Original Title: Golden Path (p1)
Original Author: Evgeny Gaevoy, Founder of Wintermute
Original Compilation: AididiaoJP, Foresight News
This article has been lingering in my mind for a long time. My views on whether the cypherpunks can succeed, whether libertarianism can succeed, and whether cryptocurrency can ultimately work have always changed.
The following are my recent thoughts on where cryptocurrency stands philosophically. This is more like a declaration, talking about "why we are here."
Golden Path
For a long time, "Dune" has been one of the top three books in my heart. It may have changed in recent years (for example, the "Culture" series now ranks higher), but it remains very special to me, as it was something that shaped my thoughts around the age of twenty.
People generally focus on the first three books of this series, but for me, it is the fourth book, "God Emperor of Dune," that has left a lasting impression, and it has tangibly influenced my views on the value of progress, diversity, and "what the world should look like." The core idea of the series up to that point is: the only way for humanity to survive is through diversification. The "Golden Path" is a plan spanning thousands of years, first forcibly imposing stable shackles on humanity, and once those shackles disappear, humanity will deeply loathe that stability from the core of their being, hating any form of centralization. In the words from the book:
"Give humanity a lesson etched in their bones: being protected and comfortable is no different from total death, no matter how long it can be delayed."
We are inherently drawn to stability, to organizing things, to combating chaos and disorder. We are naturally inclined to build empires, be they nations or enterprises. We also know that all empires will fall, all enterprises will perish, yet we continue to build, larger and stronger each time. But the larger we build, the more devastating the collapse. Even more frightening is that this ultimate empire-building might drag the entire humanity into extinction, either because it is too centralized to withstand external blows or because it evolves internally to the point of abandoning its existence as a society. Thus, history repeats itself: from chaos to self-organization, then to empire, and finally to collapse. The most important lesson I've learned from the "Golden Path" is that during the integration phase, we should embrace diversity and reject empires, no matter how tempting the stability (and promised prosperity) they offer.
In today's nations, there is too much "protected comfort." In today's enterprises/financial machines, there is also too much "protected comfort." I feel these two are slowly pushing us toward inevitable collapse. To clarify, this is not an opposition to capitalism or progress. Quite the opposite, the capitalism within this system is dwindling, replaced more by pathetic and unambitious nationalism. In short, the monsters that may arise in the future are as follows:
· Anarcho-capitalism: Corporations win, governments lose. Whether in the world of Tessier-Ashpool, Cosa Nostra Pizza Inc, or Weyland-Yutani, aside from the big gears within machines, everyone else suffers.
· Nationalism: Nation-states control everything, dividing the world. Ultimately, it leads to a state akin to "1984," or maybe something slightly better, it's hard to say.
· Fascism: Corporations collude with the government. This is the Galactic Empire from "Star Wars" — rebellion is almost inevitable. Which country might take this path?
So what is on the other side? What does not give you "protected comfort," but instead forces you to prioritize personal sovereignty and independence? What strives to break away from national boundaries, completely disregarding those closed financial systems? What treats "insecurity" as a feature rather than a flaw? Good question, that word is cryptocurrency.
The Road Ahead
I have been in this "industry" for almost 9 years, and I've never felt the atmosphere so confusing, feeling like there is not much to look forward to. On the surface, it seems we have gotten most of what we wanted: "institutions have entered," and technology is being used. But it always feels like something is missing, not just a matter of price, but the "soul" is gone, the feeling of "what exactly are we doing" is gone. Moreover, the outside world continues to move forward; a new, hotter thing has emerged (AI). We are completely lost.
Of course, not everyone feels this way. Some believe that the rise of stablecoins is a win. Some celebrate that decentralized perpetual contract trading platforms have defeated the "antiques" of traditional and centralized finance. Others wish to build their empires at the intersection of DeFi and traditional finance. We have seen the "enterprise chain" arise again, and enterprise blockchain is "great" once more. So yes, some are quite excited, but I am not, even though Wintermute could make a lot by integrating with traditional finance.
I am not excited because I see several different paths ahead, only one of which is viable and worth taking:
Traditional finance absorbs cryptocurrency. Stablecoins become mainstream, enterprises chains with KYC, decentralized trading platforms with KYC. The financial machine runs faster, with fewer intermediaries. Bitcoin becomes digital gold, most held by sovereign governments, corporate treasuries, and ETFs. Or perhaps everyone globally uses CBDCs, and our (financial) privacy is completely controlled. The technology is indeed impressive, but we lose completely, is that not obvious? Probability: highest
The government surrenders to blockchain, everything runs on a permissionless ledger, while KYC/AML systems play on one side. Only when converting to fiat currency is the tax paid on cryptocurrency, with token valuations in the trillions. A free, brilliant world. Also a purely imagined world, we won (but it’s dreaming). Probability: lowest
Uncomfortably coexisting. We build a parallel, completely independent system. You, as an individual, can exist in both worlds, and the government cannot touch it because by design, it is separated. We win, and win fairly. Probability: fully depends on ourselves
I hope you feel that I am completely uninterested in scenario 1. It only makes the existing machine (no matter which of the three monsters ultimately wins) run smoother.
I know some believe scenario 2 is possible, but that is purely dreaming. The government cannot relinquish sovereignty, just as businesses cannot voluntarily give up monopolies. Casinos cannot just open on Solana. The CFTC cannot turn a blind eye to Hyperliquid operating without KYC and regulation. Do I need to remind you? Which centralized stablecoin issuer can hold assets that cannot be frozen with a court order? For this to happen, the entire socio-economy would have to collapse; I have three children to raise and oversee over a hundred people, I certainly do not hope for that.
So we are left with scenario 3. You might call it the metaverse, digital nation, DAO, or cultural tribe. Their commonality is independent existence, often conflicting with and even opposing the political and financial systems of the "real world."
Matrix
Our biggest problem is that many people have never truly "learned this lesson to the bone." Especially for those of us in Western countries, we have slowly become accustomed to progress, becoming more convenient, and have never experienced what it is like to lack sovereignty. Ironically, between 2022 and 2024, we experienced it most vividly: on one side, there were the regulatory onslaughts from the SEC and CFTC, and on the other, centralized entities (FTX/Alameda + venture capital) nearly bought up half of cryptocurrency. What is the result? The lesson we have learned is completely reversed. We did not think of doubling our efforts to fight for freedom but rather felt that we could win as long as we placed the right people in the right positions.
Meanwhile, we have complained for years about how poor the user experience of cryptocurrency is, how Bitcoin cannot serve as a convenient payment tool (which is indeed inconvenient), endlessly being hacked, etc. What if we were completely wrong? What if these inconveniences are precisely the price we must pay for sovereignty, a culture we should actively embrace? I am not saying that we should think of MetaMask as the pinnacle of innovation. Nor am I saying we must engrave mnemonic phrases on metal plates. I mean we should strive to optimize the user experience, with the goal not being to cater to that 50% of the world who don’t need it, but to serve the 50% who truly need sovereignty — whether it be those in developing countries watching their democracy erode, completely controlled by government, or those in developed countries increasingly resembling China and Russia, with anti-privacy laws in place (for example, Europe and the UK).
Our goal should not be to fight against "regulation" or "government." Our goal should be to create something they cannot control at all. The key is not to depend on those points that can be throttled: fiat entry and exit channels, app stores, DNS resolution, centralized orderers, social media platforms, and of course centralized stablecoins (which can be frozen on command). What we create cannot be shut down with a court summons or a company bureaucrat flipping a switch. The tax office should not be concerned with our non-compliant tokens (unless we convert them into fiat). In short: we must create a place where ordinary people can live without needing approval from anyone.
Specifically:
· Embrace permissionless, sovereign protocols, and avoid those black-box off-chain solutions
· DAOs are fundamentally correct, and I refer specifically to those that have not operated well, which are completely controlled by centralized entities and merely put on a façade of governance. We have never truly built a decent community; we only think about how to incentivize people to leave comments.
· Learn to either not rely on centralized solutions or switch to alternatives immediately when one gets throttled. This includes infrastructure (cloud, large models), social coordination tools, and of course stablecoins.
· Make algorithmic stablecoins great again; our mistake was being too obsessed with Ponzi models. The ideas behind DAI and UST are not wrong; the mistake was adding USDC into DAI and piling on completely unsustainable yields onto UST. DAI relying solely on ETH for support, failing to match Tether's scale, is perfectly normal — we need to first establish a parallel economy, which we have never truly tried. Better yet — we should trade directly with cryptocurrency among ourselves, although that step might still be early.
· Must be able to protect privacy. Any tool will do, as long as it's achieved.
Dispersal
The end of "God Emperor of Dune" is "Dispersal" — the God Emperor dies, humanity scatters into the void. After 2022, we should have scattered, remembering the lessons, but it's not too late now.
We (and) cannot always choose which corner of the world we are in. Some are trapped in nations and have no means to leave; others are bound by responsibilities they have taken on. My more pessimistic prediction is that in the coming years, the reasons we want to escape will only multiply. That giant monster will grow larger and suppress more. It is currently impossible to fully escape into a "better" parallel crypto world; even if it truly exists, it won’t be feasible. But at least we can (re)start to build something that gives future generations a place to escape while allowing the real world and the crypto world to coexist.
Tools that can be used for escape are the only things worth building. One day when cryptocurrency is no longer popular (it will definitely not be), it can still operate without external world influence. More importantly, it can give meaning to what we do and build.
Most of us will still choose to coexist with empires. Because of responsibilities, comfort, money, or other pursuits, that's understandable, no problem. The remaining few will create exits, and then recover what we have lost.
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