Daily market key data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.
Macroeconomic Market
Brent crude oil prices have once again surpassed $100/barrel, with the market repricing for "supply disruption risks". Crude oil, the US dollar, and US Treasury yields have all risen to their highest levels since the US-Israel conflict, with all three major US stock indices dropping over 1.5%, and all sectors, except for energy, are generally under pressure.
The current market is primarily concerned about the further escalation of the US-Iran conflict. Both Trump and Iran's new supreme leader have made hardline statements, making de-escalation unlikely in the short term. Richard Dalton, the former UK ambassador to Iran, stated that the US-Israel conflict "lacks a clear plan" and could lead to an uncontrollable situation. Goldman Sachs warned that if the conflict continues, Brent crude oil prices could exceed the historical high of $147.50/barrel set in 2008.
Terry Duffy, CEO of the CME Group, warned that if the US government intervenes in the oil futures market, it could trigger an "epic disaster". In response to soaring oil prices, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has stated that the US Navy will escort tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and temporarily allow countries to purchase stranded Russian crude oil at sea to stabilize oil prices. The International Energy Agency (IEA) pointed out that the war in Iran has led to the largest oil supply disruption in history, further raising global inflation expectations.
As oil prices soar and inflationary pressures rise, expectations for US rate cuts have been shattered. Traders are now pricing in less than one 25 basis point cut in 2026, and confidence in the Federal Reserve restarting a monetary easing cycle has further weakened. Analysts believe that the rise in energy and food prices will have a more significant impact on future inflation data, forcing the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates to counter risks.
Under the influence of the "weekend effect," market volatility has further intensified. Investors, worried about unexpected events over the weekend, have chosen to exit, leading to significant capital outflows. The dual pressures of high oil prices and rising US Treasury yields may reshape market trading logic, with the energy sector being favored, while risk assets continue to be under pressure. Analysts warn that if oil prices remain above $100 for an extended period, trading strategies from the past two years may be completely rewritten.
Bitcoin Market
Bitcoin has consolidated in the range of $62,000 to $72,000 for over a month; despite the spread of the US-Iran conflict and the increase of 1.85 million Americans applying for unemployment benefits adding to macroeconomic gloom, Bitcoin has ignored macro headwinds and geopolitical conflicts, maintaining its price above $70,000 for four consecutive days.
In terms of options, Adam@Greeks.liv data shows that today there are Bitcoin options with a nominal value of $1.8 billion expiring, with the maximum pain point at $69,000. However, it is noteworthy that today's expiring options only account for 6% of the total open interest, the lowest level in recent years, indicating that Bitcoin trading enthusiasm is at an extremely low level. Nevertheless, the maximum pain point this week has not continued to decline, marking the first rebound in the downward trend seen in recent months.
The current BTC price is stuck between the realized price of $54,400 and the actual market average price of $78,000, rebounding 17% after falling below $60,000; the super short-term cost line of 1 to 4 weeks is temporarily supported. However, there is a pressure point at $78,880 with 2.42 million chips from long-term holders between 1 to 2 years. The options market on March 20 is gathering $180 million in Gamma risk at $74,000 (options risk indicator).
The shutdown price range for miners between $62,000 and $70,000 is facing severe tests. The 200-week moving average at $68,000 and the 300-week moving average at $57,000 are macro supports that are precarious. However, the BTC/gold ratio has shown bullish divergence at the critical support level of 12-13, and combined with historical patterns where the S&P rebounded 19% after a 16% drop in a US midterm election year and Bitcoin rebounded 54% after a 56% crash, CryptoQuant's bull market score index has jumped from 10 to 30, indicating that the market is brewing hope for a reversal amid panic.
Bearing Views
The core logic of the bearish camp is that the current price increase is merely a dead cat bounce and liquidity sweep, with miners in dire straits suffering significant losses, and the macro downtrend has not been reversed.
KillaXBT warns that if the key support cannot be held, the market will inevitably bleed downward, targeting well below 60K.
Murphy anticipates the limit of weak rebounds to be between $74,000 and $79,000, and plans to short decisively when the price reaches that range.
Greeny points out that the miners' life-and-death line is being breached, and the 200-week moving average serves as an extremely dangerous pseudo-support, with lower levels just a matter of time.
Donaxbt bluntly states that the current trend is a typical "dead cat bounce" and expects it to continue declining in accordance with the macro trend after reaching upward resistance.
LP_NXT observes that there is significant sell pressure above, believing the market is more likely to test deeper liquidity downward.
Bullish Views
The core logic of the bullish camp is that technical indicators have issued rare strong buy signals, with institutional spot buying disregarding price to accumulate massively.
Shang points out that TradFi buying has made a strong comeback, as geopolitical risk-averse funds are voting with their feet, massively shifting from traditional safe-haven assets to the crypto market.
Sykodelic emphasizes that the current trend is by no means a replica of 2022, with several technical indicators forming golden crosses and buying signals, ensuring that the market will rise.
Daan Crypto Trades indicates that the market has welcomed its first solid weekly bullish candle in nearly two months, with bottom support already appearing.
Titan of Crypto asserts that as long as it breaks strongly above the real market average resistance zone, Bitcoin will completely end its downward trend and welcome a macro reversal.
Market Dynamics
Yesterday, a large whale attempted to exchange $50 million USDT for AAVE on the Aave interface but, ignoring the slippage warning, ended up obtaining only 324 AAVE, leading to nearly $50 million evaporating. This slippage disaster sparked intense debate within the industry regarding DeFi safety protocols. Aave founder Stani.eth urgently responded, confirming that the system had fulfilled its obligation to warn, but out of sympathy, promised to refund $600,000 in transaction fees and called for the industry to establish more comprehensive user protection mechanisms.
Key Data (as of March 13, 13:00 HKT)
(Data source: CoinAnk, Upbit, SoSoValue, CryptoBubbles)
Bitcoin ETF: +53.8681 million, net inflow for 4 days
Ethereum ETF: +72.3677 million, net inflow for 3 days
XRP ETF: -6.0806 million
SOL ETF: +3.9248 million
Fear and Greed Index: 15 (Extreme Fear)
Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: XRP, BTC, ETH, ENSO, NOM
Sector gains and losses: The crypto sector generally rose, with the AI sector leading over 7%
24-hour liquidation data: A total of 61,671 people globally were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $197 million, including $76.62 million for BTC, $52.58 million for ETH, and $10.78 million for SOL.
Today's Outlook
Upbit will delist Solar (SXP) and Oasys (OAS) on March 13
Binance wallet will launch Unitas Labs (UP) subscription on March 13
ROBO token claims will close on March 13
Binance will launch a perpetual contract for EWYUSDT U, tracking the Korean stock market ETF
Aptos (APT) will unlock approximately 11.31 million tokens on March 13, valued at about $10.5 million
WBT will unlock approximately 81.5 million tokens on March 13, valued at about $4.12 billion
Sei (SEI) will unlock approximately 55.56 million tokens on March 15, valued at about $3.6 million
Starknet (STRK) will unlock approximately 127 million tokens on March 15, valued at about $4.8 million
CONX will unlock approximately 1.32 million tokens on March 15, valued at about $15.27 million
The top gainers among the top 100 cryptocurrencies today: Pi Network up 29.7%, ASI Alliance up 22.6%, Render up 20.1%, River up 17.3%, Bittensor up 14%.
Hot News
A certain whale spent 20.58 million sUSDS to build a position in ETH after sleeping for four months
Bitmine is suspected of buying 30,000 ETH again today, roughly equivalent to $61.89 million
The suspected Trend Research wallet shorted 27,000 ETH by borrowing coins four hours ago
US Senator: The crypto market structure bill is not expected to pass before April
Binance Alpha will remove MIRROR, SHARDS, FST, and other tokens from the recommendation list
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