It's still war, and now the impact of the war is increasingly serious. Yesterday's war against Iran led to disappointing expectations for the Republican midterm elections, and the public is blaming Trump more for the rise in oil prices. On the other hand, the increase in oil prices and geopolitical conflicts have raised the probability of a recession in the U.S. from a low of 19% in February to the current 37%. Meanwhile, Trump is still trying to appeal Powell's decision.

I wonder if friends still remember that in a statistic from early this year, the most trusted U.S. government official in 2025 was Powell. Now, Trump is fighting on multiple fronts: externally, it's the war with Iran, and internally, he's attacking Powell and signing executive orders on housing reform. The issue of tariffs is still causing chaos, and U.S. oil prices continue to rise, about to exceed $100.

This extent of the war probably surprised Trump, but for both Trump and the Democrats, time is short before the midterm elections. If Trump has any trump cards left, he will almost have to play them soon.

Looking at Bitcoin data, today the price of $BTC has seen a partial retraction following the U.S. stock market, mainly due to the impact of the war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Trump understands the current economic impact, so his recent statements have been about how the economy will rebound after the ceasefire, but there is still no clear information on when that ceasefire will occur.

As it stands, as long as we remain in a state of war, the price of Bitcoin will continue to fluctuate with oil prices. Data from the prediction markets generally do not believe that the U.S.-Iran war can stop in the short term, and if it continues, the impact on the market may become even greater.

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