What to know : Bitcoin has gained 4% in 24 hours to $71,000, outperforming gold despite ongoing Middle East tensions and weakness in U.S. equity futures. More than $550 million in liquidations hit mostly short positions, while declining open interest suggests the rally isn’t driven by new leveraged participation. Altcoins are showing relative strength, but concerns remain over DeFi weakness and fading memecoin performance.
Bitcoin is currently trading at around $71,000 having risen by 0.25% since midnight UTC, adding to a broader 24 hour rally of 4%.
Asian hours were favorable to AI tokens, with bittensor (TAO) and adding 5.8% and 4.1% apiece. The rise followed comments from Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, who claimed that artificial general intelligence (AGI) — a term for AI that matches the cognitive abilities of human beings — has already been achieved.
Still, the main market driver continues to be the war in the Middle East following fresh strikes in Tel Aviv and Lebanon on Tuesday. On Monday, U.S. President Donald Trump said a 48-hour ultimatum over the Strait of Hormuz had been put on hold following "good and productive" peace talks with Iran, although Iranian officials called it "fake news."
Oil remains at around $100 per barrel while U.S. equities are in the red, with Nasdaq 100 futures and S&P 500 futures both down by around 0.1% since midnight.
The crypto market has remained relatively resilient during the conflict, with bitcoin outperforming gold, a traditional haven asset, since the start of the war.
Derivatives positioning
- Over $550 million in leveraged crypto futures bets have been liquidated in 24 hours, with shorts or bearish bets taking most of the hit.
- Bitcon's 4%, 24-hour price gain isn't backed by increased participation in futures, as open interest (OI) in major USD- and USDT-denominated futures has declined to 228,000 BTC from 229,000 BTC.
- A similar pattern is seen in ETH, XRP and SOL markets.
- DOGE, ADA, SUI, AVAX, LINK, and PAXG futures have seen open interest decline by as much as 10%.
- Most tokens have seen aggressive bidding, as evidenced by their positive 24-hour cumulative volume deltas. CRO, XMR and TON stand out with negative CVDs.
- Perpetual funding rates for majors also paint a bullish picture, with values between 5% to 10%.
- On Deribit, BTC and ETH puts continue to show a net bias for protective put options across all time frames. However, they now trade at 5 to 6 volatility point premium to calls versus 8 to 10 early Monday.
- Block flows featured demand for the BTC put condor, a directionally neutral strategy designed to profit from low volatility. In ETH's case, risk reversals dominated flows.
Token talk
- Several altcoins have outperformed bitcoin since midnight, with HYPE, OP and CRV all gaining around 3% as traders rotated into more speculative assets in anticipation of a wider market breakout.
- The bitcoin-dominant CoinDesk 20 (CD20) Index is up by 0.3% on Tuesday, while the altcoin-heavy CoinDesk 80 (CD80) has risen by more than 1%, indicating improving sentiment among the altcoin sector.
- The caveat to the improving sentiment is the state of the DeFi industry. One market watcher described the current landscape as a "really dark" period after Balancer Labs shut down operations and the Resolv stablecoin project was hacked Another criticized the lack of yield opportunities coupled the inherent risk that comes with using DeFi protocols.
- The memecoin sector is another feeling the strain. The CoinDesk Memecoin Index (CDMEME) is the worst performing benchmark on Tuesday, rising just 0.1% with several of the index components losing 3%-5%.
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