Original author: Jeff Ko, CoinEx Chief Analyst
As the situation in the Middle East escalates again, global markets begin to reprice geopolitical risks. Crude oil, gold, stocks, and crypto assets show divergent performances, reflecting the different roles of various assets in the macro-financial system.
Oil Prices: The Core Channel of Risk Transmission
The latest escalation of conflict has triggered market concerns about potential supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, pushing oil prices higher. This strait accounts for about one-fifth of global oil transportation, serving as a key hub for the transmission of geopolitical risks to the global economy.
The rise in oil prices not only affects energy costs but may also elevate inflation expectations and influence global liquidity conditions through the bond market. Currently, the upward movement of oil prices appears more as a precautionary premium against risk rather than as a response to actual supply disruptions.
Gold: A Classic Safe-Haven Asset Strengthens
In the context of rising risk sentiment, gold exhibits typical safe-haven characteristics. Inflows of funds support price increases, reflecting investors' defensive allocation needs in anticipation of further escalation of the conflict.
Future trends will depend on the evolution of the situation. If gold reverses its gains, the market may signal easing; if it continues to strengthen, it indicates that safe-haven demand is still increasing.
Bitcoin: Liquidity Exports Under Pressure but Showing Resilience
During the weekend's conflict news developments, traditional markets were closed, and the crypto market became the first trading venue to reflect risk sentiment. Bitcoin, as the most liquid continuously traded asset globally, emerged as a primary outlet for rapid risk reduction.
Despite facing selling pressure, Bitcoin's decline has been relatively limited, maintaining around $66,000; Ethereum also experienced only a mild correction. This performance indicates that the crypto market is providing liquidity outlets without displaying structural imbalances.
The current market tends to view this conflict as a phase of risk premium rather than a systemic financial shock.
If the Conflict Escalates, What Are the Channels of Impact?
If the situation further escalates, the market will focus on the following three transmission channels:
- Supply Shock Risk — Continued rise in oil prices may reignite inflation concerns;
- Liquidity Tightening — Rising energy costs compress global economic liquidity;
- Real Interest Rate Rise — An increase in real yields typically pressures risk assets.
In such an environment, gold may remain strong, while risk assets, including crypto, may face greater volatility.
Structural Differences Between Mainland China and Hong Kong Markets
Recent fluctuations also highlight the structural differences between the mainland Chinese market and the Hong Kong market.
The Chinese A-share market operates under a framework of capital controls, with the investor structure mainly comprised of domestic funds, and historical policy intervention mechanisms provided a degree of downside buffering.
In contrast, Hong Kong, as an offshore market, heavily relies on capital from international institutions. When global investors reduce exposure to China-related risks, they typically prioritize scaling back via the Hong Kong market, leading to relatively higher volatility.
These differences arise more from market structure than from the fundamentals themselves.
Key Variables Currently on the Market's Radar
Traders are currently closely monitoring:
- whether the conflict escalates further or shows signs of easing;
- whether oil prices remain elevated;
- whether gold continues its safe-haven strength;
- how global stock markets digest geopolitical shocks after restoring full trading.
If oil and gold prices retreat, the market may define this volatility as a short-term geopolitical risk premium; if energy and safe-haven assets continue to strengthen, it could evolve into more lasting macro pressure on risk assets.
As it stands, market sentiment remains cautious, but there are no signs of systemic panic yet.
About CoinEx
Founded in 2017, CoinEx is an award-winning cryptocurrency exchange built with users at its core. Since the establishment of the industry-leading mining pool ViaBTC, CoinEx has become one of the earliest trading platforms to release Proof of Reserves to achieve 100% user asset protection.
Currently, CoinEx serves over 10 million users in more than 200 countries and regions, supporting trading of over 1,100 types of crypto assets, and equipped with professional-level product functionalities and service systems.
CoinEx also issues its native token CET to incentivize users’ participation in ecological development and continuously empower platform ecological growth.
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