Kalshi, one of the largest regulated prediction markets in the U.S., might face legal actions regarding its settlement of a prediction market on the exit of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei from power.

While most users expected the market to settle positively after Khamenei’s death, Kalshi reimbursed all fees generated from the market’s activity and paid out traders using the last-traded price before his death.

Tarek Mansour, co-founder and CEO of Kalshi, explained that as a regulated institution in the U.S., the company could not allow the market to settle on Khamenei’s death.

He justified allowing the market to exist due to its relevance, citing geopolitical implications, economic consequences, national security considerations, and the effects of this event on oil and commodity prices as key themes.

This resolution sparked fierce criticism from users, who even called the move a scam, considering that Kalshi should settle like a similar bet on Polymarket, which did settle positively even after Khamanei’s death. Others reinforced that these death rules were issued weeks ago, but their application to this market in particular was unclear.

Ben Geller, a former New York legislator, threatened to take legal action against Kalshi, stating that he was in the process of “implementing and demanding a formal litigation hold directed to Kalshi Inc. and all affiliated entities and custodians.”

On social media, he stated that he would be acting as the proposed lead plaintiff in an upcoming action, representing thousands of users affected by the inadequate settlement of this market.

Finally, he is calling legal firms with “significant experience in complex litigation, class actions, commodities and derivatives fraud, and financial markets enforcement” to contact him and discuss a strategy to follow going forward.

• What is Kalshi’s recent legal issue concerning Iranian leader Ali Khamenei?
  Kalshi is facing potential legal actions for its settlement procedures on a prediction market related to Khamenei’s exit from power.

• How did Kalshi handle payouts after Khamenei’s death?
  The platform reimbursed all market fees and paid out traders based on the last-traded price before Khamenei’s death instead of settling positively.

• What justification did Kalshi’s CEO provide for this settlement approach?
  Tarek Mansour explained that as a regulated institution, Kalshi could not allow the market to settle on Khamenei’s death due to legal constraints.

• What repercussions are users seeking from Kalshi?
  Users, represented by Ben Geller, are threatening legal action against Kalshi, alleging unfair settlement practices and claiming rights as affected parties.

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