The world is bustling; everyone is here for profit; the world is bustling; everyone is here for profit! Hello everyone, I am your friend Lao Cui, focused on digital currency market analysis, striving to provide the most valuable information about the coin market to fellow coin enthusiasts. Thank you for your attention and likes, and let’s reject any market smoke screens!

With Powell's command, the stock market and cryptocurrency have rarely fallen together, all due to a projected dot plot indicating that long-term interest rates will be raised by 0.1 percentage points over the next three years. Furthermore, it has signaled that there will be no interest rate cuts, which directly caused the U.S. stock market to evaporate by $82 billion and the crypto market by $12 billion; withdrawal phenomena are definitely evident. However, his words were not fierce; he merely mentioned that there would be discussions about the possibility of raising interest rates. As for the cycle theory of rate cuts and hikes, Lao Cui will not elaborate further; today's theme still revolves around the integration of trends and contracts that everyone is concerned about. There was no update in yesterday's article, as it focused more on practical operations addressing a large batch of users' concerns. Looking back, there are still many friends trapped at lower points. Lao Cui will combine medium-term and short-term trends to discuss how to respond after being trapped, especially with Bitcoin and Ethereum, where opportunities for a breakout still exist.

Most new users do not really read Lao Cui's articles. The other day, it was mentioned that the 70,000 mark is strong support, which is laying the groundwork for Powell's speech today. Why does Trump frequently release signals of interest rate cuts? It was also explained in earlier texts: as long as he continues to discuss interest rate cuts, then raising rates is not an option. Yesterday's speech is not particularly important and has little impact, and can only remain in the realm of short-term effects. Looking back, most friends who are trapped are positioned below 70,000 in Bitcoin and below 1900 in Ethereum. Within this range, although Lao Cui frequently called for bullish sentiment, the emotions at that time likely troubled the bullish users, and most trapped users had their long positions too high, always psychologically hinting at even lower positions. So how should one respond to these trapped positions? Regarding this month's outlook, though Lao Cui continues to see 80,000, there may even be a turning point.

Focusing on a specific user's situation, one user entered the market near 2400 in Ethereum (when the last bull market began), which was around 4900 during the 2025 surge, averaging down to 3600. This layout is quite clear to everyone, exemplifying Lao Cui's typical averaging strategy, where the advice previously given was to take profits in batches at 4500-5000, which can also be seen in last year's articles. Clearly, taking profits went awry; since the end of last year, hoping for a boost from two interest rate cuts has also failed. This entire setup is almost identical to Yi Lihua's, so the liquidation point rose directly to around 2200-2300. After the decline began, ever since dropping below 3000, it has been controlled with frequent locking actions to manage the liquidation point. Overall, the locked positions are already below 2500, and Lao Cui's advice is to remain locked and wait for new lows, with the new low running to 1730 causing panic among holders.

After the new lows, the recovery has led many users to become bearish, as the degree of decline has exceeded expectations, causing many friends to begin believing there will be new lows. Earlier, Lao Cui also noticed a lot of commentary, with the most conservative estimates being Ethereum below 1500 and Bitcoin starting with 5, which has directly led to trapped users choosing to go short at the 1830 position. To date, those short positions remain locked, with little possibility for operational release. Therefore, the choice for this user, basically, is to add to positions as if holding spot. Reviewing the entire process, this user's biggest problem was not exiting the high position mentioned above, and not leaving during the pullback, leading to a less than ideal locked position. After completing the locking at 2500, Lao Cui's advice was to gradually release the short positions, maintaining the liquidation point below the new low of 1700. Due to multiple mistakes along the way, leading to mental instability, the final outcome is only reliant on adding to the position to operate further.

This user's inability to release their position fundamentally stems from personal factors rather than market conditions; the overall locked position directly leads to liquidation occurring below a hundred points after release. As of now, at three in the morning, during a sudden conversation with Lao Cui, this user expressed optimism, hoping Lao Cui would teach them how to break free, but it is essentially too late. Lao Cui can also candidly say that many users encounter this problem; even if this time the market could drop to 1700, most users wouldn't give up their short positions, and even more extreme, if the market drops below 1000, these users also wouldn’t release their positions. The entire mindset relies entirely on following market emotional fluctuations, relying on others' rescues is fruitless. If you have reached this phenomenon, you must prepare for the worst; to break free, you must have a complete mental strategy. Today, Lao Cui will teach you how to rely on your own comprehension; if you can follow what Lao Cui says, there is still hope.

First, a liquidation position of 100 points is extremely dangerous. Locking at 2500, Lao Cui's reserved liquidation position is essentially controlled within 300-500 points. If you have this space, then after the bearish emotions dissipate, you can directly liquidate all short positions. A position within 300 points can only be released step by step, and overall release requires a complete bull market, meaning this bull market can only provide answers based on liquidation. You can first release one-third of the short positions, pulling the liquidation point into a controllable range, and reducing losses to one-third for proportional operations, gradually chipping away at the loss. For even more extreme users who may have locked positions just a few dozen points from liquidation, Lao Cui's advice is to admit defeat, wait for this wave of bears to end, and re-establish long positions. This is almost the same as above; there is no need to waste energy on this single position; cutting losses and getting a good night's sleep is the best choice for you.

The original text is created by the public account: Lao Cui Talks About Coins. For assistance, you can contact directly.

Lao Cui's message: Investing is like playing chess. A skilled player can anticipate five, seven, or even ten moves ahead, while a weaker player can only foresee two or three moves. The stronger player considers the big picture, strategizes on broader trends, and does not fixate on one piece or locality, aiming for victory in the end; the weaker player fights for every inch, frequently converts long and short positions, contesting only for short-term gains, and ends up trapped repeatedly.

This material is for learning reference only and does not constitute trading advice. If you trade based on this, you bear the consequences!

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。