Cross-platform arbitrage mechanism — — Polymarket + Kalshi

The essence is to find the same content with different prices to form, the smaller the total amount is below 100, the larger the arbitrage space.

For example, the title of GDP growth in 2026 is available on both Polymarket and Kalshi, but upon closer inspection, one can see there is a large spread.

On Kalshi

buying all ranges above 2.6%:

2.6–3.0 (16¢) + 3.1–3.5 (9¢) + 3.6–4.0 (6¢) + 4.1–4.5 (5¢) + 4.6–5.0 (3¢) + 5.1–5.5 (2¢) + 5.6–6.0 (2¢) + 6.1+ (1¢)

Total cost (buying is): price is 44¢

On Polymarket

seeing >2.5% this item, buying no: price is 42¢

This concept is betting on Polymarket that the GDP growth in 2026 will be less than 2.5%, while betting on Kalshi that the GDP growth in 2026 will be greater than 2.5%, creating a hedge.

Total investment cost: 44¢ (Kalshi) + 42¢ (Polymarket) = 86¢

Profit margin: 14¢ / 86¢ ≈ 16.3% ROI

Of course, transaction fees also need to be considered, but overall this is profitable.

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