Author: Artemis Analytics

Translation: TechFlow

TechFlow Introduction: This weekly report demonstrates one thing with data: the crypto market is transitioning from defense to offense. For two consecutive weeks, ETFs have seen net inflows, on-chain gold supply has tripled, and HIP-3 open contracts have reached new all-time highs—these three indicators are strengthening simultaneously, with macro uncertainties driving funds to reprice hard assets.

Market Overview: This Week in Review

Welcome back to Artemis' "Digital Finance Fundamentals" weekly report!

This week, crypto assets have significantly outperformed. HYPE performed the best with a +18.8% increase over the past 7 days; Figure Technologies (+13.1%) and Circle (+11.7%) also recorded substantial gains. Among mainstream assets, Ethereum (+5.2%), Solana (+4.7%), and Bitcoin (+4.7%) all rose, while Uniswap (+4.2%) and SKY (+8.3%) further boosted the overall rise of digital assets.

Notably, cryptocurrencies outperformed traditional stocks this week. Despite digital assets and crypto concept stocks largely seeing red, Coinbase (-0.9%) and Robinhood (-5.0%) underperformed the market, with more divergence in equity performance. For traditional benchmark indices, the S&P 500 fell -1.5% and the Nasdaq 100 fell -1.0% this week. Overall, market risk appetite has clearly flowed back to crypto assets, with tokens and certain crypto-related stocks significantly outperforming the market.

Highlights of This Issue

HIP-3 open contracts and trading volume hit all-time highs, driven by oil futures.

Crypto ETFs see net inflows for two consecutive weeks.

On-chain tokenized gold supply exceeds 1.2 million ounces.

1. HIP-3 open contracts and trading volume hit new highs, with oil futures as the main driver

This week, HIP-3's open interest (OI) reached new highs: on March 12, total OI reached approximately $1.3 billion. The platform trade.xyz contributed about $1.2 billion, while smaller platforms like Dreamcash and HyENA provided some incremental depth.

More important than the absolute numbers is the change in drivers. As of March 14, oil's share of the total open interest in HIP-3 had risen to 31%—whereas for most of January and February, this share was almost negligible. In less than two weeks, oil has surged from a marginal role to become one of the largest sources of demand in the entire ecosystem.

This shift signifies that HIP-3 is transcending crypto-native long-tail experiments and evolving into a truly permissionless macro expression venue. As offshore traders seek to quickly gain exposure to oil, indices, and event-driven volatility, funds are accelerating their flow to on-chain. If this trend continues, HIP-3 could become the clearest case of an on-chain market beginning to take on global commodity flows.

2. Crypto ETFs see net inflows for two consecutive weeks

Crypto ETF fund flows remained positive for the second consecutive week, further indicating a rebound in institutional demand. For the week ending March 8, net inflows totaled $609.9 million, led by Bitcoin ETFs (+$568.5 million), with Ethereum (+$23.5 million) and Solana (+$22 million) also recording healthy inflows. Ripple-related products saw slight net outflows (-$4.1 million), yet the overall fund flow remains positive.

A more critical conclusion is that this no longer resembles a one-week rebound. Following several weeks of pressure, the consecutive two weeks of positive data indicate that asset allocators are gradually rebuilding their crypto exposure.

The macro logic supporting these fund flows is directly related to the conflict with Iran.

(Hayes' "iOS Warfare" is currently the most detailed exposition of this logic.)

The macro backdrop could also continue to provide support. Geopolitical pressures, rising oil prices, and a reassessment of the market's expectations for Fed rate cuts are prompting investors to seriously consider hard assets and alternative value storage tools. If macro uncertainties persist, ETF demand may remain robust as allocators rebuild their crypto positions.

3. On-chain tokenized gold supply exceeds 1.2 million ounces

This week, the supply of tokenized gold continued to break through, with on-chain inventory reaching approximately 1.2 million ounces, equivalent to about $6.1 billion. Compared to less than $2 billion a year ago, the growth rate is remarkable, reflecting the rapid expansion of investor demand for blockchain hard asset exposure.

Against the backdrop of increasing macro uncertainty dominating the market, tokenized gold is benefiting from two directions: demand for gold itself as a traditional safe-haven asset, and the growing acceptance of on-chain packaged forms as distribution channels.

A bigger conclusion is that tokenization is no longer just a story of payments or stablecoins; it is meaningfully extending to value storage type assets, with gold becoming one of the clearest beneficiaries in the real world.

This Week's Chart Highlights

The prediction market is expected to continue growing this week, with total open contracts reaching approximately $1.3 billion, led by Kalshi and Polymarket. Traders are increasingly expressing their real-time judgments on political, macro, and geopolitical fluctuations through event markets. This pattern is worth noting—it indicates that demand has exceeded mere speculative trading on crypto prices and has extended into a broader reality information and probability pricing market.

Other Noteworthy News

Mastercard launches a large-scale crypto partnership program. On March 11, Mastercard announced a new crypto partnership program covering over 85 institutions, including Binance, Circle, Ripple, PayPal, Gemini, and Paxos. The program aims to leverage stablecoins and digital assets to support cross-border payments, B2B transfers, and global settlements on networks like Solana, Polygon, Avalanche, and Aptos. This marks another step towards the integration of blockchain payment infrastructure with mainstream financial systems.

Coinbase in talks with Bybit for potential investment collaboration. On March 14, reports emerged that Coinbase is in negotiations with Bybit regarding possible investment or strategic cooperation. If the deal goes through, Bybit will move closer to compliance with the U.S. market, while Coinbase gains access to one of the largest offshore exchanges in the world. From a broader perspective, such negotiations affirm a trend: as market structure matures, major global exchanges are increasingly allying with regulated counterparts.

BitGo selected by SoFi to provide infrastructure and institutional distribution support for SoFiUSD. This partnership positions BitGo as the core provider for the issuance, custody, and distribution of stablecoins issued by SoFi Bank, allowing institutional clients to directly access SoFiUSD through the BitGo platform. This further indicates that regulated banks are moving from the experimental stage of stablecoins to actual deployment, supported by crypto-native infrastructure providers.

Kraken's banking division moves closer to direct payment channels in the U.S. Kraken Financial's acquisition of a Fed master account continues to attract attention, seen as one of the most important infrastructural advancements in this field. Direct connection to Fedwire and related payment channels will reduce frictions for institutional fiat transfers and is another typical example of crypto firms accessing core financial pipelines rather than starting anew.