry from "barbaric pioneering" to "institutionalization" from the perspective of an eight-year veteran in the crypto cycle in the Consensus HK special of the East-West Capital dialogue program “168X”.
The legendary investor, who emerged from the Texas poker table, started playing professional poker at the age of 16 with $50, ranked among the top ten in the world for online heads-up no-limit Texas Hold'em at 19, then made a glamorous transition to Silicon Valley, working successively at Airbnb and Earn.com (acquired by Coinbase), and eventually led one of the most influential venture capital institutions in the crypto industry—Dragonfly Capital, with total assets under management exceeding $5 billion. Just a week ago, Dragonfly announced the completion of a $650 million fundraising for its fourth fund, boldly acting against the tide during the bear market, again proving its investment philosophy of “buying the dip.”
This article is a summary of highlights from the show 168X (@168X_Fortune)—a top dialogue platform that deeply connects Eastern wisdom with Western innovation, focusing on cutting-edge fields such as AI, blockchain, robotics, space technology, and bioengineering, exploring how technology, capital, and human wisdom will reshape the future of human civilization.
The End of an Era: When Competitors Leave the Table
The interview opened with a news that shook the industry.
Kyle Samani, co-founder of Multicoin Capital, announced his resignation and departure from the crypto industry, where he had been deeply involved for nearly a decade, turning to emerging fields such as AI, robotics, and longevity technology.
For Haseeb, this was not just news; it was a personal farewell.
“Interestingly, Kyle was the first VC I met after entering the crypto world,” he recalled. “We both entered the industry around 2017. He and I are completely different; we disagree on almost everything. But he is my most respected competitor.”
Haseeb described Kyle as “an outsider”: without a prominent investment background, without the halo of prestigious schools, and without the backing of top institutions, “just someone who figured it out on his own, who carved out a bloody path through personal branding and extreme contrarian thinking.”
“Seeing him leave brings a deep sense of melancholy,” Haseeb admitted, “because it feels like our generation's youth is coming to an end. We entered this industry in our twenties when everything felt dreamy and futuristic. Now, the industry has grown up.”
We've Won Too Much: From Rebels to Rule Makers
What is the sign of the industry "growing up"? Haseeb answered with a highly visual metaphor:
“The market cap of stablecoins was only a few billion dollars back in the day, now it's $300 billion. The U.S. Treasury Secretary publicly predicted that stablecoins would reach $3 trillion in a decade, accounting for 15% of the total money supply.”
“We thought we were breaking the rules. But now, we are the rule makers.”
“To some extent, we have won too much,” he said with mixed emotions. “It's like we are a group of climbers who worked hard to reach the top of the mountain, only to find that tour buses are now driving up directly. Yes, we won—but seeing victory come this way leaves a bittersweet feeling in my heart.”
BlackRock has entered the space, JP Morgan has issued its own tokenized dollar. The decentralized utopia once chased in youth is ultimately realized through the full takeover by Wall Street.
“When we entered the crypto world, we were chasing a wild sci-fi future. This is not the future we imagined, but it is much more successful than we envisioned.”
The former crypto punks got the “Mass Adoption” they wanted, just the script is a bit different.
AI Needs Cryptocurrency: Smart Contracts Are the Laws Created for Machines
As AI steals the limelight of the global capital markets, has the value narrative of the crypto industry become outdated?
Haseeb's answer is different:
“AI is the most important technology of the 21st century, but like many technologies, it requires the support of other infrastructures. AI needs energy, AI needs networks—it's precisely the vast amount of data on the network that feeds large language models. The same goes for cryptocurrencies.”
He concretized this intersection into a core scenario: When AI Agents begin to make commercial transactions, how do they settle among themselves?
“Your agent and my agent do not use the same fiat currency and do not operate within the same banking system. You are in Taiwan, I am in the U.S. How does my agent do business with your agent? The answer has been there since the beginning: cryptocurrency.”
Haseeb went further to propose a profound insight: The true users of smart contracts are not humans, but AI.
“Think about the issues with legal contracts: I do not know which jurisdiction you are in, I do not know how to sue your agent in court. Even if we go to court, it takes several months to file a case, both sides hire expensive lawyers, and then it takes years to go through the legal process. But AI Agents operate much faster than the human brain—courts are designed for human speed, agents operate on a completely different time scale.”
“The law is random. How will the judge rule? What will the jury say? No one knows. But smart contracts always say the same thing as long as you can understand the code. Predictability is exactly what AI Agents need.”
This means that the long-promoted narrative of the crypto industry that “smart contracts will replace law” has always been difficult to land in the human world, but has instead found the perfect application scenario in the AI Agent economy.
The Industrial Revolution Took 50 Years: Don't Expect AI to Be Too Radical
In the face of market speculation about when “Artificial Superintelligence” (ASI) will arrive, Haseeb displayed a calmness unique to top venture capitalists:
“When ChatGPT was launched in November 2022, many predicted we were just a few years away from AGI. Now it's almost four years later. Is this AGI? Maybe. But if it is, it hasn't reflected in GDP nor in unemployment rates. When you walk the streets of Hong Kong, everything looks normal; no buildings are on fire, and there is no mass unemployment.”
He cited the industrial revolution as a reference: “The industrial revolution is the most significant event in human economic history. However, from the commercialization of the steam engine to having a measurable impact on GDP, it took a full 50 years. Before that, all the articles saying ‘the end is near’ were simply too early.”
Haseeb emphasized that no one can accurately predict a timeline. “If ‘coming soon’ means within two years? That’s unlikely. Within ten years? Possible. Within twenty to thirty years? Almost certain. It all depends on the timeline.”
“AI will undoubtedly be a disruptive technology. But the ‘when’ is an entirely different question. Don’t draw trend lines too aggressively unless you have sufficient reason to believe it is happening.”
Survival Rules in a Bear Market: Stay at the Table
At the end of the interview, Haseeb redirected the topic back to the current market: a dismal sentiment and shaken confidence in the crypto bear market.
He candidly admitted that this is a tough period: “This is extremely difficult for those who entered this industry out of excitement and momentum. People treat price as a report card—when prices fall, they feel like they did something wrong. But if you stay long enough, you will know that this is not true.”
Haseeb pointed out that the market event on October 11 last year was a crucial turning point. On that day, U.S. President Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese goods on Truth Social, coupled with China’s newly announced restrictions on rare earth exports, leading to a rapid sell-off of global risk assets. The crypto market was hit hardest—Bitcoin plummeted 13% in an hour, Ethereum dropped over 16%, and a large number of altcoins halved or even went to zero within minutes.
“That day, many exchanges crashed, and we experienced the largest single-day liquidation in crypto history—over $19 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated, with 1.6 million trading accounts liquidated,” Haseeb recalled. The scale of this disaster is nearly 20 times that of the COVID crash in 2020 and far exceeds the liquidation amount during the FTX collapse in 2022.
“But what was truly confusing was what happened afterward,” Haseeb said. “If you look at the price trends of Bitcoin alongside the Nasdaq and S&P 500—they started to diverge after 10/11. U.S. stocks rebounded, but crypto did not follow. There has been some kind of fundamental change in market structure, and we still do not have a satisfactory explanation.”
He believes that it is precisely because of the lack of a clear ‘why’ that this round of the bear market has hit people's psychology especially hard.
But he is not so pessimistic about the future of the crypto market.
“The crypto market is driven by momentum; it is autocorrelated. When momentum starts in one direction, it will continue. But the reverse is also true—when recovery momentum starts, it will also persist.”
He concluded with a piece of wisdom he brought from the poker table, which is also the core belief of his eight-year crypto career:
“The first lesson you learn in the crypto world is the importance of ‘survival’.
As long as you are still at the table, you can see what happens next.
The only way you can lose is by being eliminated.
As long as you are not eliminated, you have a seat.
As long as you have a seat, you can enjoy the feast.
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