The world is bustling, everyone seeks profit; the world is bustling, everyone goes for profit! Hello everyone, I am your friend Lao Cui, focusing on digital currency market analysis, striving to convey the most valuable cryptocurrency market information to广大币友, welcome everyone's attention and likes, refuse any market smoke bombs!

I took a glance at the market, not much to discuss, Bitcoin is still fiercely contesting the 70,000 mark, while Ethereum is also exchanging hands around 2100. Why does Lao Cui think that 70,000 has support? This is also the feedback given by the data; everyone needs to have a certain responsive reaction to the dynamics of the giants. Looking at the bottom-buying capital from MicroStrategy and BlackRock, both have invested nearly 5 billion in asset allocation at the 70,000 mark. Therefore, in the short term, 70,000 will become a price level they recognize for purchase, at least in the short term this position is reliable. Meanwhile, the selling at the 76,000 mark requires finding another exit, that is, ancient wallets are still above the selling window. Buying and selling are not unified with the giants; everyone can consider the supporters of the bulls as BlackRock and MicroStrategy, while the selling from other wallets comes from individual whales. This is Lao Cui's earlier definition of the changing of the guard bull market; BlackRock's operations will definitely put the market on the right track.

As for the short-term definition, 70,000 is not in Lao Cui's consideration scope; with the support from the giants, the downside depth is at most a few thousand points. Let's look at the entire financial cycle, I previously talked about how to judge the market. Among the known conditions, the dollar is strengthening, American treasury yields are rising, while U.S. stocks are weakening at the same time as dollar assets weaken. From all the integrated information, one can clearly see that inflation has indeed come, and no other funds can intervene in the U.S. stock market. Looking at gold again, compared to previous trends, it is clearly weakening at this stage and does not possess the capacity to surge. From an economic perspective, most people's judgment is that the conflict will end in the short term. So after the military impact is eliminated, what kind of economic trend might we see? Naturally, gold will continue to weaken, and the U.S. will re-enter a weak dollar strategy; this will be the timing for the bull market to start. Before that, the cryptocurrency market will undergo frequent washouts until everyone loses confidence in the bulls.

Regarding the turning point between bulls and bears, Lao Cui will directly share some hard facts. The short-term and medium-term levels will not see the same trend as in 2025, which is a one-sided decline. The recent trend shows clear signs of manipulation by market makers; Lao Cui has always emphasized that the confidence in controllable declines comes from on-chain data, including the current round at the 76,000 mark, which only witnessed spot selling. Additionally, the U.S. dollars sold are still lurking in wallet addresses, not liquidated. This also indirectly indicates that perhaps in points they consider worth purchasing, they will still re-enter the market, a typical behavior to lure out short positions. For us investors, how to judge the turning point? Lao Cui offers a few key signals: 1. The end of military conflict (likely to have a result within a week to half a month) 2. The specifics of X's Bitcoin trading service launch (must have stablecoin payments) 3. No impact on interest rate cut signals (no rate hikes are good for rate cuts) 4. Smooth progress of the stablecoin legislation. 5. The gold market no longer absorbs funds. 6. Success in the tokenization of Nasdaq.

Lao Cui summarizes: If three of the above five lines can be achieved this year, Bitcoin will reach new highs (Lao Cui strongly believes in a bullish trend and new highs will occur). The condition most likely to affect the short-term trend is the resolution of the conflict; once both sides decide to stop fighting, the first impact will be on the energy market, followed by gold, and lastly the cryptocurrency market. Ending conflicts is good news for the crypto market, while the rest of the markets are negative news. Moreover, X launching crypto market trading services will likely be implemented in April, as long as gold does not see a sharp increase, funds will flow out. From an overall perspective, achieving three conditions is relatively easy; if extreme favorable conditions occur, meaning all five conditions are met, Bitcoin will at least hit the 150,000 mark (low probability event). Finally, back to our short term, it is nothing more than observing whether the 70,000 mark can stand firm. Lao Cui's suggestion is for everyone to pause first; if you have no positions, stopping trading is the best choice. For users who are trapped, this round of decline will be one of the few opportunities for you to unload your short positions; you must seize it, as there will not be many opportunities for unloading later. If you miss it, perhaps this bull market will not bring you any profits again, so grasp the timing! The fluctuations in small coins are becoming more intense; at the end of the article, I remind everyone not to be distracted by small coins, the focus should still return to Bitcoin and Ethereum; this year's returns are sufficient. If you have specific questions, you can directly ask Lao Cui, all contact information is available!

The original creation of the public account: Lao Cui Talks Coins. If you need help, you can contact directly.

Lao Cui's message: Investing is like playing chess; experts can see five steps, seven steps or even ten steps ahead, while beginners can only see two or three steps. The adept consider the bigger picture, plan the larger trends, not being fixated on a single piece of land, aiming for the final win in chess; the inexperienced will fight for every inch, frequently switching between long and short positions, only contending for a brief period, often resulting in being trapped.

This material is for learning reference only and does not constitute buy or sell advice; trading based on this is at your own risk!

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