Her judgment is remarkably specific: Within five years, Silicon Valley's big companies will no longer need "specific functional engineers"; accounting, the Big Four auditing firms, and a large number of jobs in service industries that are heavy on clerical work will also be replaced by AI within five years.

Even if these companies delay layoffs out of managerial inertia and social responsibility, once the burden of operational costs begins to threaten their ecological position, layoffs will become inevitable. Overall, the entire social operating model will be thoroughly reshaped by AI productivity within about ten years.

She provides a vivid example: after Musk took over Twitter and carried out massive layoffs, Twitter actually became better. She believes that even if Google were to lay off one-third of its engineers, it would still operate well.

"For every individual, how to maintain resistance to AI, how to retain immunity to AI, is the most significant issue of the next decade," Dovey summarizes.

TSMC Geopolitical Games: How "Pretty Girls" Protect Themselves Between Two Big Brothers

Another thought-provoking topic in the interview is Dovey's in-depth analysis of TSMC's geopolitical strategy. Primitive Ventures has not only acquired TSMC stocks but has also spent two to three years systematically studying the company.

"We love TSMC not just because it is a monopoly in wafer manufacturing, but also because its founder, Morris Chang, is extremely wise and has a very good succession plan," Dovey explains. She even specially went to Taiwan to buy the second volume of Morris Chang's autobiography, believing it contains a wealth of wisdom about business succession.

She analyzes the core paradox TSMC faces: If the Arizona factory directly progresses to 3 nanometers and does so quickly, TSMC will face the risk of having the ground pulled from under it - the U.S. could use TSMC as its biggest bargaining chip when negotiating with China. Once domestic production in the U.S. matures, TSMC’s strategic value as Taiwan's "national guardian mountain" will drastically shrink.

This is why TSMC chooses to cooperate with Japan to upgrade from 6 nanometers to 3 nanometers. This is a very clever strategic move. On one hand, it cannot allow the U.S. to pull the rug out from under it; on the other hand, progress on the U.S. side is already slow due to professional ethics and bureaucratic systems. TSMC needs to ensure an alternative pathway both for public and private reasons.

Dovey uses a vivid metaphor to summarize Taiwan's situation: "Taiwan is somewhat like a particularly beautiful girl, with two big brothers vying for her attention." She believes that while the two big brothers are competing for attention, this "girl" should madly enhance her own base - leveraging the insights learned from the big brothers to start her own business, so that even when the big brothers are no longer competing for her, she can still do well.

She extends this logic to a more macro framework: In the past, Taiwan relied on military defense, but now AI and computing power are becoming a new type of national defense asset.

NVIDIA has set its overseas headquarters in Taipei, the father-son-like professional relationship between Jensen Huang and Morris Chang, as well as the manufacturing repatriation policy promoted by Japan's new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi - all these actions are reshaping the geopolitical power dynamics of the global semiconductor supply chain.

The Sense of Dead Silence Has Not Yet Arrived: SpaceX Bloodletting, Dull Aggression, and the Survival Rules of the Bear Market

When discussing market prospects, Dovey's famous article "Who is Paying for the Bull Market" was brought up by host Mr. Z. In the face of the current pessimistic sentiment in the crypto market, her judgment is calm and sharp.

"Sentiment will definitely be lower, and prices will also be lower. A true bear market should be very quiet, there should be a sense of dead silence," she says. "But now there are new dramas every day, and there are all sorts of fights. We are far from reaching a sense of dead silence."

She specifically points out a significant liquidity risk event in 2026: SpaceX's IPO. According to reports, SpaceX plans to go public in mid-2026 with an estimated valuation of about $1.5 trillion, raising as much as $50 billion. If it proceeds, it will be the largest IPO in human history.

"Just the IPO will require $1.5 trillion," Dovey analyzes. Investors in SpaceX have held their positions for a long time, needing to take profits; combined with the complicated equity structure following its merger with xAI, this will be a 'large-scale retail bloodletting event' covering both the private and public markets, creating a huge liquidity shock across the entire risk asset market.

She also observes that the market has become extremely cautious: all good earnings reports lead to profit-taking; trillion-dollar giants like Microsoft can fluctuate 15% both ways, "like meme stocks."

The extreme volatility is changing the ecology of the market. The year 2026 will not be an easy one.

For different types of traders, Dovey gives sharply contrasting advice:

If you are a volatility harvesting trader, 2026 will be the "golden year" - quant firms like QRT and HRT are making a killing. But if you are a directional, subjective trader, you need to be particularly cautious.

As a long-term asset allocator like Primitive Ventures, she chooses to maintain "dull aggression": having sufficient cash reserves, remaining relatively insensitive to short-term fluctuations, and patiently waiting for true dead silence to arrive.

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