Yesterday I saw a report stating that capital is fleeing the Middle East in droves and starting to pour into Hong Kong and Singapore. Due to the capital flight from Dubai, property prices have plummeted by 35%, the government has started to panic, capital is becoming controlled, and transferring $100,000 now requires scrutiny. This is a core factor behind the recent rise in #BTC and property prices in Hong Kong!

This morning, the news reported that a drone crashed into an oil tank at Dubai International Airport, with flames shooting into the sky. Due to Dubai's strict media control, many people are unable to post on social media and may face a risk of two years in prison, which is truly lamentable. In such a free country, it is ironic that it has been brought back to reality by a clash between the U.S. and Iran!

As the world's busiest international air hub, flights in Dubai are currently completely grounded and are beginning to close indefinitely. This is a sword hanging over Dubai's economy!

Moreover, the UAE's national oil company has shut down over 50% of its crude oil production capacity. Oil loading operations at Fujairah Port have been halted. With oil prices soaring above $100, combined with the closure of flight routes, major global airlines are required to avoid the tumultuous region of the Middle East, further exacerbating the issues in an already struggling airline industry!

I just checked, and from the current list of airlines, the scale of this disaster is far greater than we imagined; it can be said to have directly stalled the engine of the Middle Eastern economy.

Currently, Emirates Airlines has suspended flights. Etihad Airways has suspended flights. Qatar Airways has suspended flights. Air India has indefinitely suspended all flights to the Middle East. Turkish Airlines has halted flights to the Middle East. Lufthansa has suspended flights to Dubai. Air France has suspended flights to Tel Aviv and Beirut.

Currently, British Airways is affected. Virgin Atlantic is affected. Japan Airlines is affected. Norwegian Air, LOT Polish Airlines, SAS, Aegean Airlines, Iberia, Arab Airlines, Pakistan International Airlines, Saudi Arabian Airlines, and Air Algeria are all affected, either grounded or rerouted.

This is not a regional disruption; it is a failure in one of the most critical nodes of the global airline network.

Dubai is not just an airport; it is the largest hub connecting Asia, Europe, Africa, and the Middle East. All flights from Mumbai to London, from Singapore to Frankfurt, from Nairobi to New York, via the Gulf region, are now either canceled, delayed, or have to take detours of thousands of miles to avoid the closed airspace, wasting fuel and incurring high costs, causing airline stock prices to plummet!

Losses are accumulating by the hour, and the fuel consumed by rerouted flights is even more. Airlines are forced to pay high fuel prices to avoid the Gulf region and operate longer routes. For every hour the airspace is closed, the losses for already thin-margin airlines multiply.

Yet no one has mentioned this point so far. Dubai's economy relies on connectivity. The tourism industry, trade, finance, and logistics all depend on the openness of Dubai International Airport. Currently, Dubai's economy is suffering a heavy blow, especially in terms of market confidence, which will take longer to repair!

This war from the United States can be described as killing three birds with one stone. First, the Iranian nuclear threat has been eliminated, and the hegemony of the Middle East returns to the hands of America's ally, Israel. Second, it has curtailed the rapid development of the Middle East; in recent years, the UAE has become the best destination for immigration and net capital inflows, which is now being terminated. Third, it hits Europe and Japan/South Korea hard; the soaring oil prices are least damaging to the U.S. because the U.S. is a net exporter of oil. An oil price of $200 is likely what American consortiums would be pleased to see, but looking at the recent exchange rates in Europe and Japan, capital is being sold off and starting to return to the dollar; this strategy is truly clever!

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