On February 28, the United States and Israel launched military strikes against Iran. Iran promptly blocked the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off the 20 million barrels of oil that pass through daily. Three weeks later, IEA Director Fatih Birol provided a number on March 23 at the National Press Club in Australia: the global daily oil supply loss caused by this war amounts to 11 million barrels.

This figure exceeds the combined losses from the 1973 oil embargo and the 1979 Iranian Revolution crises.

More than 40 energy infrastructures in 9 Middle Eastern countries have been damaged to varying extents. IEA data during the same period indicated that global natural gas supply losses reached 14 billion cubic meters, nearly double the loss in Europe during the Russia-Ukraine conflict (7.5 billion cubic meters). In three weeks, the quantified impact of this conflict on the energy market has already surpassed all of the 1970s.

But supply losses are only half the story. The other half is that there are clear beneficiaries of this crisis.

Putin's Unexpected Windfall

Before the war in Iran began, the trading price of Urals crude oil was less than $60 per barrel. This price had been locked in for nearly three years as a direct result of Western sanctions. After the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war, the US and Europe implemented a price cap on Russian oil, and the long-standing discount of Urals crude relative to the international benchmark Brent was maintained at $30 to $40. This discount is the most direct signal of sanctions at work.

The war in Iran changed all of this. After the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a huge gap appeared in the global oil market, forcing buyers to seek alternative supplies. According to data from the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), the total revenue from Russian fossil fuel exports in the first two weeks of March reached €7.7 billion, averaging €513 million per day, an increase of 8.7% compared to February's €472 million per day. Among this, daily oil export revenue was €372 million, with an additional earnings of €672 million (approximately $777 million) over two weeks.

Urals crude oil rose from less than $60 to about $90 within three weeks, an increase of nearly 80%. According to Al Jazeera reports, energy analyst George Voloshin pointed out that during the same period, Brent also rose from about $65 to over $110, but the key factor is not the absolute prices, but the price difference between the two. The discount of Urals to Brent significantly narrowed from about $40 before the war. Moscow Times reported on March 16 that Urals crude delivered to India once had a premium over Brent, which had never occurred since the sanctions took effect.

In other words, the economic wall built by three years of sanctions was partially dismantled by three weeks of war in Iran.

The Trump administration announced a 30-day sanctions exemption on March 12, allowing countries to purchase Russian oil in transit. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that this move would release around 140 million barrels of supply. However, analysts generally believe that the exemption conditions of "not providing significant financial benefits" are nearly impossible to enforce. Meanwhile, the IEA announced the release of 400 million barrels of strategic oil reserves, the largest in history. This exemption will expire on April 11, when the market will face a new round of uncertainty.

India is the most direct actor. CREA data shows that in the first two weeks of March, India purchased Russian fossil fuels totaling €1.3 billion, averaging €89 million per day, a 48% increase from February's average of €60 million per day. Al Jazeera confirmed reports that at least seven oil tankers originally heading to China diverted to India, with one named Aqua Titan arriving at an Indian port on March 21. While the whole world is anxious about oil prices, the oil trade between Moscow and New Delhi is accelerating.

Who is Paying the Bill?

The supply-side losses and income from beneficiaries will ultimately be transmitted to the consumption side. American consumers are the most direct bearers of this impact.

AAA data shows that the national average price of gasoline in the US rose from $2.98 before the war to $3.96 on March 23, an increase of 33%. The average price in California has reached $5.56, and Kansas has the lowest at $3.23. The average diesel price is $5.07, the highest since 2022.

Fortune reported that this round of rising oil prices has precisely consumed the tax refunds that American households have just received.

The aviation industry is one of the first sectors to feel the impact. Platts assessment data shows that US jet fuel prices increased by over 60% in three weeks, with some regions seeing prices double. United Airlines became the first major US airline to officially announce capacity reductions. CEO Scott Kirby stated in an internal memo that the company is preparing for oil prices to reach $175 per barrel, which means annual fuel costs will increase by about $11 billion, more than double the company's "best year ever" profits. United will cut 5% of its flights in the second and third quarters.

The impact is spreading globally. According to CNBC reports on March 21, Delta Air Lines also warned of potential capacity reductions. Euronews reported that Qantas, SAS, and Thai Airways have already raised prices, while Air New Zealand has canceled over 1,000 flights.

Even the gig economy has been affected. According to a report by the Philadelphia Inquirer on March 23, DoorDash has begun offering drivers weekly fuel subsidies of $5 to $15 and 10% cash back on fuel purchases in response to a decrease in orders due to rising fuel prices. When a food delivery platform needs to pay for a war in the Middle East, the length of the transmission chain of the impact needs no further explanation.

In three weeks of war in Iran, the global daily loss is 11 million barrels of oil, Russia earned nearly $800 million more in 15 days, and American consumers' fuel costs rose by one-third. After the expiration of the sanctions exemption on April 11, this transmission chain will continue to extend.

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