Trading Moment: Bitcoin has strongly broken through 74,000 with seven consecutive days of gains. The 71,300 CME gap still needs to be monitored. Whales and institutions expect ETH to break through 2,400.

Daily market key data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

Macro Market

Last Friday, Trump ordered strikes against Iran's Khark Island military facilities, which did not affect oil infrastructure, but warned that if Iran continued to block the Strait of Hormuz, its oil facilities could be targeted. It is reported that Khark Island handles 90% of Iran's crude oil exports, making it the lifeblood of its economy. Analysts say that if the facilities are damaged, Iran's energy exports will be severely restricted, potentially leading to long-term turmoil in the global oil market. Additionally, Trump is trying to rally multiple countries to form a "Hormuz Escort Alliance," warning that if allies do not respond, it will jeopardize NATO's future.

Notably, the largest single aluminum smelter in the Middle East, Bahrain Aluminum, announced over the weekend that it was forced to cut production capacity by 19% (about 2.2% of global supply) due to disrupted shipping, directly causing LME aluminum prices to soar to their highest level since 2022; UBS warned that more smelters are at risk of closure, decisively raising its aluminum price forecast for 2026 by 13% to $3,250.

Since the outbreak of the Iran conflict two weeks ago, gold prices have cumulatively fallen by about 6%, raising doubts about its safe-haven attribute. On March 13, JPMorgan released a report stating that the initial sell-off was merely a replay of historical patterns, not a sign of a failure in safe-haven function. In the short term, if the stock market continues to worsen or expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve continue to weaken, gold may still face pressure.

However, JPMorgan predicts that if energy disruptions continue and inflation risks worsen, the Federal Reserve's policy will shift to easing, leading gold prices to rise significantly, potentially reaching $6,300 per ounce in Q4 2026.

Affected by the surge in oil prices and geopolitical turmoil, Goldman Sachs noted that from March 3 to 10, asset management institutions net sold $36.2 billion in S&P 500 futures, setting a record for the largest single-week sell-off in a decade, while ETF short positions rose to a three-year high. Goldman Sachs warned that the market is at a critical point: if there is no turnaround in geopolitical issues within two weeks, the stock market may face a risk of collapse; but if the situation stabilizes, the large short positions may trigger a violent short squeeze, driving the market up.

Bitcoin Market

Bitcoin has also improved, with a return of 10.37% last week, marking the best performance since September 2025, and today it broke through the $74,000 resistance zone that had been a barrier for two weeks. The market has seen the eighth consecutive daily green candle, completely breaking away from its strong correlation with tech stocks. Although prices have returned above key levels such as the 50-day and 200-week moving averages, the current bullish sentiment holds only a slight advantage.

Bearish Perspective

Weak macroeconomic data and the lagging effects of geopolitical conflict hang like a sword of Damocles; bearish flag patterns and liquidity gaps on the technical charts suggest that the current rise is likely a trap for bulls.

Trader Killa: Sticking to the short plan, waiting to enter after liquidity above $74,000 is cleared, while pointing out the gap at around $71,300 on the CME must be filled. BTC may be repeating its price pattern from 2022, with the possibility of a brief breakout above the range's peak but ultimately will fall back below $60,000.
Analyst AlphaBTC: Expecting prices to further push higher to hunt for liquidity above, but as the real economic impact of the Middle East conflict becomes apparent in Q2 and Q3, the market will face a new wave of declines.
Cointelegraph analysis: A bearish flag pattern is forming on the daily chart; if it breaks below the lower line, the measured decline could push prices back down to the $51,000 abyss.
Analyst Kyle Doops: Downside risks remain; every time the price pierces $70,000, there is a strong profit-taking sell-off, and the macro backdrop does not support a pure market rebound.

Bullish Perspective

Geopolitical pressure testing has been successfully digested, with the frenzied buying by on-chain whales resonating with strong technical breakouts, targeting higher resistance levels.

Analyst Michaël van de Poppe: The pullback on Friday was purely a result of weekend risk aversion, the market will continue to trend upwards, aiming for the strong resistance zone of $75,000 to $80,000.
Santiment: Whales holding 10 to 10,000 BTC are accelerating their hoarding, controlling 68.17% of the total supply, which is a positive signal for market bottoming and reversal.
Trader CrypNuevo: The long lower shadow on the 4-hour chart is very attractive; if the market opens on Monday and fills that area, prices will surge to $75,000.
Analyst Peak: The support zone at $60,000 perfectly verifies the macro bottoming process; the current price momentum is strong, closely monitoring the critical level of $80,600.
PlanB: Bitcoin remains above $70,000; although the 200-week moving average lurks below, historical patterns may be broken in this cycle.
Trader CJ: Closely monitoring price action above $74,000, expecting the market to complete compression before resistance and then explosively rise to $79,000 to $80,000.

Ethereum Market

Ethereum naturally also rose with Bitcoin, achieving the strongest weekly performance in several months. On-chain data shows that whales are accelerating accumulation, with ShapeShift founder Erik Voorhees massively buying over 29,000 ETH (worth about $61.65 million) in the past week. Additionally, around $2,800, there is a large chip concentration zone of over 3 million ETH, and there has been very little historical supply between $2,200 and $2,800, making prices easily "attracted" upwards. Wintermute founder Evgeny Gaevoy also expresses faith in Ethereum, stating that the Ethereum Foundation is the only team with the resources to realize the cypherpunk dream. Compared to short-term prices, achieving grand goals is more important, and he intends to hold long-term. Trader Ash Crypto believes if ETH can successfully stabilize above $2,400, prices will quickly explode to $2,800.

However, it's worth noting that after testing the upper boundary of the $2,200 range, many traders opted to close positions rather than increase risk exposure, leading to a hindrance in upward momentum, making it difficult to form a continuous breakout in the short term.

Market Dynamics

The fear and greed index has risen slightly, currently shifting from "extreme fear" to the "fear" zone, with the market beginning to see a small-scale altcoin boom. AI-related tokens remain a hot focus in the market, with Bittensor (TAO) attracting attention for its narrative of decentralized computing power, surging over 55% last week. Additionally, some old Meme coins have also begun to rise sharply, with Pepe, Bome, Cheems, Bonk, and Wif all increasing by over 10%.

Meanwhile, DWF Labs partner Andrei Grachev stated that as ETFs absorb market liquidity, institutional funds are rapidly concentrating on BTC, ETH, and RWA sectors, while smaller altcoins lacking narrative support may gradually become marginalized, turning into high-risk speculative assets. Trader Eugene also expressed a bullish turn, noting that several altcoins are exhibiting natural rounded bottom patterns, anticipating a high probability of upward movement in the crypto market in the near term. He believes once $74,000 is effectively broken, the crypto market will rise overall, with mainstream coins like ETH and SOL expected to recover past ranges, respectively returning to $2,400 and $100 levels.

Key Data (as of March 16, 13:00 HKT)

(Data source: CoinAnk, Upbit, SoSoValue, CryptoBubbles)

Bitcoin ETF: $767 million net inflow last week, achieving net inflow for three consecutive weeks
Ethereum ETF: $161 million net inflow last week, achieving net inflow for three consecutive weeks
XRP ETF: $28.07 million net outflow last week
SOL ETF: $10.7 million net inflow last week
Fear and Greed Index: 23 (Fear)
Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: XRP, BTC, ETH, TRUMP, DKA
Sector performance: The crypto sector continues to rise, with the Layer 1 sector up 2.59% in 24 hours, and the AI sector up 2.47%

24-hour liquidation data: A total of 69,545 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $255 million, of which $93.76 million for BTC, $80.85 million for ETH, and $15.56 million for SOL.

Today's Outlook

POAP: Starting March 16, the platform will enter maintenance mode and will no longer actively develop
Coinbase will suspend trading of 25 perpetual contracts on March 16
Binance will launch EWYUSDT (iShares MSCI Korea ETF) index perpetual contracts on March 16
Upbit will delist Flow (FLOW) and Loopring (LRC) on March 16
Arbitrum (ARB) will unlock approximately 93 million tokens on March 16, worth about $9.4 million
Doodles will launch Doodles AI beta version on March 17
MetaDAO will launch the RNGR liquidation portal on March 17
Department of Commerce: U.S.-China economic and trade consultations will be held from March 14 to 17
Nvidia GTC conference will be held (March 16 to 19)
Jensen Huang will give a keynote speech at the GTC conference (March 17, 2:00 PM)
Global Optical Communication Conference (OFC) will be held (March 15 to 19)
Japan announced the release of a portion of oil reserves starting March 16
U.S. judge requires Maduro to appear in court again on March 17

Biggest Gains in Today's Top 100 Cryptocurrencies: Pepe up 18.2%, Bonk up 12.1%, Polkadot up 12%, ASI Alliance up 11.3%, Cardano up 9.8%.

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