The world is bustling, all for profit; the world is bustling, all for the sake of profit! Hello everyone, I am your friend Lao Cui, focusing on digital currency market analysis, striving to deliver the most valuable information about the coin market to a wide range of coin friends. Welcome to follow and like, and reject any market smoke bombs!

A wave of military conflict has once again pushed the cryptocurrency market back into a bearish territory; conflicts of interest are always a significant factor troubling humanity's ascent. Recently, I, Lao Cui, have also paid more attention to short-term instantaneous fluctuations, which means that the interpretation of news has been somewhat neglected, but this does not mean that I have disregarded such fluctuations in my research scope, as military factors cannot be incorporated into articles. Behind military actions often lies political maneuvering, and behind politics rests financial endorsement. The gold market appears unique; in my understanding, the gold market is not backed by traditional finance; gold is more like something that transcends the financial market and belongs to the collective consciousness of all humanity. I previously mentioned that military conflicts can lead to an increase in gold prices, and the main reason for the rise is not due to gold itself; we need to look for the underlying cause. In turbulent times, even if you hold USD or Bitcoin, you cannot exchange them for physical items you desire; such things become worthless under military influence.

Additionally, recently in China, company 360 collaborated with certain authoritative institutions to deeply analyze the underlying logic of cryptocurrency or the market, even referencing a well-known figure in electronic fraud as an example. I also looked at the original text, which has some reference value and indeed points out some issues within the cryptocurrency market; what I want to convey is that everyone needs to have a correct understanding that American state-level hackers do not directly crack the underlying code of cryptocurrencies; domestically, this matter is defined as the cracking of the mnemonic phrase. This information is indeed correct because without the mnemonic phrase, on-chain transfers cannot be completed. However, the cracking of this mnemonic phrase is not done through computation; rather, a certain individual failed to store Bitcoin onto a hard drive, as this piece was already laid out years ago. It seems to be a case of observing and exploiting the enemy's weakness; they placed the mnemonic phrase on a networked computer, and American hackers merely used the internet's cracking methods to seize it.

There’s no need for panic. This instance only tells you that it is best to keep mnemonic phrases written on paper and locked in a safe. Cryptocurrency assets should also be stored on a hard drive, and for any computer that stores hard drives, remember not to connect to the internet. Individual investors need not worry too much; as long as the assets do not exceed one million USD, no one will want to expend energy monitoring your operations, so it doesn't significantly impact individual investors. Nearly 15 billion in cryptocurrency assets flowed into the American treasury, which only indicates that the assets in America are also somewhat tight. At present, only these two events significantly impact the cryptocurrency market; we cannot predict military conflicts, including Iran's retaliatory actions or whether the intensity and timeline of the American strikes over four days is accurate. However, you can glean some clues from the opening of the US stock market on Monday; at this stage, do not attempt to forecast all trends; wait for concrete news to emerge before planning.

From this military action, we can see that the cryptocurrency market's decline will revolve around the period of conflict. As long as the military aspect does not conclude, the harm to the cryptocurrency market will continue to expand. Iran itself is a country with a massive amount of cryptocurrency assets, and combined with the characteristics of a theocratic state, its actions are not a controllable variable. Particularly with the latest data, the percentage of unrealized losses in Bitcoin has exceeded 39%, with most buyers in a state of unrealized loss. The market is entering a pressured phase but has yet to fully capitulate. Historical data shows that this metric exceeded 40% at the bottoms of bear markets in 2018 and 2022, and the current level may indicate that weak positions are gradually being cleared and approaching a cyclical low point. This message illustrates that what you feel internally is entirely contrary to your actual actions; many seasoned investors, having undergone the market's baptism, have grown increasingly patient and have immense confidence in this bear market's rebound. However, this data might bring about downward space.

If investors in the market still possess a bullish strategic outlook under the current bearish influence and wish for a rebound in the bull market, they must liquidate the bullish space. Fortunately, we have a few months until our judgment on the market's bull phase, and the movements of large players will become increasingly clear. In the next 2-3 months, there will certainly be a wave of bullish liquidation. However, this military strike does not have a significant impact on the cryptocurrency market, which is also something to consider. It is not a short-term influence; under normal cryptocurrency fluctuations, especially in a downward state, the military aspect's impact on the cryptocurrency market should be substantial, meaning this wave of military action caused Ethereum's downward space to at least drop by 20-30% on the day. Clearly, the drop today did not reach this mark, and this issue can also indicate that the downward space in the cryptocurrency market is not substantial enough; perhaps it could have ended this downward trend long ago, and you can refer to the last conflict between Iran and Israel, which was the one when the black flag was raised.

Regarding the US stock market, it does not necessarily have to decline; this is Lao Cui's conclusion. It depends on how the battle results unfold over the next two days. Everyone needs to remember that war drives stock market fluctuations on the winning side. Since Trump took office, although numerous wars have been initiated, the outcomes have been beneficial for the US stock market. The feedback from the stock market made Trump taste success, so once this valve opens, closing it again depends on the direction of the next presidential administration, especially since the Anglo-Saxon group is undoubtedly eager for war, making the idea of ending wars difficult to realize in the short term. Hence, the impact on the cryptocurrency market will almost always exist; war, even if a derivative of politics, is a gain for finances. As long as there are influences from war, the cryptocurrency market will continue its downward trend. This could be painful for the spot market; you may attempt short-term strategies; as long as this round of military strikes does not lead to new lows, I, Lao Cui, still do not foresee a drop below 60,000, but at this critical juncture, I hope everyone can be steadier.

Lao Cui summarizes: The current trends mainly follow the news; I need not elaborate on the gold market, as its inherent value is immeasurable, and I believe gold is not elevated by inflation and bubbles but rather its value is simply as such. The emergence of gold was not intended as an option for ordinary investors; it has always maintained a high position. The current price reflects its intrinsic value and will continue to move forward. Reflecting on the cryptocurrency market, is there a bubble? There is certainly some bubble. One undeniable point is that the audience in the cryptocurrency market is increasingly broad, and the application scenarios are gradually developing, especially with the backing of US stocks, US debt, and the dollar, which ensures that its value will continue to shine. In the long run, the cryptocurrency market's value can still double; remember that I, Lao Cui, speak of overall value, and this realization lies within two years. The market capitalization of stablecoins will inevitably grow; thus, the rise of Ethereum and SOL is reasonable, which also depends on Bitcoin's support. For those in the spot market, you can take a pause; short-term conflicts cannot affect long-term trends, so stay at ease! For those in the contracts market, follow current events closely; just keep an eye on military situations—an end will bring growth, and continuity will cause declines. I cannot update timely; for momentary fluctuations, I will prioritize users at hand, so if anyone has specific questions, please ask me first and do not wait for my articles.

The original piece was created by the official account: Lao Cui Talks Coins. If you need help, feel free to contact.

Lao Cui's words: Investment is like chess; a master can see five moves, seven moves, or even more than ten moves ahead, while a novice can only see two or three moves. The skilled consider the overall situation and strategize for the grand trend, not fixating on individual pieces of land, aiming for the final win, while the novice fights for every inch, frequently switching between bullish and bearish, only contending for short-term gains, resulting in frequent traps.

This material is for learning reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading based on this is at your own risk!

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