Accidentally saw a larger arbitrage opportunity

Buying all ranges above 2.6% on Kalshi:

2.6–3.0 (16¢) + 3.1–3.5 (9¢) + 3.6–4.0 (6¢) + 4.1–4.5 (5¢) + 4.6–5.0 (3¢) + 5.1–5.5 (2¢) + 5.6–6.0 (2¢) + 6.1+ (1¢)

Total cost (buying "yes"): 44¢

On Polymarket

Buying "no" for the range >2.5%: Price is 42¢

Total investment cost: 44¢ (Kalshi) + 42¢ (Polymarket) = 86¢

Profit margin: 14¢ / 86¢ ≈ 16.3% ROI

Of course, transaction fees should also be considered, but overall this is profitable.

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