The current market is in a macro repricing phase dominated by geopolitical factors. The escalation of the situation regarding Iran is increasing uncertainty regarding energy supply, inflation paths, and global growth prospects. Previously, the market was still trading on expectations of more accommodative policies, but as the risk of conflict escalation rises, the pace of interest rate cuts has begun to be reassessed, with a gradually increasing consideration of a more hawkish policy path.

From the current pricing perspective, the market still tends to view this round of shocks as a temporary inflation disturbance, with the implicit assumption that the impacts from energy and shipping are relatively controllable and will ease within a reasonable timeframe. However, as risks continue to accumulate, the linkages between energy, interest rates, and risk appetite are strengthening, and the macro narrative is shifting from "short-term inflation shock" to "potential growth shock." During this process, Bitcoin's performance is beginning to show structural characteristics that differ from traditional assets.

Inflation Shock Dominates Pricing: Energy and Interest Rates Reshape Risk Asset Performance

In the first phase of this shock, the core driver remains the inflationary pressure brought on by rising oil prices. Higher Brent crude oil prices are pushing up inflation expectations and tightening financial conditions, which creates pressure on risk assets. In this phase, both stocks and Bitcoin are struggling to fully avoid adjustment pressure.

However, compared to traditional risk assets, Bitcoin has a key difference: its price has already undergone a noticeable decline, and the potential passive selling pressure in the market is relatively limited. This "position advantage" makes it demonstrate stronger resilience under the same macro shock. Meanwhile, in a high oil price environment, real interest rates remain elevated, the opportunity cost of gold increases, while Bitcoin has no physical holding costs, thus gradually gaining an advantage in relative comparisons.

As the shock continues, the market may enter a second phase, transitioning from inflation concerns to growth concerns. Industrial commodities like copper are weakening, starting to reflect suppressed demand, and global growth expectations are marginally weakening. In this phase, simple inflation logic will no longer suffice to explain market dynamics, and the macro pricing framework is beginning to change.

From Growth Concerns to Policy Responses: Liquidity Expectations May Become a Key Variable

If the shock continues further, the market is very likely to enter a third phase, which is the policy response phase. When growth pressures increase and financial conditions continue to tighten, policymakers often intervene through fiscal or monetary means, including price controls, subsidies, or broader liquidity releases.

The key change in this phase is that the market pricing will shift from "inflation-led" to "liquidity expectation-led." Historical experience shows that in an environment of liquidity being released again, Bitcoin often benefits from its non-sovereign asset attributes, showing greater resilience.

At the same time, the structure of global capital flows is also changing. Since the Russian central bank's reserves were frozen, the market's trust in the "neutrality" of reserve assets has been shaken, and resource-exporting countries are adjusting their asset allocation structure, gradually shifting from U.S. Treasury bonds and stocks to gold and other assets. This change compresses the global liquidity space and raises long-term interest rates, making the macro environment more complex. In this context, Bitcoin's relative performance depends not only on risk appetite but is also closely related to its position in the liquidity cycle. Once the market starts pricing in expectations of policy easing, Bitcoin's relative advantage may be further strengthened.

Overall, the evolutionary path of this macro shock is transitioning from "oil price-driven inflation shock" to "growth shock under energy constraints," and may ultimately enter a "policy intervention-led liquidity phase." During this process, traditional assets face dual pressures from interest rates and growth, while Bitcoin, having already undergone a certain degree of price adjustment and being more sensitive to liquidity, is showing relative resilience.

For investors, the key at this stage is not the short-term volatility itself, but identifying the phase switch in the macro narrative. Once the market shifts from inflation logic to liquidity logic, Bitcoin may transform from a passively pressured asset to a relatively benefited asset in a new round of pricing.

The above perspectives are drawn from BIT on Target, Contact us for the complete report of BIT on Target.

Disclaimer: The market is risky, and investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute investment advice. Trading digital assets may carry significant risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. BIT is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided herein.

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