In this week of East 8 Time, the sentiment in the cryptocurrency market remains depressed following a round of severe corrections. At this moment, Jack Yi, founder of Liquid Capital, publicly states that he is "fully invested in anticipating a rebound" and provides a relatively clear price expectation—he believes that it is reasonable for BTC to rebound to the range of 85,000 to 90,000 USD after a severe drop. Meanwhile, he judges that ETH below 2000 USD is suitable for short-term speculation as well as holding long-term allocation value. On one side, there is a price halving and spreading panic; on the other, top practitioners are making bold moves and calling for 90,000. This tension itself constitutes the most dramatic contradiction in the current market. On a technical level, conditions for a rebound after the severe drop are brewing. However, fundamental variables such as on-chain activity, industrial application, and regulatory environment have yet to fundamentally recover. The discussion of whether this round of "rebound is merely a position restructuring, rather than the true starting point of a bull market" has become the main line running throughout the text.

Fully invested in anticipating a rebound: The founder’s gamble and confidence

Jack Yi has experienced multiple cycles of bull and bear markets, from the early wild growth of the industry to the subsequent tightening of regulation and waves of institutionalization, he has long been at the front lines of the alternating cycles. In his public statements, he emphasizes the importance of "maintaining effort, a good mindset, and being principled and self-reliant"; behind this survival philosophy is a high adaptability to volatility and a long-term tolerance for risk. It is this mindset, having survived multiple rounds of "roller coaster" experiences, that allows him to dare to be "fully invested in anticipating a rebound" when others are fearful, with a risk preference significantly higher than that of ordinary participants.

In his view, the current retracement of BTC is a typical severe drop. Combining historical experience with the current market structure, he judges that a rebound to the 85,000 to 90,000 USD range is statistically meaningful and emotionally reasonable: on one hand, the prior downward movement caused leveraged derivatives to concentrate in liquidations, creating space for price to recover upward; on the other hand, out-of-market hedging and institutional passive rebalancing often push for a moderate rebound at critical levels. For him, as an institutional founder who views trading in terms of cycles, this feels more like a "reasonable betting window" rather than a reckless all-in gamble.

Compared to BTC, his attitude towards ETH is more oriented towards "value-for-money speculation". Referring to data from analyst Markus Thielen, ETH has cumulatively dropped around 63% since its peak, once falling to around 1837 USD, leading Jack Yi to believe that the price range below 2000 USD is suitable for capturing technical rebounds in the short-term, while in the long-term it can serve as a cost band for gradual accumulation. From a time perspective, he does not expect ETH's rebound to materialize in a very short time but instead values the mid-term opportunity to "quietly complete chip exchanges under adverse sentiment."

Notably, he also revealed that he is preparing for a new fund and new platform. Although he has not disclosed specific models and scales, this action itself tightly binds his personal market views with future business interests: if his anticipated rebound aligns with the next market trend, the fundraising and performance of the new fund will directly benefit; conversely, the notion of being fully invested and aggressive statements may also backfire on reputation and funding. For the founder, this is both a gamble and a stance that binds him to the next market cycle.

Price halving and derivatives: Disconnection between rebound expectations and fundamentals

Using ETH as a sample makes it easier to feel the depth and panic of this drop. According to statistics from Markus Thielen, ETH has dropped approximately 63% from its peak, with prices once receding to around 1837 USD, leading to a loss of market capitalization significantly exceeding the annual volatility range of most traditional assets. This nearly "halved" trend from high points, coupled with consecutive long bearish candlesticks and pessimistic sentiment on social media, brings the narrative of "never returning to the previous high" back to the forefront.

Driving this round of sharp decline has not only been spot selling pressure, the amplification effect of derivative positions has been particularly key. In a high-leverage environment, each time the price breaks support downwards, it triggers a new chain reaction of forced liquidations, further magnifying the decline. When the descent is too steep and short positions in derivatives yield substantial profits, causing leverage to be significantly cleared, prices often rebound sharply in a very short time—this precisely provides real ground for what Jack Yi describes as a "technical bounce": severe drop + leverage clearance = a breeding ground for reverse acceleration.

On technical graphics and sentiment indicators, "oversold" signals have repeatedly appeared, but the fundamental indicators on-chain and in the real world have evidently lagged. Data such as on-chain active addresses, transaction counts, and developer activity have not seen explosive rebounds synchronously, instead showing a "slow recovery or even continued weakness." This time lag between technical and fundamental aspects makes the current rebound expectations highly controversial: one side believes that as long as the price repairs ahead, confidence and applications will follow; the other side emphasizes that without backing from real demand and use cases, any rebound is more a product of liquidity and position speculation.

Therefore, the core debate surrounding this round of rebound points to a consensus: it now feels more like a technical repair and position restructuring, rather than a confirmation signal that long-term fundamentals have turned upward. During this gap period, prices can fluctuate significantly due to leverage, sentiment, and speculative logic, but the narrative on a cyclical level is far from complete.

Funds flowing beneath the surface: From SOL spot ETF to seizures in Korea

While the overall market is under pressure, signals regarding the direction of funds can still be observed in the details. Taking SOL spot ETF as an example, data platform SoSoValue shows a single-day net inflow of approximately 2.8213 million USD. In terms of the total market value of the entire cryptocurrency market, which is in the hundreds of billions, this amount may not seem massive, but its symbolic significance lies in the fact that during times of extreme pessimism, a portion of institutions still slowly accumulate through compliant ETF channels and have not completely exited the market.

This strategy of laying out through ETFs and hedging in the over-the-counter market aligns perfectly with Jack Yi's predicted "rebound window": on the surface, it is a fully invested, emotional gamble, behind which often lies a layered allocation and hedging combination between different tools. Some funds may slowly buy into spot exposure on the ETF side while hedging directional risks in the futures or other derivatives markets, aiming for a smoother profit curve during the rebound instead of a simple directional all-in.

On another front, the flow of funds under regulatory pressure provides a starkly different perspective. The Korean police disclosed that approximately 54.5 billion KRW worth of related assets have been seized over the past five years. This number is not extreme in global regulatory cases but is sufficient to outline a trend: in a tightening compliance framework, gray funds are forced to migrate, either exiting the public market or turning toward more obscure on-chain pathways. Furthermore, Korea's latest incorporation of so-called "dark coins" management into new regulations has further tightened the gray areas at the institutional level.

As a result, two flows of funds have formed misaligned movements:
● Compliant funds are rhythmically entering or repositioning through paths such as ETFs, custodial services, and over-the-counter settlements, providing base liquidity and "safety sentiment" for leading assets.
● Gray funds migrate between different jurisdictions, some being expelled and others being forced to conceal, thereby diminishing their role as "fuel" in short-term speculation and extreme markets.

This structural differentiation may weaken the frequency of extreme rallies and crashes in the short term, but at the same time, it makes every liquidity return and every rebound window increasingly dependent on the rhythm and strategies of compliant funds, rather than solely driven by the emotions of anonymous whales.

Tightening regulation and entry of technology firms: Fundamental foreshadowing yet to materialize

On a macro narrative level, Korea's incorporation of so-called "dark coin" management into new regulations mirrors the global trend toward anti-money laundering and transaction transparency. Stricter identity verification, transaction monitoring, and asset tracing mechanisms will lift the compliance costs for certain market participants, driving away funds that do not wish to expose their identities; but viewed over a longer time horizon, this institutional evolution is beneficial for clearing concerns for compliant institutions and opening a positive doorway for larger-scale asset allocation.

In parallel with tightening regulations is the imagination of "new demand." Asset management firm VanEck has proposed an interesting judgment: the first truly large-scale application of the metaverse may be remote team building and collaboration accomplished through AI agents. This means that in the future digital space, production relationships and collaboration methods may be restructured, and economic activities involving both humans and AI agents naturally require a programmable, cross-regional, and settleable value bearer—this is precisely where public chains and tokens can be embedded.

At a more practical business level, Alibaba's launch of an enterprise-level AI platform "Wukong" signifies that traditional tech giants are systematically betting on the commercialization of AI productivity. Although "Wukong" itself is not directly aimed at token-based financial products, it stands at the intersection of AI and enterprise digital transformation: once internal processes and data assets of enterprises are highly digitized, there exists an imaginative space for the settlement and incentive mechanisms surrounding these assets and services to migrate on-chain or partially align.

These macro and industrial trends have not yet been immediately reflected in price curves and on-chain activity. On one hand, the time required for policy implementation and enterprise landing is counted in "years," while market sentiment typically fluctuates in "weeks" and "months"; on the other hand, the current price dominance remains in the hands of trading and leverage, with the true increment from application and user demand yet to materialize. Therefore, these trends can be seen as foreshadowings for the next round of fundamental support: when the regulatory framework gradually clarifies and AI and metaverse applications begin to scale, the market will retroactively price today's "bottom chips," but that moment is clearly not yet here.

Emotion and belief: From personal mottos to collective gaming

While frequently mentioning "fully invested in anticipating a rebound," Jack Yi has repeatedly echoed his motto—keep working hard, maintain a good mindset, and be principled and self-reliant. This appears somewhat "optimistically against the trend" after experiencing multiple bubbles bursting, running events, and regulatory storms: while many new entrants see only price curves and liquidation screenshots, veteran practitioners talk about rhythm, mindset, and persistence in the long-term logic of the industry; this difference itself is a microcosm of the generational shift in the cryptocurrency market.

However, when this optimistic contrarian stance is bound to "fully invested," it provokes strong polar reactions among retail groups. Some view it as a "beacon of faith," believing that the veteran's willingness to go All-in signifies that the bottom is already visible, leading them to choose to leverage their positions; others remain wary of the inherent conflicts of interest, questioning whether the public calls for bullishness may correlate with their own product fundraising and position resolution. On social platforms, praises and doubts coexist, with emotions rapidly switching between greed and anger.

In contrast, institutional capital operates with much more calmness. Even though the founder verbally emphasizes "fully invested in anticipating a rebound," the true capital allocation is often executed through phased positions, layered holdings, and hedging via futures, options, and structured over-the-counter products. On the surface, it seems like a legendary figure's "gambling story," while in essence, it is a multidimensional risk management issue—ordinary retail investors often overlook the complex risk control frameworks and capital advantages behind the simple act of mimicking "full positions."

In an environment woven with expectations for technical rebounds and regulatory shadows, market participants' emotions oscillate between two extremes: when they see ETFs still having net inflows and leading founders publicly expressing bullishness, greed predominates; when news emerges of seizure data, regulatory upgrades, and price flash crashes, fear quickly undermines the so-called "faith." This back-and-forth tugging exactly forms the true backdrop of the current market: the market is not dead, but confidence is fragile; the story is not finished, but participants are increasingly "voting with their feet."

After the rebound: Will profits be taken at 90,000 or will there be a reshuffle?

In summary, whether it is Jack Yi's "fully invested in anticipating a rebound" or the natural repair following a technical drop, both point towards a realistic judgment: the current situation resembles a round of technical rebound and position restructuring, rather than a confirmation signal that an all-encompassing bull market has returned. Prices can rise rapidly due to derivatives clearing, small-scale net inflow from ETFs, and emotional recovery, but the fundamental variables underlying on-chain demand, macro liquidity, and regulatory environment are still in slow reconstruction.

For ordinary investors, the greatest risk does not lie in "missing the theoretical space of 85,000 to 90,000 USD," but in blindly imitating the "fully invested" posture without having hedging tools, risk control systems, and capital buffers. Once the rebound fails or reverses midway, personal accounts without over-the-counter hedges and structural products to smooth losses will find it hard to bear the drawdowns brought on by high volatility, which is entirely different from the resources and flexibility available to institutional founders.

In the context of regulatory uncertainty and slowly improving fundamentals, a more rational strategy is to control position and pace while recognizing one's position:
● View the "technical rebound" as a window to improve position structure and reduce costs rather than an emotional All-in signal.
● Based on one's own capital volume and risk tolerance, enter and exit in phases, extend the cycle, and avoid using short-term leverage to bet on long-term narratives.
● Maintain tracking of regulatory and industrial trends that have yet to be priced in without excessively overspending one's imagination.

As it remains uncertain whether BTC will genuinely reach the 85,000 to 90,000 USD range, each decision made today effectively pays for oneself in some future cycle. Understanding the story is one thing, but determining how much capital to engage is another.

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