Several bettors cashed in by anticipating that the U.S. would strike Iran on Feb. 28, 2026, and one particularly bold wagerer reportedly placed $60,000 three days earlier and walked away with $500,000 for getting the call exactly right.

According to multiple reports, the U.S., working in tandem with Israel, launched significant airstrikes on Iran under a campaign the Pentagon has designated “Operation Epic Fury.”

U.S. President Trump urged Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps to surrender and called on civilians to overthrow their government. Reports of traders minting serious cash from outcomes on prediction markets such as Polymarket have flooded social media feeds.

One X user claims that “insiders positioned early reportedly made over $1,000,000 on this outcome.” Others, like Bubblemaps, insisted that several traders made millions. But not everyone walked away counting winnings.

Further accounts indicate that a Polymarket trader known as “anoin123” endured a steep financial blow, shedding roughly $6.5 million in a single day after an unexpected airstrike on Iran. Anoin123 had reportedly banked sizeable gains wagering against U.S. strikes, yet the abrupt turn of events flipped those gains into a deficit topping $4.5 million.

This weekend, wagers remain highly active across prediction markets as traders calibrate expectations around the evolving conflict in the Middle East. One Kalshi event titled “Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz this year?” currently assigns a 56% probability to that outcome, with the market drawing $469,250 in trading volume.

Another Kalshi event tracks the probability of Ali Khamenei leaving office, with implied odds climbing as the projected timeframes stretch deeper into 2026.

At 11 a.m. EST on Feb. 28, the Kalshi contract pricing his departure before March 1, 2026, climbed to a 20% probability, up 17 points, while the before April 1, 2026, window posted a striking 41-point increase to 62%. Looking further out, the odds of him exiting before July 1, 2026, sit at 67%, with the before Sept. 1, 2026, contract edging slightly higher at 68%.

Polymarket bettors are also wagering on the same subject. According to that specific Polymarket contract, there is a 75% probability that Ali Khamenei will be removed from power by March 31, 2026.

Moreover, as noted above, Polymarket bettors assessing whether the Iranian regime will fall by the end of June place the odds at 46% today. That market has generated $2,246,229 in cumulative trading volume since its launch on Dec. 17, 2025.

The flurry of contracts across prediction markets illustrates how rapidly geopolitical shocks are being distilled into real-time price signals, with traders assigning hard percentages to events that once lived solely in diplomatic briefings and intelligence memos.

Whether those probabilities prove prescient or painfully off the mark, the episode highlights a stark reality: in the digital age, war headlines and regime stability are not just matters of statecraft — they are also markets, measured in basis points, liquidity, and conviction.

• What are prediction markets saying about Iran’s regime stability? Traders on Polymarket and Kalshi currently price a 46% chance that the Iranian regime will fall by June 30, 2026.
• What are the odds that Ali Khamenei leaves power in 2026? Markets show probabilities ranging from 20% before March 1, 2026, to as high as 74% by March 31, 2026, depending on the platform and contract.
• How are traders reacting to the U.S.-Israel airstrikes on Iran? Betting activity intensified immediately after the strikes, with several participants recording major gains and losses.
• What is the market view on Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz? A Kalshi contract currently assigns a 56% probability that Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz in 2026.

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