Summary

Recently, the attention towards prediction markets has been growing. Opinion, as one of the projects garnering significant market interest, attempts to convert people's judgments about real-world events into tradable probability assets through an on-chain protocol. The project proposes the concept of "Multiplayer Internet", hoping that market mechanisms will allow decentralized opinions to form a priceable and verifiable collective consensus on-chain. In terms of product design, Opinion employs an order book (CLOB) trading structure, combined with on-chain settlement and an AI-assisted oracle mechanism, to build a predictive market infrastructure similar to "on-chain event exchanges". The project previously completed approximately $25 million in financing and finalized the OPN token TGE on March 5, 2026, subsequently launching trading. However, the market performance post-launch has been overall cautious, with the inflated valuation compounded by airdrop selling pressure affecting the token price. Moreover, discussions regarding airdrop allocation ratios, claiming mechanisms, and potential regulatory issues for the predictive market have also sparked some debate within the community.

1. Project Introduction

What is Opinion doing?

Opinion is a decentralized protocol built around prediction markets. It aims to turn people’s judgments about real-world events, such as macro data trends, policy outcomes, or significant news directions, into assets that can be traded on-chain. In the traditional internet, opinions are merely expressed: posting, commenting, sharing, with low costs and little verification of who’s judgment is more accurate. Opinion seeks to establish a new mechanism where when you have a judgment about something, you need to participate in the market with funds, and the market price will automatically reflect the collective probability expectation. Price thus becomes the digital expression of consensus. The official term for this idea is "Multiplayer Internet." It emphasizes that the internet is not only a space for information dissemination but also an economic system involving multiple participants jointly engaging, competing, and pricing. Opinions are thus quantified, verified, and finally settled by the market.

Technology and Product Structure

Overall, Opinion can be understood as a three-layer system: the underlying protocol defines how events are created and settled; the liquidity and matching layer is responsible for transaction execution and price formation; and the front-end application serves as the entry point for users to participate in prediction trading. Opinion has chosen a CLOB-based matching model. Users can place limit orders similar to traditional exchanges, and buyers and sellers match orders for transactions, with prices formed from genuine trading depth. This structure is closer to the market mechanisms of centralized exchanges, emphasizing price discovery under multi-party competition rather than relying on algorithmic curves to derive prices automatically. In terms of information discovery, the order book model provides a finer price hierarchy, more robust competition, and is more beneficial for forming valuable probability prices. However, it also demands higher liquidity requirements, necessitating ongoing market-making support and active user participation.

In terms of event settlement, Opinion introduces an AI-assisted oracle mechanism to help interpret complex real-world information, such as policy texts and macro data releases. This does not mean that the AI decides the outcome, but rather uses technical means to convert unstructured information into clear and verifiable settlement conditions, thereby reducing disputes and ambiguities. The product vision of Opinion is not merely to replicate traditional prediction markets but to construct a framework that more closely resembles an "on-chain event exchange": the order book is responsible for real price formation, the protocol layer ensures clear settlement logic, and AI assistance lowers information processing costs.

How do opinions become "prices"?

In Opinion's system, an event is not just voted on; it will be split into tradable "result assets". For example: "Will the CPI announced next month be above 3%?" This question will be divided into two outcome tokens: YES (above 3%) and NO (not above 3%). Since there can only be one outcome, the prices of the two tokens typically sum up to about $1.

Assuming YES is currently priced at $0.7 and NO at $0.3, it means the market overall believes the probability of the event occurring is about 70%. This price is formed by the buying and selling behaviors of all participants. When more people are willing to pay a higher price for a certain outcome, the market probability rises; conversely, it decreases. After the event is announced, the market settles according to the outcome: if CPI is above 3%, the YES token settles at $1, while the NO goes to zero; if it is not above 3%, the NO token settles at $1, while the YES goes to zero. Thus, when a user buys YES at $0.7, they are essentially purchasing an asset that might become $1 in the future, with returns depending on whether their judgment is accurate.

This mechanism is similar to the basic logic of prediction market platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, but Opinion emphasizes decentralized protocol structure and on-chain settlement, hoping to become a reusable infrastructure rather than just a single trading platform. Compared to expression through likes, this mechanism requires judgments to incur costs. When opinions require bearing risks, the noise decreases naturally, and prices have a better chance of being effective representations of collective cognition.

2. Market Dynamics

Financing and Institutional Endorsement

Since its inception, Opinion has raised approximately $25 million in total, reflecting strong capital endorsement. The seed round in 2025 was led by YZi Labs, attracting renowned Web3 investment institutions including Animoca Ventures and Amber Group. The backing from YZi Labs has brought Opinion opportunities for close collaboration within the BNB Chain ecosystem, integrating broader strategic resources. In early 2026, it received support from more tech and infrastructure-oriented capital sources such as Jump Crypto and Hack VC, which have rich investment and resource integration experiences in DeFi and infrastructure projects. This financing lineup not only provides long-term funding support for Opinion's technological development but also helps establish a relatively solid strategic network within the industry.

Hotter Prediction Market: An Increasingly Warm Structural Opportunity

In the past few years, the prediction market as a niche segment has significantly increased in popularity, gradually evolving from a relatively obscure playstyle to a more serious, application-oriented tool. On the one hand, macroeconomic data, central bank policies, etc., have become targets of interest for traders, increasing demand for probabilistic judgments; on the other hand, on-chain prediction markets can convert collective judgments into price signals, a function of information discovery that many market participants value. Protocols like Opinion are specifically attempting to evolve traditionally speculative prediction markets towards more standardized infrastructures, forming a more open market structure. The prediction market is in a transitional phase from experimental gameplay to more mature infrastructure applications.

Airdrop Controversy

Prior to the TGE, market expectations for Opinion's airdrop scale were high. Due to the project's long-term use of a points system to incentivize user participation in prediction trading and community activities, some over-the-counter markets even began pricing the points. While the airdrop ratios were still unclear, points in the OTC market peaked at nearly $45 per point. Once the ratio for TGE's airdrop was announced to be approximately 3.5% of total supply, market expectations quickly adjusted, and points prices dropped to about $6 per point, a decline of over 80%, leading to strong dissatisfaction from community users.

Additionally, the total airdrop ratio for OPN is about 23.5%, but only approximately 3.5% was allotted for the initial distribution at TGE, with the remainder to be gradually released under different conditions in subsequent stages. Some community users view this initial release ratio as too low, inconsistent with the expectations of early participants and contributors, while the points acquisition and distribution mechanism, which is relatively complex, is perceived by some users as having high comprehension costs. These factors have continued to spark discussions both before and after the launch and have affected market sentiment to a certain extent.

TGE Launch and Initial Market Feedback

The OPN token of Opinion completed its TGE on March 5, 2026, at 21:00 (Beijing time) and was launched for spot trading on exchanges such as Binance, Bitget, Gate, and CoinW. With the tokens officially circulating, the project transitioned from months of point incentives and expectation gaming into the price discovery phase of the secondary market. According to the token economics model, the initial circulating volume at TGE accounted for approximately 19.85% of the total supply. This circulation mainly stemmed from community incentives, Binance Launchpool rewards, and some liquidity allocation, resulting in the overall tradable chips being relatively limited in the early trading phase.

Before the launch, Opinion had built significant attention within the community, capitalizing on the narrative of prediction markets, participation in Binance Launchpool, and a high valuation financing background. However, based on actual market performance, OPN has not established sustained buying support. Upon trading at a fully diluted valuation of approximately $450 million, the token quickly faced selling pressure from airdrop and Launchpool users, resulting in a price drop of about 17.8% within less than 24 hours after launch, with the current FDV around $370 million, and market sentiment trending cautious.

This trend also reflects changes in prior market expectations. On one hand, incentive mechanisms like airdrops and Launchpool released a certain supply of circulation at TGE, leading some users to choose to realize profits after the token's launch, creating selling pressure in the short term; on the other hand, discussions within the community surrounding the alignment between airdrop scale, points incentive mechanisms, and genuine usage demand have also impacted market confidence to a certain extent. Multiple compounding factors have led to the overall weak market performance of OPN in the early stages following its launch.

3. Team Background

Opinion was created by Opinion Labs, with the team displaying a composite structure of traditional finance and blockchain technology. The project's founder and CEO, Forrest Liu, graduated from Columbia University and previously worked in corporate financing and investment at CMB International Capital, possessing private equity and institutional capital market experience. On the technical side, the co-founder members have experience in quantitative trading and large system development, with some core members having previously worked at JPMorgan Chase, McKinsey & Company, and Amazon, according to public information. However, compared to some leading predictive market projects, the overall level of openness of the Opinion team is relatively limited, and the community has previously discussed transparency issues. Overall, Opinion's team has advantages in combining financial and technical backgrounds, but its long-term development still requires validation through product performance and data growth.

4. Token Information

OPN is the native token of Opinion, with a total supply of 1 billion tokens. According to the officially disclosed token economic model, approximately 23.5% is allocated for airdrops and community incentives (of which about 3.5% is released during TGE), 23% is distributed to investors, 19.5% is allocated to the team and advisors, and the remainder is used for ecological development, foundations, and market promotion, among other purposes. Team and investor shares typically come with lock-up and linear release mechanisms to mitigate short-term selling pressure risks.

In terms of design, OPN serves as the core functional asset of the entire "Multiplayer Internet" ecosystem. It can be used to access advanced data and oracle services, such as macro data analysis, predictive signals, and on-chain analytical tools. As ecological applications increase, some data services and analytical tools may require the use of OPN for access. OPN also plays a role in ecological usage and permission certificates. For instance, in some applications, holding or using OPN may grant transaction fee discounts, VIP privileges, or advanced features. Additionally, OPN is used for protocol governance, allowing token holders to participate in voting decisions on key parameters, oracle rules, and ecological development directions.

Overall, the project aims to bind token value with the development of the predictive market ecosystem through various scenarios, including data services, platform equity, and governance rights.

5. Competitive Landscape

Sector Benchmarking and Competition

In terms of sector, prediction markets are not a brand new concept. Over the past few years, various projects with different models have emerged, such as Augur, Polymarket, and Kalshi. These platforms are all trying to convert people’s judgments about future events into tradable probability prices through market trading methods.

However, from a positioning perspective, Opinion's approach is somewhat different. Platforms like Polymarket or Kalshi are more akin to singular prediction trading platforms, where users mainly participate in market trading through their front-end; whereas Opinion emphasizes the role of protocol layer infrastructure, hoping to allow different applications to connect to the same set of predictive market infrastructure through standardized event tokens and shared liquidity mechanisms. Its goal is not merely to establish a prediction trading website but to become the underlying protocol for prediction markets. If such a model can be established, theoretically multiple applications may share the same liquidity and market structure, thereby improving overall market efficiency. However, this also implies that the project needs to simultaneously promote the growth of both the protocol ecosystem and the trading market in its early stages, raising the difficulty of development.

Market Share

Opinion has accumulated a certain level of trading activity prior to the token issuance. The platform launched on the BNB Chain in October 2025. According to research statistics from Messari, during the first three weeks from October 24 to November 17, 2025, the platform's average daily nominal trading volume was approximately $132.5 million, with a cumulative nominal trading volume exceeding $3.1 billion. With increased user participation, during the period from November 11 to 17, 2025, Opinion's weekly nominal trading volume reached approximately $1.5 billion, accounting for about 40% of the global prediction market trading volume that week, briefly surpassing Polymarket and Kalshi to become the highest trading volume prediction market platform of that week.

In terms of actual transaction volume, based on DefiLlama data, since the platform's launch, the cumulative trading volume has approached $10 billion, with approximately $1.2 billion in trading volume over the past 30 days, an open interest of approximately $31 million, and a TVL of around $29 million. In the current prediction market sector, Polymarket and Kalshi still hold strong brand and user bases, while Opinion, with its points incentive mechanism, has gained a certain market share in a short time. However, the trading activities are primarily occurring at the application layer of the platform and do not entirely reflect in the on-chain data of the OPN token, so its long-term value still depends on whether the demand for prediction market trading can continue to grow.

Risks and Challenges

Although prediction markets have unique value in information discovery and probabilistic pricing, this sector still carries certain uncertainties. Prediction markets often rely on oracles to obtain real-world data; if disputes arise regarding data sources or settlement rules, it may affect market credibility, hence the mechanisms related still require long-term operation to verify stability. Additionally, Opinion's price relies on genuine trading formation; if there are insufficient market participants, the price may not fully reflect real probabilities, and trading depth may be impacted. Lastly, since prediction markets involve trading outcomes of political, economic, or social events, some countries and regions may regard them as gambling or financial derivative businesses, creating a certain gray area at the policy level. Future changes in regulatory attitudes may also impact the development of the entire sector.

References

1. Opinion Official website: https://opinion.foundation/

2. Opinion docs: https://docs.opinion.trade/

3. Opinion tokenomics: https://medium.com/@info_82635/introducing-opn-the-native-token-of-the-multiplayer-internet-445cf2c575a2

4. Opinion Prediction Market Thwarts Kalshi and Polymarket With $1.5 Billion Weekly Volume: https://beincrypto.com/opinion-trade-leads-prediction-markets

5. Opinion Nearly All Users Suffered Losses, Airdrop Value Less Than Platform Fee Income?: https://www.odaily.news/en/post/5209576

6. Opinion DefiLlama: https://defillama.com/protocol/opinion

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