The weekly report mentioned the non-farm data. Firstly, I would like to emphasize that the interest rate is very unlikely to be adjusted in March, and the next adjustment is more likely to be in June. Therefore, the non-farm data in February is not very important, but it will indeed affect market sentiment in the short term, while the focus in the long term is still on the second half of the year.

The data released today differs somewhat from market expectations. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. Although this figure is not high and is relatively low in the context of U.S. history, the continued rise in the unemployment rate does somewhat dampen the economic resilience of the United States.

The market has anticipated that the number of non-farm jobs would be lower than the previous value. However, the actual data not only fell below the previous value but also below market expectations, and surprisingly it was a negative number. This is the first time since October 2025. Recently, the market has been worried about layoffs triggered by AI, and although the Federal Reserve has consistently denied it, one can indeed see signs of layoffs from the financial reports of publicly traded companies due to AI.

This current data may trigger panic in the market regarding AI changing the labor structure.

Wages are a more intuitive reflection of the U.S. economy. From today’s data, wages are actually better than expected. The annual and monthly rates have shown a slight increase compared to market expectations, which also indicates that the U.S. economic environment is quite good, especially under the overall reduction of tariffs.

Finally, there is another important data point: retail data, which represents the level of prosperity in the U.S. economy. Although today's data exceeded expectations, it is still not good and has shown a negative value. However, it may also be related to tariffs, as people might be waiting to shop after tariffs are lifted and prices decrease. Overall, a month’s data does not have a significant impact, so it will be observed further.

In summary, today’s data suggests that caution is still needed regarding the U.S. economy. However, the current focus remains on geopolitical conflicts.

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