Geopolitical conflict and monetary policy have historically moved in tandem during periods of global instability. Bitmex co-founder and Maelstrom CIO Arthur Hayes shared analysis this week predicting that a U.S. conflict involving Iran could force the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates and inject liquidity, a policy pivot he argues has repeatedly driven major rallies in bitcoin and other crypto assets.

In his latest essay titled “iOS Warfare,” Hayes stated:

“Sitting here today, we do not know how long Trump will remain interested in spending billions, if not trillions, of dollars reshaping Iran’s politics to his liking, nor how much geopolitical and financial markets pain he can politically tolerate before he cuts and runs.”

The commentary frames military spending and geopolitical shocks as catalysts that weaken economic confidence and increase the likelihood of central banks turning to easier monetary policy to stabilize markets.

The essay presents a historical pattern linking U.S. military engagement in the Middle East with accommodative Federal Reserve policy. Hayes highlighted examples, including the 1990 Gulf War and the period following the Sept. 11 attacks, when the central bank moved to reduce borrowing costs to support the economy and financial markets. According to the analysis, wars increase fiscal pressure while amplifying uncertainty, conditions that frequently lead to cheaper money and expanded liquidity, a backdrop that Hayes argues tends to fuel sharp upside moves in bitcoin.

For investors, the key signal is not the conflict itself but the monetary policy response that follows. “The prudent action is to wait and see,” Hayes added, emphasizing:

“The time to back up the truck and buy bitcoin and high-quality shitcoins like $HYPE is immediately after the Fed cuts rates and or prints money to support the government’s goals in Iran.”

In a separate market outlook earlier this year, he assessed bitcoin’s sharp decline from roughly $126,000 to around $60,000 as a major macro turning point tied to global liquidity conditions and outlined two potential trajectories. He wrote: “There are two scenarios for bitcoin and shitcoins. Either bitcoin’s dump from $126,000 to $60,000 was the entire downward move and stonks will catch up, or bitcoin will dump further as stocks meet their maker.” Hayes urged traders to remain cautious until monetary conditions shift, adding: “It behooves punters to limit the use of leverage and wait for the all-clear from the Fed that it’s time to dump filthy fiat and ape into risky assets with wanton abandon.”

In another analysis focused on global liquidity dynamics, Hayes argued that expansion of central bank balance sheets acts as the mechanical driver of bitcoin bull markets, stating: “ Bitcoin will pump alongside a growing Fed balance sheet ( gold).” He characterized bitcoin as a “fiat liquidity fire alarm,” suggesting that once money printing resumes, bitcoin could rapidly move beyond its previous $126,000 peak as liquidity floods financial markets.

• Why does Arthur Hayes believe war could boost bitcoin?
  He argues geopolitical conflict often forces the Federal Reserve to cut rates and add liquidity, conditions that historically support bitcoin.
• What monetary signal does Hayes say investors should watch?
  Hayes says investors should monitor for Federal Reserve rate cuts or money printing following geopolitical escalation.
• Why might bitcoin outperform during easier monetary policy?
  Bitcoin’s fixed supply historically attracts capital when central banks expand the money supply and fiat liquidity rises.
• What crypto assets does Hayes say could benefit most?
  Hayes points to bitcoin and select high-quality altcoins as potential beneficiaries once the Federal Reserve pivots to easier policy.

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