Recently I saw a set of logic online that, although it has some flaws, still has certain highlights!🧐

1️⃣ If the US stock market is a pool that holds dollars, then the excessive issuance of dollars is like water. After years of efforts in printing money, the water in the US stock market pool is full (the stock market has soared, and the US tax revenue every year cannot cover the repayment of principal and interest; the critical point has arrived).

2️⃣ The US needs to find a way to release water from the pool, so it first turned to gold as this pool, injecting water into it, expressed as the return of gold's value; now, gold has started to show divergence at high levels. Now they are looking at oil as another pool, injecting water into it (reservoir), how much will be injected? A conservative estimate goes up to 200 dollars, and the speed will be very fast, expressed as the return of oil's value.

3️⃣ Once the injection is complete, there is much less water in the US stock market pool (the excess dollars in the market decrease, dollar liquidity becomes less, and there is a severe contraction, while foreign dollars flow back to the US, causing the dollar to appreciate, and foreign currencies to sharply depreciate), leading to a crash in all assets and the economy entering a recession and economic crisis.

4️⃣ At this point, the US will start to inject water again in the name of rescuing the market (issuing US bonds) to solve its debt problems. At this time, the dollar has severely depreciated due to excessive issuance but the exchange rate has stabilized, or even appreciated; it will buy up assets, and surely this will lead to a significant impact on A-shares (appreciation of the RMB), by inflating Chinese assets and then selling them off to reap profits from China, which is a version of the Plaza Accord 1.0.

5️⃣ Crude oil is the most primitive industrial raw material, it is connected to many small pools, which represent various aspects of our lives. The water in the crude oil pool will transmit through industry to various aspects of our lives, leading to the impending vicious inflation.

6️⃣ Why does the US want to fight Iran? It creates an illusion that the increase in oil prices is due to the war, not because of issues with the dollar; this way, the depreciation of the dollar will leave no trace.

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