On March 13, 2026, the nerve of the global financial market was pricked by the same needle — crude oil prices.

On Thursday, Brent crude futures closed at $100.46 per barrel, surging 9.22% in a single day; WTI crude followed closely, reaching $95.73, up 9.72%. This marks the first time since August 2022 that international oil prices have decisively returned to three-digit territory.

Amidst this wave of black gold boiled by geopolitical flames, a market that initially seemed unrelated has displayed remarkable resilience — Bitcoin firmly holding above the $70,000 mark.

Is this merely a coincidence of risk aversion, or a profound restructuring of capital logic?

1. The Gate of Hormuz: The "Largest Supply Disruption in History"

● To understand the craziness of oil prices, one must turn their gaze to the narrow waterway at the entrance of the Persian Gulf — The Strait of Hormuz. Approximately 21 million barrels of crude oil pass through here daily, accounting for more than one-fifth of global maritime oil trade. However, in the past 48 hours, this "artery" of world energy has nearly come to a standstill.

● Iran's new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei left no room for illusion in the market with his first statement after taking office. He clearly stated that Iran will continue to use the blockade of the Strait as a strategic means and called on regional neighbors to close U.S. military bases. Almost simultaneously, two tankers were attacked in Iraqi waters, and Iraq announced a nationwide suspension of all oil terminal operations.

● The International Energy Agency (IEA) used a rare phrase in the oil market report released on March 12: global oil is facing the "largest supply disruption in history". Data show that transits through the Strait of Hormuz plummeted by over 90%, with global oil supplies decreasing by an average of 8 million barrels per day that month, affecting 7.5% of global supply.

● This is no longer a category that can be summarized by "risk premium." As senior researcher Zhong Jian of the 52HZ shipping research institute mentioned, the market has surpassed the panic over "war risks" and officially entered the "supply disruption pricing" phase. As long as navigation through the Strait remains obstructed, oil prices are very likely to operate on a stable platform between $90 and $110.

2. Failed "Painkillers": Why Can't 400 Million Barrels of Reserves Suppress Panic?

● In the face of surging oil prices, policymakers are not indifferent. Just the day before, the IEA announced that all 32 member countries agreed to release 400 million barrels of strategic oil reserves, setting a record for the largest release since the agency was established. The United States pledged to contribute 172 million barrels, planning to release them in the market over 120 days.

● However, this historic scale of "collective bloodletting" not only failed to calm the market, but ignited the fuse.

● The logic is not complicated. The market trades on "the present" and "expectations," not on deliveries months later. 400 million barrels may seem astronomical, but if spread over daily needs, it only covers about 50 days of global crude oil demand; set against the daily disrupted supply of millions of barrels in the Strait of Hormuz, it is mere drops in the bucket.

● Analyst Han Zheng from Jinlianchuan Oil pointed out that while emergency reserves can alleviate some countries' refinery input pressure, there are delays in the release speed, and there is limited ability to further suppress oil price increases. More critically, the market is genuinely seeking stable and predictable daily crude oil "flow," rather than a one-time injection of "stock" — inventory transfusions cannot save a ruptured artery.

● An even more dramatic scene comes from internal policy conflicts within the United States. As the White House considers intervening in the futures market to curb oil prices, Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) CEO Terry Duffy issued a stern warning: government intervention in market pricing could trigger an "epic disaster,” destroying investors' confidence in the price discovery function. Meanwhile, the U.S. Energy Secretary explicitly stated that the Navy is "not yet prepared" to escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. This sense of oscillation and helplessness at the policy level further magnified traders' panic.

3. The Great Migration of Capital: From Wall Street to Digital Vaults

The soaring flames of oil prices have ignited not only the price tags at gas stations but also a reconstruction of the entire macro asset pricing logic.

● First and foremost, U.S. stocks took a hit. On March 12, the Nasdaq fell by 1.6%, and the S&P 500 dropped by 1.2%. Financial giants like JPMorgan, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo saw declines of about 3%, while private equity firms KKR and Ares Management also fell by 3%-4%. The market is concerned not only about the cost increase driven by oil prices but also about the lurking stagflation specter — the nightmare of stagnant economic growth coupled with high inflation.

● Jim Reid, head of macro strategy at Deutsche Bank, warned that if there are no solid signs of de-escalation in conflict, the risk of a broader stagflation shock is significantly increasing.

However, amidst the mourning of traditional assets, there is an outlier quietly gaining strength.

● Bitcoin, a digital asset that has been questioned by many over its "lack of intrinsic value," stood firm above $70,000 on Thursday, even as oil prices approached $100 and geopolitical tensions surged.

● James Butterfill, research director at CoinShares, observed a key change: oil prices and the geopolitics behind them have become the main driving force of global asset pricing, while the market's sensitivity to expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes is diminishing. In other words, when "political alignment" and "supply chain disruptions" replace "rate hike probabilities" as the primary variables, the sorting of asset attributes shifts accordingly.

● The resilience Bitcoin demonstrates at this moment can no longer be simply explained by "speculative funds having nowhere to go." Dom Harz believes this reflects institutional investors' demand for Bitcoin, which has transcended mere price speculation and shifted toward its deep value as financial utility infrastructure.

● The flow of capital provides evidence. Amidst heightened volatility in the U.S. stock, commodity, and bond markets, large on-chain transactions have seen frequent fluctuations, with some institutional funds viewing crypto assets as a "digital reserve" to avoid traditional market credit risks. A new narrative is taking shape: when gold fails to respond immediately to its safe-haven attributes for various reasons, Bitcoin — with its 24/7 global trading, borderless nature, and resistance to censorship — has instead become a liquidity safe haven for capital in extreme geopolitical risks.

4. The "Backlash" of Inflation and the Central Bank's Dilemma

The oil price frenzy has thrown a depth charge into the already complex global inflation landscape.

● The U.S. February CPI data has just been released, overall in line with expectations, and the impact of the soaring oil prices has not yet been fully accounted for. However, the market is already pricing ahead: if oil prices continue running above $100, imported inflation will force the Federal Reserve to reconsider its rate-cutting path.

● Latest data from CME's "Fed Watch" shows that the market expects a 99.1% probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in March, while the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points by June is only 19.5%. This stands in stark contrast to the market's enthusiastic expectation at the beginning of the year for "multiple rate cuts within the year."

● For the crypto market, this presents a set of contradictory signals: in the short term, geopolitical risks are boosting safe-haven demand, with funds flowing into Bitcoin; but in the mid-term, if oil prices result in persistent inflation and liquidity tightening, all risk assets will face valuation compression as a "headwind."

● This sense of tearing is a true reflection of the current market. On March 12, after Bitcoin surged to $71,000, there was noticeable divergence in funds, with large on-chain transaction volumes contracting, and core power players opted to observe from high positions. This indicates that even the staunchest advocates of "digital gold" are closely monitoring the "total gate" of macro liquidity.

5. The Future: Between Disruption and Reconstruction

What lies ahead? The market will focus closely on several key variables:

● First, the physical navigation status of the Strait of Hormuz. As long as the blockade persists, the logic of supply disruption will not crumble, and oil prices will have strong support in the $90-$110 range. If the conflict expands to ports or oil facilities, prices above $110 will not be alarmist.

● Second, the U.S. policy response. Temporary waivers of the Jones Act allowing foreign tankers to transport along the coast, continued release of reserves, or direct military escorting — each option could trigger dramatic fluctuations in oil prices.

● Third, the choice of capital. If U.S. stocks remain under pressure and U.S. Treasury yields rise due to inflation expectations, whether Bitcoin can establish a new balance around $70,000 will test the market's recognition of its "macro immunity" properties.

A clear conclusion is: the world is paying a high risk premium for "geopolitical fragmentation." From oil to grain, from stocks to cryptocurrencies, all asset prices are reassessing a fundamental fact — the old era based on globalization, low inflation, and stable expectations is rapidly collapsing.

In this unprecedented change that hasn't occurred in a century, no asset can truly stand alone, but some assets can find their own anchor amidst the storm.

The $70,000 that Bitcoin holds may not just be a number, but a trust vote cast by part of the capital in the "new world." Yet, the final result of this vote still hinges on when the smoke of war above the Strait of Hormuz will dissipate.

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