Author: Frank, PANews

Whenever the market enters a confusing phase of uncertainty, there will be attempts to predict the next trend using a "seeking a sword by carving a boat" historical retrospective method. In such cases, people often see that history is always repeating itself in these theories and charts, and they seem to automatically overlap the trends of the future with a certain past period for validation.

This overlap seems to have a magical effect and is often validated. Some bloggers claim that the accuracy of these predictions can reach 75% to 80%.

This "seeking a sword by carving a boat" style price prediction that has repeatedly gone viral on social media, does it help the market identify phases, or does it package noise as prophecy?

From "Tick-Tock Fractal" to "Historical Rhymes"

The pinnacle operation predicting the market peak in October 2025 is an analyst named CryptoBullet, who created an analysis method called "tick-tock" (滴答分形). Starting in May 2025, CryptoBullet predicted that the BTC price would peak in October.

Ultimately, this model successfully predicted the end of the bull market. However, regarding the price, CryptoBullet predicted $150,000, while the actual highest price only reached $126,000.

From the principle of his prediction model, achieving such an effect was expected; his main logic was that in past cycles, a certain number of days after the halving often approached a peak. When the market had entered a similar window, it was possible to project that October would reach up to $150,000 by extrapolating based on the same time intervals and price developments. The most important parameter in this logic is the time cycle; therefore, the time prediction realized a relatively accurate point, but the price did not hit the mark.

Another case is KillaXBT, whose core idea is that history does not repeat precisely but often "rhymes". He adapts to the current market by combining time cycles, historical pivot windows, and structural symmetry.

For example, he does not pull all time cycles into a fixed ratio, emphasizing that something will happen at a particular time. Instead, he compares the current price window and trend with a certain phase in historical trends and then vaguely predicts the possible future trend.

This prediction does not involve very specific prices or exact points in time, but merely judges whether the upcoming market will rise or fall.

KillaXBT claims that the accuracy of these predictions can reach 75% to 80%.

PANews reviewed several of his recent predictions. For example, in December 2025, he analyzed the then-current price trend and found it highly similar to that of 2021. He predicted it might find a bottom at $80,000, then break through $90,000. The actual trend was that the price did not drop below $80,000 but it did eventually break above $90,000, reaching almost $98,000. Although the price was not accurately predicted, the trend of this prediction indeed resembled his simulated 2021 range.

In January 2026, KillaXBT used another prediction method to state that based on statistical patterns from the past seven months, the average decline within two weeks after the 14th of each month is 8%. Therefore, he predicted that after January 14th, the market might enter a downward channel again, at least declining by 8%.

In fact, this prediction also demonstrated accuracy. After briefly peaking on January 15th, the market indeed entered a rapid decline channel, with a maximum drop of over 38%.

In February 2026, he predicted again that the current trend had a relatively similar script to that of 2022. It could peak again before breaking down below $60,000 to form a bottom range. Of course, this prediction has not yet been validated. However, the recent price rebound to around $74,000 indeed verifies part of the trend in his prediction chart.

At first glance, KillaXBT's predictions seem quite accurate. This has also earned him a lot of attention and fans.

Mysticism or Science? The Three Major Logics Behind "Seeking a Sword by Carving a Boat" High Win Rate

But the next question is more practical: why are these "seeking a sword by carving a boat" predictions accurate? Is it mysticism or is there some scientific basis?

First: History does indeed rhyme, but the essence of this rhyming is that the market structure due to liquidity and market heat tends to be similar. For example, in the "Wyckoff Method", the market is divided into four stages: accumulation, markup, distribution, and decline.

The underlying repetition of market evolution comes from the repetitive performance of market sentiment, from panic to euphoria, and then from euphoria back to panic.

Second: The efficacy of this prediction is not an exclusive ability of the "seeking a sword by carving a boat" method; most commonly used technical indicators can achieve similar predictive effects. If you look back at the historical performance of indicators like MACD, RSI, and trend lines, you will find that these indicators often provide warning information at price peaks and troughs. However, firstly, these indicators are too familiar to the trading community, lacking a sense of mystery. Secondly, compared to the "seeking a sword by carving a boat" method, these indicators are not as intuitively capable of showcasing specific trend structures (for example, first rising slightly, then falling). But people inherently prefer this direct and simple expression.

Third: There is a large amount of lucky bias after numerous predictions. In the book "The Drunkard's Walk", there is an example stating that if you put an infinite number of monkeys in front of typewriters and let them pound randomly, one of them will definitely type out the "Iliad" narrative poem word for word. This does not mean that these analysts are simply making random analyses, but rather highlights that every day, a large number of predictions are made on social media, and those incorrect predictions either go unnoticed or are quietly deleted. The ones that remain and are acknowledged as quality cases are largely also the result of lucky bias. The goal of KOLs is traffic, while traders seek profits in real accounts.

Predictions of the "seeking a sword by carving a boat" style have not just emerged today in the crypto space; years ago, many similar theories surfaced, such as TechDev overlaying the Bitcoin monthly line with the 2013 cycle and the gold trends of the 1970s, giving a peak expectation of $200,000 to $390,000; PlanB, using stock-to-flow and floor models, projected halving rhythms to near $100,000. Many analysts directly applied segments from 2017 and 2021 to today's trends.

By this cycle, these predictors have almost all failed, and the topic is minimal. When old prophets are eliminated by the market, new line-drawing masters will again present new mysticism. (Related reading: When "old maps" no longer apply: Reviewing 8 failed classic crypto indicators and their structural reasons)

Seeing Direction Does Not Equal Trading Strategy, Deadly Flaws in Practice

Now, let’s look at a more important question: does this "seeking a sword by carving a boat" method have any practical effect on actual trading?

We'll revisit the previously mentioned cases to illustrate this.

First, let’s look at CryptoBullet’s prediction of reaching a peak in October 2025 at $150,000. In actual trading, the factors to consider typically include price direction, precise timing, take profit and stop-loss, and position management.

In CryptoBullet's prediction, it only provided a relatively vague time point, and the price was incorrect. As an executable trading strategy, the reference value of such a judgment is actually limited. It would be difficult to precisely establish a short position at the beginning of October simply based on "the peak will be in October," because this judgment neither provided a clear entry point nor specified clear invalidation conditions. If a trader shorts too early, they might be swept out by the rising momentum at the end; when waiting for the price to show genuine weakness signals and reviewing the prediction, it would merely confirm "the time window was approximately correct" and not a directly actionable trading system.

Now, let’s look at KillaXBT’s prediction in December; its assistance in actual trading was more about directional judgment rather than an execution manual. He told you that "the trend is likely to find a bottom first, then break through upwards," but did not specify whether to buy at $82,000, $80,000, or around $78,000, nor did he indicate that if it drops below a certain level, the analogy is invalid. For medium to long-term investors, such judgments might help stabilize positions and avoid panic selling during declines. But for traders who require precise entry and exit timing, it still lacks the most critical execution information.

KillaXBT's prediction in January might be the most accurate prediction, but the issue is that the price began to fall only after the 15th, meaning that if trades were executed based on that predictive method, they would likely trigger stop losses on upward price movements. Moreover, this predictive structure also lacked specific price information, making it impossible to set stop-loss and take-profit levels based on it.

In summary, these "seeking a sword by carving a boat" style predictions seem more like a phase identification tool rather than a directly reusable trading strategy. They can occasionally help identify risk zones and emotional inflection points for the market and indeed provide some insights into vague directions. However, once packaged as high-certainty prophecies, issues quickly become apparent.

History may rhyme, but it won’t photocopy from screenshots.

For ordinary investors, what is truly worth referencing is not a single "mystical chart," but the emotions, liquidity, and structural changes these charts attempt to indicate; what really needs to be cautioned against is treating this vague phase judgment as a precise trading directive.

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