Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author | Asher（@Asher_ 0210）

The 98th Academy Awards will be held on March 15, 2026. As the awards night approaches, discussions about "who will win" are rapidly intensifying.

In addition to predictions from traditional media, film critics, and fans, the crypto prediction market is also providing a set of answers. So, who do the participants in the prediction market think will win the major awards at this year's Oscars?

Next, Odaily Planet Daily will analyze the winning probabilities of each award based on the latest market data from Polymarket. At the same time, we will explain the betting situation of the top addresses holding relevant events to find potential trading opportunities.

Best Picture Award: "One Battle After Another" leads with a 76% real-time odds

Polymarket corresponding event: Oscars 2026: Best Picture Winner, trading volume exceeds 29 million dollars;

Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-picture-winner.

Currently, in the Best Picture award, "One Battle After Another" is in the lead with a 75% real-time probability, with "Sinners" in second place at 20% probability.

Address Analysis

Top address holding YES for "One Battle After Another": 0x2a019dc0089ea8c6edbbafc8a7cc9ba77b4b6397, this address has a win rate of 89.7%, and the average price for YES holding of "One Battle After Another" is 54.8 cents.

Address holding only "One Battle After Another": 0x8f49c70ce8e353c0531d39f5448f0ba5f561bf8d, this address purchased nearly 10,000 YES positions at an average price of 74 cents five days ago, currently holding only the single event for "One Battle After Another" to win the Best Picture award.

Best Actor Award: Michael B. Jordan leads with 57% real-time odds

Polymarket corresponding event: Oscars 2026: Best Actor Winner, trading volume nearly 7 million dollars;

Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-actor-winner.

Currently, in the Best Actor award, Michael B. Jordan is leading with a 57% real-time probability, while Timothée Chalamet ranks second at 34% probability.

It is worth mentioning that before the 7th of this month, Timothée Chalamet's winning probability was in first place and once peaked at 80%.

Address Analysis

Top address holding YES for Michael B. Jordan: 0x4cc25002e1b5d09c1dab0d26dbe2333648829271, this address has a win rate of only 48%, with a historical profit and loss of negative 200,000 dollars.

Top address holding NO for Michael B. Jordan: 0xafbacaeeda63f31202759eff7f8126e49adfe61b, this address has a win rate of 53%, with a historical profit and loss of 172,000 dollars.

Top address holding YES for Timothée Chalamet: 0x4cc25002e1b5d09c1dab0d26dbe2333648829271, which is also the top address holding YES for Michael B. Jordan, indicating this address is betting that either Michael B. Jordan or Timothée Chalamet will win the Best Actor award.

Top address holding NO for Timothée Chalamet: 0x9d84ce0306f8551e02efef1680475fc0f1dc1344, this address has a high win rate of 63%, with a historical profit and loss of 2.82 million dollars.

Best Director Award: Paul Thomas Anderson leads with 91% real-time odds

Polymarket corresponding event: Oscars 2026: Best Director Winner, trading volume nearly 5 million dollars;

Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-director-winner.

Currently, in the Best Director award, Paul Thomas Anderson is leading with a 94% real-time probability, making this award almost certain, possibly a "financial bureau".

Address Analysis

Top address holding YES for Paul Thomas Anderson: 0x998154d8eb4ba7c4b34b10d76b9742d922d7dec4, this address has a high win rate of 83.6%, and the average price for YES holding of Paul Thomas Anderson is 93 cents.

Best Actress Award: Jessie Buckley leads with 97% real-time odds

Polymarket corresponding event: Oscars 2026: Best Actress Winner, trading volume exceeds 1.5 million dollars;

Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-actress-winner.

Currently, in the Best Actress award, Jessie Buckley is leading with a 97% real-time probability, making this award also nearly certain, possibly a "financial bureau".

Other Popular Awards

Additionally, the awards that are receiving a lot of discussion include:

First, Best Supporting Actress Award (link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-supporting-actress-winner), Amy Madigan leads with a 52% real-time odds; Teyana Taylor ranks second with a probability of 26%; Wunmi Mosaku ranks third with a probability of 21%.

Second, Best Supporting Actor Award (link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-supporting-actor-winner), Sean Penn leads with a 73% real-time odds; Stellan Skarsgård ranks second with a probability of 19%; Delroy Lindo ranks third with a probability of 7%.

Third, Best Cinematography Award (link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-cinematography-winner), "One Battle After Another" leads with a 73% real-time odds; "Sinners" ranks second with a probability of 20%.

Fourth, Best Original Screenplay Award (link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-original-screenplay-winner), "Sinners" leads with a 96% real-time odds, possibly a "financial bureau".

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